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Gallup: Obama's support similar to Kerry's in 2004

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by basso, May 8, 2008.

  1. basso

    basso Member
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    http://www.gallup.com/poll/107110/Obamas-Support-Similar-Kerrys-2004.aspx

    [rquoter]PRINCETON, NJ -- Barack Obama's current level of support among white voters in a head-to-head matchup against John McCain is no worse than John Kerry's margin of support among whites against George W. Bush in the 2004 presidential election.

    [​IMG]

    Much of the talk following Tuesday's Indiana and North Carolina primaries has focused on just how electable Obama -- now the highly probable nominee -- will be in the general election. The Clinton campaign has argued that Obama's weaknesses among white voters and blue-collar voters will hurt him against McCain in the fall.

    But it appears that the way Obama stacks up against McCain at this point is similar to the way in which Kerry performed against Bush in 2004 within several key racial, educational, religious, and gender subgroups. That is, the basic underlying structure of the general-election campaign this year does not appear to be markedly different from that of the 2004 election. This conclusion is based on an analysis of exit-poll data from 2004 compared to the Obama-McCain matchup in 4,000 Gallup Poll Daily tracking interviews conducted during the first five days of May.[/rquoter]
     
  2. SamFisher

    SamFisher Member

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    right....right....right....

    I hope to god this is what repub-os think. SInce basso is a well-known repub affiliate, BBS division, I am assuming this is the party line. In which case, I strongly encourage repub-o's to repeat their 2004 campaign strategy built on a coaltion of God, Guns & Gays. Run right, run HARD right. The straight talk express will bend, it already has and will again. BRING BACK THE 04 STRATEGY. MENTION IRAQ A LOT. AND GAYS PLEASE!
     
  3. Major

    Major Member

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    If his numbers today, after a grueling primary campaign where Hillary supporters are still not on board yet and where McCain has been free to build himself up, are similar to Kerry's on election, that's a great sign for Obama - especially given Obama's GOTV abilities.
     
  4. rimrocker

    rimrocker Member

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    Obama's just started to fight...

     
  5. basso

    basso Member
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    that's going to have incredible resonance for the ten people who still watch CNN, or believe anything they see therein.
     
  6. rimrocker

    rimrocker Member

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    Here are some more stats:

    Those numbers are for Hispanics in FL and this is the first time in the history of modern polling that FL Hispanics registered as Dems outnumber those registered as Repubs.
     
  7. rimrocker

    rimrocker Member

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    Well, McCain's people reacted, which will make it a low-level national story for a few days... and every time it gets repeated, that message sinks in... but then, you guys are familiar with that dynamic, right?
     
  8. halfbreed

    halfbreed Member

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    How many of those would vote for Obama over McCain? That's the real question.

    I think it's still way too early to tell who does and who doesn't have an advantage anywhere. Too much will happen once Obama (most likely) or Clinton gets the nomination.
     
  9. rimrocker

    rimrocker Member

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    I'm guessing a very high percentage of Dems will vote for Obama.

    The Indies are another question.
     
  10. bucket

    bucket Member

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    Yeah, I prefer to skip the news media and just get my info straight from the campaigns.
     
  11. Nolen

    Nolen Member

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    Agreed. From here on, it's all better for Obama and much harder for McCain. The dem base will get behind him and he does extremely well with independents.

    The entire republican brand is crap. Not just Bush, the brand. Ask Newt. They have no answers for the most pressing issues on voter's minds: the economy, the war, healthcare.

    Obama's fundraising will continue to DWARF McCain's.
     
  12. A_3PO

    A_3PO Member

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    I agree with you about the GOP brand. At the same time, I believe the election (for president) will be close unless McCain somehow crumbles. The Republicans will come up with at least one or two wedge issues to hang their campaign on, whether McCain likes it or not. It's a simple fact that Republicans are much better at presidential (election) politics than Dems. If Obama wins, it won't be by a comfortable margin.
     
  13. rhadamanthus

    rhadamanthus Member

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    That article reeks of hypocrisy. bin Laden endorsed Bush.
     
  14. weslinder

    weslinder Member

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    Here's a sign of what a bad Presidential candidate we have as Republicans. I'm a Precinct Chairman, and I got instructions to begin canvassing this weekend for November. I pulled this text straight from the email (suggested script).

     
  15. Nolen

    Nolen Member

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    Wow. :eek:
     
  16. glynch

    glynch Member

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    Gallup: Obama's support similar to Kerry's in 2004

    The big difference is that voters dont' want a third Bush term due to the complete cluster**** in Iraq which McCain is eager to continue indefinitely.

    As Pat Buchanan said: "McCain makes George Bush look like Mahatma Ghandi". ;)
     
  17. Refman

    Refman Member

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    I wouldn't bank on that. I believe that McCain's strategy in the general will be to run toward the middle. If it isn't the strategy, then he won't win.

    I believe that McCain will pick a running mate that is a moderate. Whoever his VP pick is will give a glimpse into what the strategy will be.
     
  18. mc mark

    mc mark Member

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    If he runs toward the middle, the base will stay home.
     
  19. A_3PO

    A_3PO Member

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    This is McCain's dilemma. IMO, the strategy will be for surrogates to attack and try to defame Obama while he stays above the fray. McCain has a very tight rope to walk. I will vote for the "Straight Talk Express" but if he panders to the right-wing "base", he can kiss my vote goodbye.
     
  20. Invisible Fan

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    Acting befuddled about his surrogate's attacks or outright refusing to address the reasons behind Obama's responses will get old and tiring.
     

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