[TrueHoop] Notes From MIT (Rockets related)

durvasa · 06:25 PM

Morey held his MIT Sloan Sports Analytics conference last weekend, and TrueHoop blogger Henry Abbott was there and took some notes. Here is a sampling which I think would be of particular interest to us Rockets fans

quote:

1. John Huizinga, University of Chicago Business school professor (and Yao Ming agent) says sports businesses need to cater to people's recession feelings. "You want to eat meatloaf in a recession," he says, "and sushi in a boom." The idea is that comforting things will be popular now, and adventerous things might be more appealing when the economy is healthier.

8. Huizinga and Sandy Weil were responsible for the hot hand research that I still promise will be on TrueHoop in more detail at some point. It was a huge research project. It shook out a lot of stuff that has nothing to do with hot hands, too. For instance, how you get the ball matters tremendously to how likely you are to score with it. If you get the ball in a liveball turnover (a steal for instance) your shooting percentage is 12% higher than normal. If you get the ball from an offensive rebound, it's 8% higher. Home teams, meanwhile, shoot 1.5% better -- so you can see these advantages are major. This is part of the reason players who force turnovers are more valuable than they might first appear. Another special thing about steals is that (I can't remember who told me this) it may well be a marker for players with great hands, which can have great benefits beyond steals.

10. Huizinga and Weil found that possession is nine tenths of the law, meaning ... If a big man hits a shot, he's slightly more likely to get the ball again next time. If a guard hits a shot, he's very likely take the next shot. Guards, of course, decide who gets the ball, which is probably no coincidence.

11. Mark Cuban talked about a lot of the sophisticated statistics the Mavericks use. And then he was asked what kind of data they share with players. The example he gave was so basic -- they would tell someone if they were hot from a particular spot. Another team stat guy told me that he would keep his advanced insights to himself, unless it was encouragement to keep doing what they're doing, which was always welcomed by players and coaches. Mike Zarren says that on the Celtics, he shares what he believes to be important. "I've never been told: Don't tell me that," he reports. "I have," retorts the Nuggets' Dean Oliver. Oliver's case seems to be the more typical. Which makes me think that there must be a lot of insight that is not being put to use, and therefore there might be a little premium on players and coaches who are savvy in integrating this kind of input.

13. A recurring theme was that in Houston, Daryl Morey has a big team of analysts. Way bigger than any other teams, it appears. Dean Oliver, for instance, says: "I'm a one man shop. He's sitting over there with ten or eleven guys." John Hollinger adds: "Luckily for Daryl, there's no luxury tax on analysts."

17. Daryl Morey said that basketball is not like many professions. The goal is to be the very best. One team out of thirty goes home happy. On Wall Street, or in most things, it is enough to be really good year in and year out. But in basketball, you have to be the absolute best, or else you have failed. Morey believes that, in that environment, one is justified in taking great risks. Why does it seem like he's talking about Ron Artest?

20. Mark Cuban: "Hiring coaches is the hardest job that there is. Period. End of story." Part of his assessment of Rick Carlisle, he explained, involved noticing that Carlisle very often played lineups that Cuban's database deemed to be the most effective from the available roster.

21. Daryl Morey said that one of the things that is most knowable, from the modern use of statistics, is when to go for the two-for-one as the clock is expiring. On this one little thing, there are thousands and thousands of examples, the efficacy of which can be easily sliced and diced. Unfortunately, he didn't share the specific lessons.

22. Morey also said that he really did not consult with his coaches on personnel moves, because it would be awkward if he consulted them, they said they didn't like the move, and then Morey made the trade or signing anyway. In the aftermath, however, he says he explains the rationale to the coaching staff. UPDATE: I originally wrote this note saying he didn't consult coaches, which is how I had it in my notes. Morey assures me he does consult coaches.

There were a lot of other interesting notes, so you can click the link for that.

Ziggy · 03-13-2009, 05:23 PM

Thats crazy that he doesn't consult the coach before trades. Which means he definitely doesn't consult Yao, which could play a role in why he hasn't signed that extension.

But how weird is that to not consult the coach. I mean one day Alston is your point guard, the next its Brooks. Weird. You'd think that would create a bad situation.

jedicro · 03-13-2009, 05:28 PM

Am I correct to assume that they don't think much of the Maverick's statistics? Or is it just that that one example he gave was basic?

durvasa · 03-13-2009, 05:28 PM

Perhaps what he meant is that he doesn't specifically discuss the players he's looking acquire. I'm sure there's communication between the basketball operations people and the coaches so there's mutual understanding on what's working and what needs to be improved.

But is it any less awkward to make a trade the coach doesn't like and that he wasn't consulted about? I don't really understand that.

durvasa · 03-13-2009, 05:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jedicro

Am I correct to assume that they don't think much of the Maverick's statistics? Or is it just that that one example he gave was basic?

Henry Abbott wrote it ... I'm not sure if he meant that in a derogatory way.

Ziggy · 03-13-2009, 05:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jedicro

Am I correct to assume that they don't think much of the Maverick's statistics? Or is it just that that one example he gave was basic?

I know Cubans' rankings are looked at as a joke but I am pretty sure their stuff is legit. Cuban was probably just protecting the data. Everything is so secretive.

I think the coolest use of that data isn't providing insights to your players on offense but rather using it to scout the opposition and putting those guys in tougher situations. I think Battier uses some of that info in that manner.

redao · 03-13-2009, 05:36 PM

Quote:

Morey also said that he really did not consult with his coaches on personnel moves,......

Is this true?

How old is Morey? 36? Come on, you have to ask your coach to trade away his players...

Go_Korea · 03-13-2009, 05:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by durvasa

But is it any less awkward to make a trade the coach doesn't like and that he wasn't consulted about? I don't really understand that.

At first, I had the same thought.

But after thinking about it, I think it depends on the coaches.

In Rick's case, he tries to adjust his system around players. You don't see Yao only in the high post (like Brad Miller); you see Yao in the low post a lot. We haven't noticed Lowry 25% shooting beyond the arc; we've seen his amazing driving ability and the ability to kick out to a shooter.

But a coach who forces players into their system like Larry Brown or Terry Porter, might cause problems with Morey ways of doing this. They come in, and force a certain defense/offense to the players. It looks like it worked with the Bobcats, but for Larry, it didn't work with the Knicks. Terry Porter did a good job with the Bucks, but did a HORRIBLE job with the Suns.

huypham · 03-13-2009, 06:20 PM

There's been a correction:

UPDATE: I originally wrote this note saying he didn't consult coaches, which is how I had it in my notes. Morey assures me he does consult coaches

durvasa · 03-13-2009, 06:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by huypham

There's been a correction:

UPDATE: I originally wrote this note saying he didn't consult coaches, which is how I had it in my notes. Morey assures me he does consult coaches

Thanks, I edited the OP.