Who do ya'll think will slip in this year's draft?

[ham]

Last year, it was Marcus Williams who fell much farther than was expected.

I am curious: does anyone see a common trait among players who last longer in the draft than predicted? If so, who do you think is most likely to slip in this year's draft?

Please don't just say who you personally think is overrated, at least not without backing it up with some obversations.


I think that maybe a player like Yi Jianlian will fall. A lot of potential, but most of his games have been in a Chinese or international setting, so there are a lot of question marks. I think a player like him, with so much ability still untapped, may have a poor showing in predraft workouts and scrimmages, which might scare off GM's who want more of a sure thing with their high draft picks.

[giddyup]

I can imagine Mike Conley, Jr. slipping. Afterall, he's been riding Oden's coattails his ENTIRE career. How good is he really? Someone today had him going third to Atlanta...

[Ziggy]

Marcus Williams slipped last year I agree, but Gay was the biggest surprise. This year I would say Noah and Law.

[Astockmarketgod]

Noah...

[jpsamhyz]

Originally Posted by Astockmarketgod Noah...

Agree. And I believe Yi Jianlian is on the rise right now. Outside Durant, Yi is the most skillful offensive bigman in the draft, especially after Hibbert's withdrawl. I can imagine Memphis and Boston going hard at him after losing out on the lottery. The fans have seen all the American prospects play a lot in March Madness, but are unfamiliar with Yi. The team that drafts him can sell the "Chinese KG" idea to boost season ticket sales as well as developing the Chinese market. Both Boston and Memphis' season ticket sales took a huge hit on lottery night. They desperately need something to re-excite the owner and the fans. Yi is probably the best consolation at least in the short term, both basketball and marketing-wise.

[htownbball]

marcus williams will slip again this year...the one from AZ. i could honestly see him going into the 2nd round with the depth of SG/SF's in the draft this year.

i could see conley going to atlanta at 3 as well. he's the consensus top PG available in a weak crop of PG's. he has the best floor leadership and the best passing skills out of the PG's rated to go in the 1st (Law and Crittenton). they also have a pick at 11, so they could go for Brandan Wright at 3 and then go for Law or Crittenton at 11. im really not sold on Wright's skillset, so i would just lock up Conley at 3 and take BPA at 11, which would still be a very good player.

i dont think Yi Jianlain falls out of the top 7. why? because both memphis and boston lost out at the top 2 picks, and they need someone to market to their fans. Yi will bring in the most new fans out of anybody left on board.

[saleem]

[QUOTE=htownbball]marcus williams will slip again this year...the one from AZ. i could honestly see him going into the 2nd round with the depth of SG/SF's in the draft this year.

I assume you feel that he won't be a good fit at the 26th pick. I'm not arguing with you if feel that way. Just want to make sure.

[giddyup]

Originally Posted by htownbball i could see conley going to atlanta at 3 as well. he's the consensus top PG available in a weak crop of PG's.

The guy I i saw talking about Conley (I forget who it was) had him rated equally to both Chris Paul and Deron Williams. That surprised me. I keep thinking of Henry Bibby who was a nice player but enjoyed a collegiate career with Kareem and was less productive as a pro.

[Jonhty]

Originally Posted by jpsamhyz Agree. And I believe Yi Jianlian is on the rise right now. Outside Durant, Yi is the most skillful offensive bigman in the draft, especially after Hibbert's withdrawl. I can imagine Memphis and Boston going hard at him after losing out on the lottery. The fans have seen all the American prospects play a lot in March Madness, but are unfamiliar with Yi. The team that drafts him can sell the "Chinese KG" idea to boost season ticket sales as well as developing the Chinese market. Both Boston and Memphis' season ticket sales took a huge hit on lottery night. They desperately need something to re-excite the owner and the fans. Yi is probably the best consolation at least in the short term, both basketball and marketing-wise.

most skillful offensively?? I doubt that. he has an accurate midrange jumper but a slow release by NBA standard and can drive to the hoop when facing up the basket that's about it. he has no post game to speak of. Oden is definitely better offensively than him now. in fact most Chinese fans project him to be a rich man's Stro Swift with more skills less athleticism. That being that, he's better than Noah.

[htownbball]

[QUOTE=saleem]

Originally Posted by htownbball marcus williams will slip again this year...the one from AZ. i could honestly see him going into the 2nd round with the depth of SG/SF's in the draft this year. I assume you feel that he won't be a good fit at the 26th pick. I'm not arguing with you if feel that way. Just want to make sure.

i just dont like his attitude and how he carries himself. seems unmotivated at times. should be better than he's shown in college. he's a boom or bust IMO.

