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Reason for Optimism: a serious comparison of Yao and Ilgauskas

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by topfive, Feb 29, 2008.

  1. topfive

    topfive CF OG

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    With all the panicking (including my own) this week after Yao's injury was announced, I thought maybe it was time to take a sober, rational, non-emotional look at what this injury could mean to the remainder of Yao's career -- as well as to the Rockets' future for the next decade.

    Remembering the repeated foot trouble that Cavs center Zydrunas Ilgauskas endured during the early part of his career, I did some poking around to find out exactly what those injuries were. I was not too surprised to find that like Yao, Z also had stress fractures of the navicular bone in his foot -- or his feet, to be precise, since he had the same issue with both of them. In fact, he sat out two entire seasons for each foot. Even more alarming: In a span of five years, Ilgauskas fractured the navicular bone in each foot TWICE.

    For the record, Yao (7'6" and 310 lbs.) is definitely bigger than Z (7'3" and 260 lbs.), but he's in the same ballpark their games and their injuries are pretty similar, so he's a good point of comparison.


    Here's a season-by-season look at Z's career:


    1994-95 -- At age 19, played 36 games of pro ball in Lithuania.

    1995-96 -- Did not play at all while rehabbing from a broken right foot.

    1996-97 -- Missed his second consecutive entire season again after re-breaking the same bone in his right foot during summer ball and having surgery to repair it.

    1997-98 -- Joined the Cavs and played in every game, starting 81 of them and averaging 13.9/8.8. Made the All-Rookie First Team and was the rookie all-star game's MVP.

    1998-99 -- Played in only the first 5 games, averaging 15.2/8.8 before being put on the injured list with a sore left foot. It was diagnosed as a fractured navicular bone in February.

    1999-00 -- Missed the entire preseason and season due to the injured left foot. He had corrective surgery in January of 2000.

    2000-01 -- Started the Cavs' first 24 games, then again had pain in his left foot and was placed on the Injured List in December with yet another fracture of the navicular bone in that foot. Had surgery again in February of 2001 and missed the rest of the season.

    2001-02 -- Missed the first 17 games while still rehabbing from the surgery on his left foot.


    At this point it sounds mighty damned depressing, doesn't it? Since his sterling rookie year, Ilgauskas had missed had missed 85% (155 of 181) of the team's regular-season games over a 2+ year span. The Cavs -- from the president and GM to the doctors to the players to the fans -- wondered if Z would ever play meaningful minutes again in his career.

    Now for the happy ending and the reason for optimism in regards to Yao: Amazingly, Ilgauskas eventually recovered from those injuries and had his best years by far afterward.


    2001-02 (continued) -- Z started playing again in early December and only missed three games from that point on -- two with back spasms and one DNP-CD (reason unknown).

    2002-present -- Over the past nearly SIX years, Ilgauskas has played in (and started) over 97% of the Cavs games -- 491 out of 505 games, counting regular season and playoffs. Even more encouraging: Of the 14 games he missed, I couldn't find any instances of it being attributed to foot problems; 1 game with a sprained knee, 3 with a sprained ankle, 4 with a dislocated finger, 2 due to league suspensions, and 4 for which I couldn't track down the cause.

    Z.'s problems started over a decade ago -- an eternity when it comes to sports medicine research. Things have improved substantially during that span. Microfracture surgery, for example, used to be a career killer (McDyess), but now it's merely a lengthy rehab and you resume your career where you left off (Amare).


    So while this season will be a struggle for the Rockets, there's no reason to believe this will necessarily cast a dark cloud on the future of Yao and the team. There's no way to know for sure, of course, but it definitely makes me feel better to know that a similar-sized player with a similar type of game has resumed a stellar career after overcoming repeated instances of a similar injury that could very well have derailed it.

    I would hope that Rockets strongly consider taking some or all of the following steps:

    * Let Yao "bulk down" a bit. At this point, he knows how to play the inside game well enough that losing 10-20 pounds wouldn't automatically make him a pushover in the paint like he was early in his career. Any loss of power should be offset by a similar improvement in his quickness. And more importantly, carrying less weight means less stress on the bones of his feet.

    * Reduce Yao's minutes, starting as soon as he returns. Ilgauskas has averaged around 30 mpg for most of his career -- and only slightly higher in playoff games -- mostly because he's prone to picking up fouls and has to come out. Yao, on the other hand, has seen his minutes go up and up, from 29 in his rookie year to more than 37 this year. And this decision has to come from the GM and coach, because Yao is not the type of player to ever ask for time off. Instead, it must be forced on him.

    * Find out what kind of special exercises and treatment Ilgauskas has been doing in the last six years. Might not help, but it certainly couldn't hurt.


    The bottom line: It would seem that with proper treatment and some smart changes on the part of the team, there's a good chance Yao can resume his career and not have stress fractures in his feet be a recurring theme. Let's all hope that's what happens.
     
  2. tigermission1

    tigermission1 Contributing Member

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    Well, if Yao's injury pattern is anything near what Z's were, then the Rockets are guaranteed to never, ever come anywhere close to having a serious shot at a championship, even with McGrady around.

    If that's the case, then it's definitely time to unload him/McGrady and all other big contracts and rebuild now.

    If you meant that there are things we can learn from Z's injury history in dealing with Yao, then I guess so but I am afraid Yao is bigger/heavier so I am not sure how comparable they are.
     
