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[NYTimes] The No-Stats All-Star

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by bfunw, Feb 14, 2009.

  1. bfunw

    bfunw Contributing Member

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  2. NotInMyHouse

    NotInMyHouse Contributing Member

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    It's isn't stated outright, but page 7 is an example of the "high leverage moments" the Rockets are tracking as their proprietary statistic. Was worth reading the article just for that.
     
  3. roksoer

    roksoer Member

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    good article, wrong season
     
  4. iconoclastic

    iconoclastic Member

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    That was a great article. It touched on Battier's strengths and weaknesses and gave some insight into why and how they are what they are. Also, some lols:

    “I used to try to talk to people, but then I figured out no one actually liked me very much.”

    This article just goes to show how great our GM is. In Morey we trust!
     
  5. thacabbage

    thacabbage Contributing Member

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    This is pretty disingenuous.

    EDIT: as is this...

    Right, because McGrady played 82 games in 2005-2006. Oh, wait.

    EDIT 2: This article is such a joke so far
    Losing team? Um, ok. Let's pretend we were a cellar dwellar before Shane got here.
     
    #5 thacabbage, Feb 14, 2009
    Last edited: Feb 14, 2009
  6. krockets

    krockets Member

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    Eye opening article... Great read!
     
  7. DOHCtah

    DOHCtah Member

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    Hmmm I enjoyed this article alot and thought it was very well written. i especially loved the chronological format..

    However, one thing that bugs me is that the writer chooses to include statistics that support his cause, while conveniently ignoring some others
     
  8. echu888

    echu888 Member

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    on page 4 so far, enjoying the article ... I like the Vegas comparison... so many people go to Vegas thinking they can beat the odds but in the long run, the house always wins... and the amount of research, data, and planning that casinos put into their houses is immense. I like having that level of preparation in our acquisition of players and the composition of our team.

    For those who always clown on Battier's intangibles, this article gives a glimpse into what some of those things are.
     
  9. mike_lu

    mike_lu Member

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    ------------
    Well the key Rocket roster changes from 2005-06 to 2006-07 was Shane Battier, unless you count the departure of Derek Anderson, Jon Barry, Stromile Swift, or the additions of Bonzi Wells, Steve Novak, Scott Padgett, Kirk Snyder, VSpan or another year under the belt for Chuck Hayes/Luther Head as the catalyst for the Rockets' improved record. TMac played a little more in 2006-07, but Yao Ming less.

    And Memphis went from 49-33 in 2005-06 to 22-60 in 2006-07 (and 2007-08 when Rudy Gay was scoring 20ppg), and their key roster changes were the loss of Shane Battier and the additions of Rudy Gay and Stromile Swift. Yes Gasol only played 59 games in 2006-07, but Damon Stoudamire only played 27 games in 2005-06 but played 62 games in 2006-07. And the injuries to Gasol didn't really impact their record that much (win-loss ratio with/without Gasol not that much different).

    (See http://www.basketball-reference.com)

    Plus we all give credit to Morey for finding Scola via trade, and Landry/Brooks late in the first round, and have decent trust/confidence for his system of evaluating talent, but the only guy that Morey really goes out of his way to praise is Battier. There's got to be something in that right?
     
  10. thacabbage

    thacabbage Contributing Member

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    After finishing the article, I think that was overall extremely interesting, but I completely disagree with the central thesis and tone. I know I'm in the minority here.

    You can't simply tout a guy for doing the little things (an example in the article was tipping the rebound) but turn a blind eye to the fact that they are completely incapable of the big things. And yes, I realize the article made it very clear that he isn't very gifted, athletic etc. But it's disingenuous to present a guy as some necessity to winning (we apparently made a 16 game improvement due to his acquisition), when the case should actually be 'here's a guy with no ability who somehow manages to help his team.'

    I'm not a Battier hater. I appreciate these small things he does to help the team. But it's not truthful to overlook what he doesn't do and then present him in this manner. Again, it's the presentation of the argument behind the Battier-lovefest.

    For example, I don't think many people here would choose Shane over Mario Elie, defensively. I'm pretty sure Mario didn't have all these savant mental powers that Shane possesses, but he was a superior defender due to his superior physical gifts (stronger, a tad bit quicker than Shane). Same thing with Robert Horry shutting down Hall of Fame power forwards in the title run. He was long and extremely athletic - I seriously doubt as smart as Shane.

