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Podcast: Game 1 loss a wake-up call or death knell for Rockets?
northeastfan is offline Old 02-01-2009, 11:10 AM   #1
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I looked at the results (from ESPN.com) of the past 20 games. TSlack played in exactly half of them. Note that if anything, we may have had harder opponents when TSlack didn't play.

The numbers are presented below.

Let's explode some myths.

1. TMac makes his team better on offense (he's a great facilitator)
This is simply not true. We shot 47.6% without TSlack. With TSlack, that goes way down to 41.6% The reasons are obvious; he does not help his team get better shots. He does not move without the ball. He does not run on the fast break. He does not set screens. He wants to dominate the ball and shoot or make a "home run" assist which often becomes a turnover. That's not smart basketball and it shows.

2. TMac is a great scorer.
I beg to differ. 49/143 is 34%. That's terrible. That's worse that Airballston. That's the level of Chuck Hayes. Do you really want someone who is shooting that poorly to have the ball in his hands?

3. TMac is much better on D than whoever replaces him (say Wafer)
False again. The opponents shot 45.6% when we had the guys who "get lost on D" play for us. With the so called veteran McGrady, that number jumps to 48.6%. He simply does not play hard defense. He doesn't get back. He doesn't stop dribble penetration. He doesn't fight through screens. He's late on close outs. He simply doesn't play good defense. As often as Wafer has gotten lost on defense, he's still better than TSlack.

4. TMac is a difference maker
True, but the difference is in the wrong direction. Without TSlack, our point differential is a very healthy +6.1. With TSlack, our point differential goes to a -4.8. That's more than a 10 point swing! To careful observers of basketball, the reasons are obvious. His offense is poor and his defense is poor. The team's chemistry is poor with him on the court. Further, note that TSlack's +/- is negative in every game but Detroit. On average, teams score 5.5 more points per game when he's on the court than we do. Yep, he's a difference maker alright.

5. We can't win without TMac.
7-3 without him. 3-7 with him. It doesn't get anymore stark than that.

6. TMac helps the Rockets
Nope ... just look at the number.

Raw Data









DateOpponentPoints ForPoints AgainstWinTslack In?FG%Opp FG%Tslack FGMTslack FGATslack +/-
12/23/08Cleveland90990143.148.727-4
12/26/08New Orleans79880136.144.6211-11
12/27/08Utah1201151039.249


12/29/08Washington8789014046.2617-1
12/31/08Milwaukee85811141.145.1310-2
01/02/09Toronto73940134.148.229-25
01/03/09Atlanta1001030048.158.9


01/06/09Philadelphia961040142.556.2515-1
01/07/09Boston89851048.642.9


01/09/09Oklahoma City98961145.948.1820-4
01/10/09New York96761042.435.4


01/13/09Lakers100105005350.6


01/17/09Miami93861056.540


01/19/09Denver1151131051.154.5


01/21/09Utah108991046.143.5


01/23/09Indiana107102004339.3


01/25/09Detroit1081051152.756.461410
01/26/09New York981040138.947.4720-12
01/28/09Philadelphia93950141.145.7820-5
01/31/09Golden State110931047.642


Cumulative
97.2596.6101044.5647.1449143-5.5






















No Tslack









DateOpponentPoints ForPoints AgainstWinTslack In?FG%Opp FG%


12/27/08Utah1201151039.249


01/03/09Atlanta1001030048.158.9


01/07/09Boston89851048.642.9


01/10/09New York96761042.435.4


01/13/09Lakers100105005350.6


01/17/09Miami93861056.540


01/19/09Denver1151131051.154.5


01/21/09Utah108991046.143.5


01/23/09Indiana107102004339.3


01/31/09Golden State110931047.642


Cumulative
103.897.77
47.5645.61













With Tslack









DateOpponentPoints ForPoints AgainstWinTslack In?FG%Opp FG%Tslack FGMTslack FGATslack +/-
12/23/08Cleveland90990143.148.727-4
12/26/08New Orleans79880136.144.6211-11
12/29/08Washington8789014046.2617-1
12/31/08Milwaukee85811141.145.1310-2
01/02/09Toronto73940134.148.229-25
01/06/09Philadelphia961040142.556.2515-1
01/09/09Oklahoma City98961145.948.1820-4
01/25/09Detroit1081051152.756.461410
01/26/09New York981040138.947.4720-12
01/28/09Philadelphia93950141.145.7820-5
Cumulative
90.795.53
41.5548.6649143-5.5

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realtmacfans is offline Old 02-01-2009, 11:14 AM   #2
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Judge others just from 20 games? I think you forget the contribution he made for ROX
 
northeastfan is offline Old 02-01-2009, 11:16 AM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by realtmacfans
Judge others just from 20 games? I think you forget the contribution he made for ROX
The most recent past is a better predictor than the distant past ....

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DaDakota is online now Old 02-01-2009, 11:16 AM   #4
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You could remove a lot of that annoying air in your post, but it is a good analysis...interesting..

He is struggling for sure.

