[Survey USA] Obama/Clinton vs. McCain by states http://surveyusa.com/ This was just released... and it's one of the best polling jobs I've ever seen. They spoke with 600 voters in each state -- 30,000 total -- and have a breakdown of a general election race. While the results are similar (Obama wins with 280 EV, Clinton wins with 276 EV), it's different on a state-by-state basis. Here are the notables: Alaska: McCain by 22 vs. Clinton, McCain by 5 vs. Obama (17 pt difference) Arkansas: Clinton by 11 vs. McCain, McCain by 20 vs. Obama (31 pt difference) Colorado: Obama by 9 vs. McCain, McCain by 6 vs. Clinton (15 pt difference) Florida: Clinton by 9 over McCain, McCain by 2 over Obama (11 pt difference) Hawaii: Obama by 30 over McCain, Clinton by 4 over McCain (26 pt difference) Iowa: Obama by 9 over McCain, McCain by 5 over Clinton (14 pt difference) Kentucky: McCain by 21 over Obama, McCain by 9 over Clinton (12 pt difference) Mississippi: McCain by 9 over Clinton, McCain by 13 over Obama (is this a tell for upset next week?) Nebraska: McCain by 3 over Obama, McCain by 27 over Clinton (24 pt difference) North Carolina: McCain by 8 over Clinton, McCain by 2 over Obama (6 pt difference) Oklahoma: McCain by 8 over Clinton, McCain by 23 over Obama (15 pt difference) Oregon: McCain by 5 over Clinton, Obama by 8 over McCain (13 pt difference) Pennsylvania: Clinton by 1 over McCain, McCain by 5 over Obama (6 pt difference) Tennessee: Clinton-McCain tied, McCain by 16 over Obama (16 pt difference) Texas: McCain by 7 over Clinton, McCain by 1 over Obama (WOW!) Virginia: Obama-McCain tied, McCain by 10 over Clinton (10 pt difference) Washington: Obama by 14 over McCain, McCain by 2 over Clinton (16 pt difference) West Virginia: Clinton by 5 over McCain, McCain by 18 over Obama (23 pt difference) Wyoming: McCain by 33 over Clinton, McCain by 19 over Obama (is this a tell for Saturday?) These are just the ones that jump off the page... there are other discrepancies as well. Very interesting stuff. Some of these spreads are huge depending on who the nominee is...
Here are how the maps would look. Clinton vs. McCain: (note that TN is tied, not sure why it's red) Obama vs. McCain
Wow that Texas survey is an eye opener.. But if you had over 4 million people voting for the democratic party then maybe it's true.
Oops, I read that wrong. Too many numbers, it actually had McCain up by 1. But the idea of Texas even being contested is amazing.
Is that a misprint in Ohio for Obama? That conflicts with every other credible poll I've seen there. McCain beats him easy in Ohio.
Respectfully, Yellow Dog Democrats are about as relevant to the current situation as the Whigs. The current state of Texas is a lock for the current Republican party.
I wouldn't say no way. But it's likely going Republican. I would say no way Texas goes Dem though. I don't know who these people are polling. Must be the same BS polls that conveniently have Dem voters outnumbering GOP voters by 10-15%.
That might be the best for now. But you can't poll the same number of people in different states. The margin of error in populous states will be pretty big.
Every other poll was taken before Obama and Clinton spent two weeks campaigning there. I think the most surprising thing to me is Michigan. It makes me wonder what a re-vote would be like there. Also, Penn and NJ both switching is surprising, though the campaign hasn't reached Penn yet. Its interesting to see new states in play (West Virginia, North Dakota, etc) depending on the candidate. It's amazing, but Clinton won Montana, Georgia, and Kentucky, which we now consider ultra-red, in 1992. There are a lot more states in play than we tend to think while focusing on FL/OH/MO/etc. On a separate note, I am consistently impressed by these SurveyUSA guys. Their state polls are fantastic and provide all sorts of fun breakdowns, and this poll is ridiculously extensive with 30,000 people in it. Good find!
ding ding ding. That's why I laugh at all the predictions of doom for the party because the race will go on for a couple more months. While there will be some negativity, by and large, the message promotion through the media will be enormous while McCain gets very little. Unless something crazy goes down at the convention, I think all of this will be a net positive for the nominee.
Demographics change. Texas is going down the same path as California, which used to be solidly red. Why do you think there was so much effort expended on the redistricting? No later than 2016, TX will be Dem unless the Repubs reinvent themselves.
Several of those are real "yeah right" results. McCain would win Nebraska by more than 3 over Obama, and more than 1 in Texas. But polls taken before the conventions are pretty meaningless anyway. .
I was surprised at Florida. Florida is a much more conservative state than most, yet they would vote Hillary over McCain but McCain over Obama. Hillary is more liberal than Obama, I think. I figured they would give Obama a better chance than Hillary.