[htownbball]

Originally Posted by giddyup The guy I i saw talking about Conley (I forget who it was) had him rated equally to both Chris Paul and Deron Williams. That surprised me. I keep thinking of Henry Bibby who was a nice player but enjoyed a collegiate career with Kareem and was less productive as a pro.

well its not like oden was a huge offensive force in college, so i dont see how conley was riding his coattails. he's shown that he can lead his team and that he understands how to distribute the ball.

remember, this is a weak crop of PG's, and next year is a very strong crop. HOWEVER, atlanta will be forced to give up their pick next year to phoenix, no matter where they pick. might as well go for the top PG this year, their biggest need.

[E Wizzle]

McRoberts is the kind of player to drop and a disappointing year by Duke certainly didn't help.

[Desert Scar]

I think Conley is a great prospect. Tremendous quickness, court sense, leadership and strong and long arms for his ht. The best raw tools in a PG since Paul/Williams. I think he probably already is better than Devin Harris, just has to work on that jumpshot to be devastating.

When Ohio State needed to score they went through him to create, not Oden. In fact even when Oden wasn't available Conley kept that team top 5.

If I am Atlanta I want Mike Conley. If I traded down I wouldn't go past the 5 spot and hope to get him. I suspect they don't mess around and just take him at #3.

[Desert Scar]

[QUOTE=htownbball]

Originally Posted by saleem i just dont like his attitude and how he carries himself. seems unmotivated at times. should be better than he's shown in college. he's a boom or bust IMO.

I live in Tucson and I am not much of a Marcus Williams fan. But for a late 1st round pick his talent makes him interesting to consider. He does have a lot of natural basketball ability in prototypical NBA swingman frame--it is just him like the rest of the team you never knew when he would show up.

Two guys who really chewed up Arizona were Aaron Brooks and Sean Singletary. And I mean just destroyed em. Am I mislead in thinking both are a lot better than anyone off of Arizona? Am I wrong that Brooks will be a solid back-up scoring PG (in the mold of Troy Hudson/Bobby Jackson/Boykins types) or that Singletary could be a starting PG somewhere in between what TJ Ford and Rafer Alston offer (undersized, but can shoot, distribute, penetrait, run the team?).

[jpsamhyz]

Originally Posted by Jonhty most skillful offensively?? I doubt that. he has an accurate midrange jumper but a slow release by NBA standard and can drive to the hoop when facing up the basket that's about it. he has no post game to speak of. Oden is definitely better offensively than him now. in fact most Chinese fans project him to be a rich man's Stro Swift with more skills less athleticism. That being that, he's better than Noah.

His lack of post game has more to do with him shying away from physical contact than lack of skill. He not only has a good spot-up midrange jumper, but also a pretty accurate turnaround jumper, which could translate into postup play. He is developing a baby hook as well. The key is really whether he can get stronger and get used to the physical play. If so, he can be at least a poor man's Pau Gasol or Jermaine O'neal. If not, then he is like a Swift.

[BuckJohnson79]

in a very weak point guard class, Conley does not slip passed five. I can see Jeff Green (who i love) slipping due to his lack of agressive nature, I could also see Noah falling into the 20's. I think we're looking abroad at our pick maybe Fernandez..

[A_3PO]

I can see Conley and Noah slipping. The Hawks might take Conley at 3 because the blew it so hugely two years ago by taking Marvin Williams instead of Deron Williams or Chris Paul. To top that off, Speedy Claxton was a complete bust of a free agent for them last season.

IMO, Conley is a reach at 3. He hasn't shown me anything close to Paul or Williams, both of whom deserved their high draft status. I predict Conley will have a tough adjustment to the NBA and it could take him 2-3 years to start shining. I liked him at OSU but he should be a mid-round pick. Watch Billy Knight drive another stake in the Hawks by taking Conley. He won't be with the franchise by the time Conley develops into a good player. However, if the Hawks don't take Conley, he could fall to where he deserves.

I've said enough about Noah in the past. To summarize, he has very few skills on offense which limits his potential. He hasn't taken the time to develop them by now and probably never will. He's a very ethereal guy (like his father) and I question how dedicated he will be to basketball.

[htownbball]

i have noah falling to philly. philly has multiple picks, and with the depth at SG/SF, they can afford to take him at 12 and pick a SG/SF or a PG later. noah will play PF and will fit in nicely with their transition game. with andre and iggy being able to distribute the ball, they should be able to find him and use him as a chuck hayes, layup type scorer.

[panamamyers]

Brandon Rush will slip...right into our laps hopefully.

[SamFisher]

Brazilian Vaporware, aka Tiago Splitter