DD

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northeastfan is offline Old 02-01-2009, 11:17 AM   #5
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BTW, everyone, sorry about the big space in the post. I know this is a forgiving crowd!

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Persianfoo is offline Old 02-01-2009, 11:21 AM   #6
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Wow, will this ever end? It seems every other thread is about T-mac and how hes bad or bad for the team or something stupid like that.
 
rocketsmetalspd is offline Old 02-01-2009, 11:22 AM   #7
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Those numbers do not lie for this season. Don't know what Morey has planned but I am sure he will come up with a trade that will help the team win a championship this season. I don't want the team to look to 2010 besides all the hype leading up to this season was to win now.
 
northeastfan is offline Old 02-01-2009, 11:26 AM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Persianfoo
Wow, will this ever end? It seems every other thread is about T-mac and how hes bad or bad for the team or something stupid like that.
The truth hurts.

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LittleWilly is offline Old 02-01-2009, 11:26 AM   #9
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Please put some more blank space in your post - your conclusions are trully worth scrolling endlessly for.
 
northeastfan is offline Old 02-01-2009, 11:28 AM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LittleWilly
Please put some more blank space in your post - your conclusions are trully worth scrolling endlessly for.
Sorry, don't have the ability to edit.

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shortfuse3 is offline Old 02-01-2009, 11:31 AM   #11
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can you find a stat of how many fast break points we average with him in and with him out?
 
northeastfan is offline Old 02-01-2009, 11:33 AM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shortfuse3
can you find a stat of how many fast break points we average with him in and with him out?
I really wish I had access to more NBA numbers. I had to manually scrape the numbers from ESPN. If anyone knows of a good current database of the NBA, I'd love to have it!

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roksoer is online now Old 02-01-2009, 11:36 AM   #13
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You really spend a lot of your time hating tmac, don't you

at least for once you have some solid arguments i'll give you that.

I agree fully that he did struggle before his "conditioning" a lot, at that time I wanted the coaches to give him less minutes or make him sit out some games too. So I completely agree with you, but you did say: "
The most recent past is a better predictor than the distant past ...." and the most recent past were the three games he played coming off of his conditioning and in those three games he certainly did not hurt the team in any way and he's only shown signs of improvement lately, anyone who watched the games with an impartial mindset would agree.
 
northeastfan is offline Old 02-01-2009, 11:39 AM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by roksoer
You really spend a lot of your time hating tmac, don't you

at least for once you have some solid arguments i'll give you that.

I agree fully that he did struggle before his "conditioning" a lot, at that time I wanted the coaches to give him less minutes or make him sit out some games too. So I completely agree with you, but you did say: "
The most recent past is a better predictor than the distant past ...." and the most recent past were the three games he played coming off of his conditioning and in those three games he certainly did not hurt the team in any way and he's only shown signs of improvement lately, anyone who watched the games with an impartial mindset would agree.
I'd love for TMac to return playing at a high level ... unfortunately, that simply hasn't been the case. He has hurt the Rockets by costing them games ... he'll almost certainly continue to do so. He should sit until healthy (both mentally and physically). If he doesn't sit, we'll be a mediocre team.

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King901 is offline Old 02-01-2009, 11:39 AM   #15
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Just another Tmac hater. Tmac's pressence on the court is better than anyone who could replace him. Like he said in the commercial, some of the things you do don't appear on the stat sheet. Look into those words carefully and maybe you will understand them.
 
northeastfan is offline Old 02-01-2009, 11:42 AM   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by King901
Just another Tmac hater. Tmac's pressence on the court is better than anyone who could replace him. Like he said in the commercial, some of the things you do don't appear on the stat sheet. Look into those words carefully and maybe you will understand them.
7-3 without him. 3-7 with him. Those are stats, I agree. But those are the only stats that matter for the playoffs.

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joesr is offline Old 02-01-2009, 11:43 AM   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LittleWilly
Please put some more blank space in your post - your conclusions are trully worth scrolling endlessly for.
and your post was any more the better?

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Oski2005 is offline Old 02-01-2009, 11:43 AM   #18
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So your analysis is that T-Mac with his gimpy knee has sucked THIS YEAR? Yeah, we certainly needed help figuring that out


Why don't you analyze T-Mac's entire Rocket career? That would actually be interesting, to see if he's hurt the team more than he's helped since he's been here.

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northeastfan is offline Old 02-01-2009, 11:45 AM   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Oski2005
So your analysis is that T-Mac with his gimpy knee has sucked THIS YEAR? Yeah, we certainly needed help figuring that out


Why don't you analyze T-Mac's entire Rocket career? That would actually be interesting, to see if he's hurt the team more than he's helped since he's been here.
I'm more concerned about what will happen in the next game that what has happened in the past number of years. The best predictor of the next few games is the recent past.

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Patience is offline Old 02-01-2009, 11:45 AM   #20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by northeastfan
The most recent past is a better predictor than the distant past ....
By distant past, do you mean last season? Jeez, you guys have short memories. I could probably find a 20 game sample to "prove" that Rafer Alston is an all-star.
 

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