  3. tsunami

    tsunami Member

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    I am sure you haven't read the complete post.
     
  4. JeopardE

    JeopardE Contributing Member

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    Looks like the point completely went over your head there, Debbie Downer. The reason for optimism is that post-surgery, Z has been pretty rock-solid and has never missed a game due to foot problems. And we know that sports medicine has advanced considerably over the past decade, so we have every reason to expect even better results for Yao.
     
  5. Carl Herrera

    Carl Herrera Contributing Member

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    I think all the bone screws they put into Z's foot actually are doing their job and prevenign further bone injuries.

    Therefore, I am glad that Yao is deciding to screw himself this year. He will come back more durable, I hope.
     
  6. dookiester

    dookiester Member

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    again, the key to minimizing stress on yao's body isn't going to have anything to do with his minutes during the nba season. 5 or 6 minutes a game is negligible compared to the wear and tear he probably puts his body through in training. it is in training that he needs to focus on ways to alleviate pressure on his knees and feet. conditioning in a pool instead of running a track or similar alternatives will do a lot more good than notching down his minutes on a game to game basis.
     
  7. Old Man Rock

    Old Man Rock Contributing Member

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    Aren't you a little old for screw jokes.
     
  8. Easy

    Easy Boban Only Fan
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    Thanks, topfive. It's encouraging. And it's refreshing to see someone actually do some fact finding to comment on Yao's situation.
     
  9. JeopardE

    JeopardE Contributing Member

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    Justify this statement, please. It makes no sense.
     
  10. kwng

    kwng Member

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    Bulking down seems to be a good and will help significantly in reducing
    the stress. But then it would be good get experts to analyse how Yao moves, run and jump to further find way to reduce stress on his feet.
     
  11. yaofan07

    yaofan07 Member

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    Good post
    I do feel better after having read that. Hopefully Yao can come back and be equally rock solid as far as playing the season out goes

    On a side note... wow! Poor Ilgauskas, missing 85% of games for that long a span?

    Also, is there any preventative measures that can be taken so that Yao doesn't injure his other foot? I know they wouldn't normally ever operate on a healthy foot, but I duno if putting in screws permanently gets rid of the issue would they?
     
  12. ExtremeHolly

    ExtremeHolly Rookie

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    Damn your dumb. Who the hell would rebuild if their team is on a 14 game win streak. Kill yourself please - Malcolm X would be ashamed of you.


    You act like Houston window of opportunity is similar to Dallas - 1 year or less.
     
  13. oneonepyopyo

    oneonepyopyo Member

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    With our current roster and rotation, I am seeing a pattern or a trend of winning a Championship. Part of it, we need Big Yao so badly......
     
  14. tigermission1

    tigermission1 Contributing Member

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    I would say the window of opportunity is the next two seasons (the duration of McGrady's contract, basically). Hopefully, both guys are healthy.

    We will see...
     
  15. A00man

    A00man Member

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    Great post man! It definitely made me feel better about Yao's future. I think our team will stay in tact for next season. Management sees this team's potential, and they'll get their shot next season IF we can stay healthy, and this post gives me hope that they in fact will stay healthy next season!
     
  16. blender

    blender Member

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    Below is from pryuen's thread of Yao's recent interview with Titan Sports. He talks about his upcoming surgery and makes a comparison with Ilgauskas' situation.

     
  17. jlwee

    jlwee Member

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    A lot of you have been underestimate the 2-3 months rest for a professional athlete especially basketball player.

    You may compare Big Z's size, injuries with Yao but Big Z doesnt work as hard as Yao or doesnt has the same workload as Yao every summers. He gets a lot rest to prevent another injury!

    I dont want to blame Yao's injuries solely on his CNT commitments but training hard 12 months consecutive for the past 6-7 years will stress one physically and mentally which will cause one to get injuries easier.

    God bless Yao to have a successfully surgery but after the surgery he still continue to be a workaholic like he is now, the chances of him getting injuries are much more higher others.

    Well then again you cant completely blame Yao to overwork. Shaq get injuries so often because he is lazy! So is the matter of getting in between!
     
  18. leebigez

    leebigez Contributing Member

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    I'm just going to ask a question becuz I actually think its a great post. If u thought yao career would mirror big z,when would u trade him? knowing what u know now and a team offered the rox kaman and 2 lotto picks, what would u do?

    I understand the long ok career big z has had, but the rox can't win a title with big z type of production.
     
  19. Yao#1

    Yao#1 Member

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    He is not saying that Yao will have the same kind of career as Z, only that he can recover and not have additional foot problems like Z did after his surgery.

    For example, Tony Allen tore his ACL and has returned pretty close to the player he was. If Kobe tears his ACL, that doesnt mean he will only return to the level Tony Allen is at.
     
  20. leebigez

    leebigez Contributing Member

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    What I'm saying is that every injury takes atheleticism from a player. If grant hill would have sat out of that playoff game instead of playing on a broken ankle trying to tough it out, we would be talking hof. The back injury has taken a lot of explosion from tracy. If and when yao comes back and he is even slower than he is now, then what? Better yet, what is he worth?

    Next yr I hope yao plays at least as he did this yr, but if he declines or misses 28 games again, then the rox should trade him.
     

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