Random Blog: What No One Is Telling You About Our Talks With Iran

[basso]

http://patdollard.com/2007/05/30/wha...lks-with-iran/

whether one buys the premise or not, it's an interesting post.

quote:

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Watching the pundits discuss our historic meeting with Iran, you would have mostly heard despair at the notion that we have no leverage in these talks, and so therefor why would Iran give on anything? Why would they stop waging war against us in iraq if they have nothing to fear? To all the experts in the media, the whole thing seemed like some grand puzzlement. Was it just an attempt to appease the administration’s domestic critics who have been chiding it for not engaging in diplomacy ( a vaguery if there ever was one ) with the world’s top terrorist? No one you heard from could really quite grasp what was going on.

For some reason, no one told you that just 5 days before Monday’s talks, an entire floating army, with nearly 20,000 men, comprising the world’s largest naval strike force, led by the USS Nimitz and the USS Stennis, and also comprising the largest U.S. Naval armada in the Persian Gulf since 2003, came floating up unnanounced through the Straight of Hormuz, and rested right on Iran’s back doorstep, guns pointed at them. The demonstration of leverage was clear. And it also came on the exact date of the expiration of the 60 day grace period the U.N. had granted Iran.

And it came just a few weeks after Vice President Dick Cheney had swept through the region and delivered a very clear and pointed message to the Saudi King Abdullah and others: George Bush has unequivocally decided to attack Iran’s nuclear, military and economic infrastructure if they do not abandon their drive for military nuclear capability. Plain and simple. Iran heard the message as well, and although a lack of leverage may seem clear to America’s retired military tv talking heads, it is not so clear to the government in Tehran.

The message to both Iran and Syria is that if the talks in Baghdad fail, the military option is ready to go.

The administration is almost freakishly confident, in marked contrast to media reports like the one featuring Newt Gingrich’s attack on the President below. The U.S. is in the midst of another dipolomatic surge through the region to bolster allies for the final showdown with Iran. Moqtada Al Sadr has sent signals he may be ready to break with Iran. And, frankly, the military turnaround in Al Anbar province is of greater strategic significance than the increase in U.S. casualties this month. In addition, the surge is still not entirely deployed, and whole key neighborhoods of Baghdad have yet to be entered. While John McCain was being mocked for having to wear a flak jacket in a Baghdad market, the bigger story was that his son, a Marine newly deployed to the Al Anbar province, and a frontline grunt at that, was more likely than not to never see a shot fired in an area that until just weeks ago was called “the most dangerous place on earth”.

Oh, and preparations are under way for the construction of new U.S. airbases in Kurdistan, so we are not, under any circumstances, giving up a firmbase posture throughout Iraq.

And special props to VP Cheney who had nearly been ordered by his doctors to not even make the first trip. A compromise was had and he flew with a physician. He is preparing for a trip to Iran’s various northern neighbors like Uzbekistan and Khazekstan to shore up our position for offensives from the north.

We want to have them entirely surrounded.

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[Saint Louis]

I'm surprised that the missiles and bombs haven't already started falling on Natanz. Where did Bush get all this patience from all of a sudden?

[DonkeyMagic]

Originally Posted by Saint Louis I'm surprised that the missiles and bombs haven't already started falling on Natanz. Where did Bush get all this patience from all of a sudden?

well he did have to wait, what like 8 months, to go to iraq

[Franchise2001]

As much as I don't enjoy the Iranians having nuclear capabilities... this is the Bush legacy. Do what we say, or get attacked.

[Ottomaton]

When the Iranians came up with their spy network announcement right before the talks I thought, 'Gosh what a bunch of clumsy thugs. Who would time something like that right before a meeting where you hope for cooperation from the other side.'

Then the administration does this and makes the Iranians look positively beatific and innocent by comparison. Nice job, administration.

Admiral Matthew Perry is dead and has been for quite a while. Gunboat diplomacy went out of style with hoop skirts and bonnets. I’m half expecting to discover that they recently attached a newly commissioned USS Maine to one of the carrier task forces.

[Sishir Chang]

The only fault I have with current Admin. talking to Iran is that they didn't talk to them sooner. I don't fault them for bringing in more military force to make the point that it is in Iran's interest to talk either. I think an invasion of Iran is out of the question and bombing not going to do much but we have to keep the option open.

The thing that bother me about the piece was the overly optimistic spin it had about what is going on in Iraq.

The administration is almost freakishly confident, in marked contrast to media reports like the one featuring Newt Gingrich’s attack on the President below. The U.S. is in the midst of another dipolomatic surge through the region to bolster allies for the final showdown with Iran. Moqtada Al Sadr has sent signals he may be ready to break with Iran. And, frankly, the military turnaround in Al Anbar province is of greater strategic significance than the increase in U.S. casualties this month. In addition, the surge is still not entirely deployed, and whole key neighborhoods of Baghdad have yet to be entered. While John McCain was being mocked for having to wear a flak jacket in a Baghdad market, the bigger story was that his son, a Marine newly deployed to the Al Anbar province, and a frontline grunt at that, was more likely than not to never see a shot fired in an area that until just weeks ago was called “the most dangerous place on earth”.

Orly?

We are talking about the Anbar province where a suicide bomb went off the other day in supposedly pacified Fallujah or where US soldiers are still dying to roadside bombs and sniper attacks. As far for Moqtada Al Sadr breaking with Iran we are talking about the same Moqtada Al Sadr who last week came out of hiding to deliver a fiery anti-American sermon. Maybe Al Sadr is dissatisfied with the Iranians, that doesn't mean he is going to joint with the US.

This part of the article strikes me as overly optimistic spin that we've been hearing for the past 5 years, Mission Accomplished, we're turning the corner, and etc...

[Deckard]

Originally Posted by Ottomaton When the Iranians came up with their spy network announcement right before the talks I thought, 'Gosh what a bunch of clumsy thugs. Who would time something like that right before a meeting where you hope for cooperation from the other side.' Then the administration does this and makes the Iranians look positively beatific and innocent by comparison. Nice job, administration. Admiral Matthew Perry is dead and has been for quite a while. Gunboat diplomacy went out of style with hoop skirts and bonnets. I’m half expecting to discover that they recently attached a newly commissioned USS Maine to one of the carrier task forces.

I think the style today would be more along the lines of the Maddox, Ottomaton.



D&D. Replicant Gunboats.

[Rocket River]

Mean while . .Osama Bin Ladin is still Free.

So . . does this mean we are preparing for War with Iran?
If so . . another to leave to the *next* President

Rocket River

[SamFisher]

This thread reminds me of the first time basso declared victory over Iran on behalf of the Bush administration's military "intimidation" back in 2004, which of course, resulted in Iran acting even more brazen and defiant than ever in the next few years. Quaint.