Just got back from Vegas...thought I'd pass these #'s along. I got the Astros at 74.5 wins (over for -130), the Texans at 7.5 wins (over for even money!), and just for fun I got the Texans to make the playoffs at +210. I made my big money bet on the Texans over 7.5 wins...I figure if they stay healthy, they'll improve on last year. Can't believe it's so low! Am I just being a homer?
Astros Under Texans Over I wouldn't make the bet against the Astros because I would never cheer against them, but I don't like their team this season.
The Astros bet is easy, easy money on the over. Take it and run. I like the Texans, but with 16 games, the NFL is far too random. One untimely injury or a couple of flukish losses and the impact is dramatic. Plus, the Texans are almost capped at around 10 wins in the near future even in the best case scenario based on how good the rest of their division is. I think they'll win at last eight games personally, but I don't think they're as safe a bet as the Astros.
I think the Astros line is about fair. I'd bet the over, and I don't think I'm being a homer, but it's not a no-brainer. The Texans line is at least one low. I'd bet the over on 8.5. I think over 7.5 is as close to a sure-fire thing as you can get in sports.
Really??? I'm king of optmistic Astros fans...but I come back to the fundamentals and i'm freaked out. I've seen the Astros make a WS with a weak hitting team and killer pitching...I've seen the Rangers mash the ball like crazy, and get to the playoffs a grand total of 3 times in roughly 50 years because they have no rotation to speak of. I'm nervous about this season...reminds me too much of 2000. Having said all that....baseball is my favorite sport and the Astros are my favorite franchise. Win or lose, I love a trip to the ballpark...and I'm really looking forward to taking my boys out to some games. My 3 year old asks me every day if we're going to see the Astros! Can't...freaking...wait!
I don't know that the Astros bet is easy money, though I would certainly take the over. What is Tejada going to give you? What is Bourne going to give you? What is Towles going to give you? Those are three big question marks in the offense. Now, with all that said I expect the offense to be significantly better, but the pitching might just be woefully bad. The closer is erratic with gaudy save numbers but there are other statistical red flags. The rest of the bullpen is a patchwork of no names and has beens. That's actually not a bad way to build a bullpen. Sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't. Problem is that the Astros don't have a lot of minor league talent to come up if the big league guys fail to get outs. The rotation is a mess. Roy is good, but nobody else in that rotation is a lock for even an ERA+ of 100, let alone better than that. The innings are going to be another problem which could further exacerbate the bullpen problem. So yes, 75 wins seems like number that should be attainable for an Astros club featuring names like Berkman, Lee, Pence, Tejada, etc., but I don't think it's anything close to easy money.
I think each of the last two years, we had a similar post about how the over was easy money, and both times, the Astros were under. The reality is that the Astros have probably one of the best offenses in the NL, and one of the worst pitching staffs. What that will translate to is seriously up in the air.
The Astros definitely hit the over 2 years ago...I remember it was 81, cause I was thinking they just had to beat .500 to get it--easy money! Of course it took that amazing run that *almost* got them into the playoffs to get to 82 wins...but they made it
i took astros over. roy oswalt over 15.5 wins... no way he doesnt go over considering the new lineup and all the blown games the bullpen gave him last season. also took berkman over 103 RBI oh and i took bourn over 30.5 steals... didnt bet much on it.
From here: http://www.sportsbettingstats.com/MLB/articles/2006-mlb-win-bets.asp It was 83.5. I guess it may have varied a little in there. But here (at least I think it was this board), the consensus was that it was an easy money bet. We made the WS the year before, had the entire team intact, and it was silly that we might be around 83 wins, etc, etc.
I don't think Tejada is much of a question. The Astros last season had a flukish off year from Berkman, a season-ending injury to Everett, lost Pence to a broken wrist, lost Scott about 50 times (it seemed like) to various ailments, and played Biggio much more than he would have played in normal circumstances based on the 3,000. With a little better luck, they're better than a 73-win team. Starting pitching has remained the same -- possibly a slight upgrade, pending Backe and Chacon's performances. The bullpen, however, should be an improvement. Offensively, when you factor in Berkman's likely return to form, you'll have clearly better production at catcher, first base, second base, shortstop and right field than what the Astros had a season ago. Center field will be a drop, certainly, but that's one position. Between those upgrades and provided there aren't any signficant injuries to key parts, I would be thoroughly shocked if the Astros couldn't win two more games than they did a season ago.
Texans over is a lock imo Astros won 73 games last year, I think they should be able to win a few more but I wouldn't touch it with that pitching staff but if I had to bet I say over because the NL central is weak
That's foolish. Do you know how many teams lost 100 games last year? Zero. How many lost 100 the year before? 2, the Devil Rays (101) and the Royals (100). Only one NL team has lost 100 games in the last 5 seasons. Do you really think the Astros are now the worst team in baseball?