    My point here is, Shane's defenders present him as some necessity when it's pretty well established that guys using only their natural abilities can do just as much if not more. They overlook what he's not doing, or incapable of doing, by pointing to these things he is doing. I can approve of a narrative that trumpets his ability to overcome his inabilities, but not the one that is being presented.
     
  11. thacabbage

    thacabbage Contributing Member

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    So what was the difference when we won 52 games in 2005 and then dropped to 34 the next year?

    You just compared the loss of Gasol with the loss of Damon Stoudamire the previous season as equal components. Enough said.

    Because that's the only guy he has to go out of his way to praise due to his lack of tangibles. He doesn't have to say "damn, look at all this great stuff Luis is doing for the overall motion in our offense" because it's pretty clear what he's bringing. And no, I'm not claiming any other guy on our team (or even the league, this extreme doesn't affect my argument) brings as many intangibles/mental prowess as Shane does. My point is merely as rebuttal to your assertion of being the recipient Morey's praise as some undeniable virtue. And Hell, why wouldn't he praise Shane? I'm just as impressed by the things in that article as anyone else is. But it's the wrong damn narrative. He's a guy with little physical ability doing all the little things to help his team win, not an irreplaceable component that couldn't be made expendable by a competent athlete.
     
  12. dookiester

    dookiester Member

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    very well put
     
  13. meadowlark

    meadowlark Member

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    This is an excellent indicator that Shane is on the trading block...building up trade value.
     
  14. GlassHalfFull

    GlassHalfFull Member

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    Exactly what I was thinking.
     
  15. Rasselas

    Rasselas Contributing Member

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    Don't necessarily agree with all of the article--(I'm a longtime critic of the trade)--but as someone who lives in new york, it was exciting as hell to check out The Times, expecting another article on the stimulus bill, and see a huge, wet, open-mouth kiss for our own Shane Battier. Crazy love from The Times.
     
  16. Carl Herrera

    Carl Herrera Contributing Member

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    Because the NY Times is somehow a part of Daryl Morey's machine?
     
  17. aelliott

    aelliott Contributing Member

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    Huh? The author was stating facts. How is that disingnuous? Are you disputing the fact that Battier was traded to the Rockets after the season where they finished 34-48? Did the Rockets not win 52 games the first year Battier was here? We did win 55 games last year and had a 22 game win streak right?

    Again, what are you disagreeing with? Do you think that Battier is an elite athlete or top scorer? Are you disputing the fact Battier's teams have most always been winning teams? That's what he's saying.

    He's not saying Battier is personally responsible for everything that happens. There's obviously lot of facts that effect the outcome of games and Battier is just one of them. Morey is more than capable for recongizing and accounting for that. Morey and his stats guys don't have a magic formula that will always succeed, that's impossible. What they are trying to do is to put the team in the situations that give them the best changce to succeed. It's exactly the same theory as card counting, but just like card counting you don't always win. Some days you can be successful and all it gets you is that you turn a 12 point loss into a 3 point loss.

    Does simply having Battier on your team guarentee you'll win? No, of course not. But he does contribute greately to winning. That's a proven fact that Marey and the stat guys have tracted over the history of Battier's career. The most likely reason for the correlation between Battier and team success is most likely that a) Battier does contribute to team success and winning and b) management that is smart enough to recognize Battier's contribution above the standard box score stats are also smart enough to realize the other things that effect the game and also try and maximize them too.
     
  18. tiger0330

    tiger0330 Contributing Member

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    Great read. One of the most interesting basketball articles I've read. I still have a problem reconciling Moreys comment about Shane being slow, can't dribble and having no body control along with scoring less than 5ppg in playing over 30mpg in being so valuable to the team. I guess boxing out a rebounder, taking a charge and blue collar defense have their place but I would rather have Rudy Gay.
     
  19. northeastfan

    northeastfan Member

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    Great article. Let's see if Morey and Battier and get the Rockets out of the first round. BTW, Morey must know that the Rockets are way less efficient when TMac plays and the he costs them several possessions a game (which explains why we lose to scrub teams with him on the court).
     
  20. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member

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    Bobby Sura, David Wesley, Jon Barry, a McGrady who was close to his prime and played in 78 games, and Yao who played nearly a complete season.
     

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