Yet another Rafer thread

kokopuffs · 02-25-2007, 04:34 PM

So Clutch always posts that we need Rafer to shoot a better percentage for us to win, which got me curious - do we actually win more games when Rafer shoots well?

So I took a look at the stats from our 20 losses this year, and did a little math.

It turns out that in our 20 losses, Rafer shot:

107-257 FGM-FGA or 41.6%, about 4% higher than his season average and
44-125 3PM-3PA or 35.2% or about 2% lower than his season average.

If you throw out the game that he got tech'ed out (NOK game), he shot
107-255 or 42.0% from the field and
44-124 3PM-3PA or 35.5% from 3point land.

He had 104 assists in those 20 games (102 if you throw out NOK) and 52 turnovers, a 2:1 (1.96:1) A/TO in those games. For reference, his season average is 2.3:1, or 2.64:1 in our wins.

What's even more significant in my mind is that in only 5 of our losses has Rafer shot significantly worse than his season average. (I define significantly less as more than 5% below season average).

On the other hand, Rafer has committed 2.84 PF/game in our losses, compared to a season average of 2.47 PF and 2.26 fouls per game in our wins.

So given this data I'd posit that Rafer's ballhandling and defense is a much better indicator than his shooting percentage of whether the Rox will win.

Granted, we could have won more games if he shot better, but I think that finding someone who's able to pick up the slack in those areas contributes more to winning.

WhoMikeJames · 02-25-2007, 04:39 PM

Do you have the stats for when we win.

R0ckets03 · 02-25-2007, 04:46 PM

So despite him SUCKING BIG DONKEY NUTZ, we still win?

Achilleus · 02-25-2007, 04:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by R0ckets03

So despite him SUCKING BIG DONKEY NUTZ, we still win?

He's just talking about shooting.

wnes · 02-25-2007, 04:53 PM

Interesting thread. My hunch is Rafer's play making (high assists, low turnovers) is more critical to the Yao-only (TMac-less) Rocket team, while his shooting (3-pt or otherwise) is more important in TMac-only (Yao-less) Rocket team. The problem is we don't have large enough sample size for the former case.

kokopuffs · 02-25-2007, 04:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WhoMikeJames

Do you have the stats for when we win.

Including tonight's stats...

Rafer made 165 of 463 shot attempts in 35 wins, or 4.7 per 13.2 shots each game.

This comes out to 35.6% from the field in our wins.

Rafer made 85 of 216 3pointers in our 35 wins, or 39.4% from long range.

Sextuple Double · 02-25-2007, 04:57 PM

Simply put:

Rafer = wins

Nice Rollin · 02-25-2007, 05:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sextuple Double

Simply put:

Rafer = wins

no

McGrady=Wins

cmon man. we're winning cuz of McGrady's greatness. take out Mac and we lose...

R0ckets03 · 02-25-2007, 05:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sextuple Double

Simply put:

Rafer = wins

LOL! Thanks! :D

Carl Herrera · 02-25-2007, 05:27 PM

82games.com numbers on Rockets with vs. without Rafer

http://www.82games.com/0607/06HOU2D.HTM

1. There is a fairly good sample size to compare Rafer on/off the court: Rafer has played 75% of total Rockets minutes this season, around 2000 minutes on the court, and 640 off the court.

2. Rafer reduces Turnovers significantly: When Rafer is on the court, the Rockets average 13 TOs per 48 minutes. When he's off the court, the Rockets average 16 TOs per 48 minutes.

3. Rafer increases Rockets overall shooting by a moderate margin: eFG= 50.2% on, 49.3% off. Not enough to really say anything, except that despite personally shooting sub 40% from the field (granted, with a large numbers of 3s) , he seems to help the rest of the team enough so that they offset his low % shooting.

4. No positive impact on FT attempts: Rockets attempt 21 FTs per 48 minutes with Rafer on, 23 FTs per 48 with him off. So there isn't evidence to say he gets the team to get to the line more.

5. Rafer increases overall offense efficiency. When Rafer is on the court, the Rockets score about 108 points per 100 possessions. When he's off, the Rockets score only about 103 points per 100 possessions.

Mostly, it seems the difference Rafer makes are in 1) not turning the ball over and 2)help others get good shots even while he takes low % shots.

Madman George · 02-25-2007, 05:28 PM

i am a vspan fan and i would really want to see him play but i don't get this hate ppl give rafer alston. the guys is the team's only seasoned pg plays well shoots ok etc. he may not be no steve nash but he gets ya over the line. right now he is the best the team has and i think he deserves backing up at lest untill after the playoffs.

Rockets111 · 02-25-2007, 05:57 PM

FINALLY, fans on here are seeing why I'm a fan of this guy. Blaming the Rockets' woes on Alston is just a severe sign of desperation for those who want a scapegoat. It's ALWAYS easier to blame the PG.

TracywtFacy · 02-25-2007, 06:03 PM

it seems he has finally stepped up, and has improved his game significantly over the season - it would be a dream if this form is consistent, and if he plays like he has been recently throughout the playoffs, we may dare to think the unthinkable...

BroadwayBelm · 02-25-2007, 06:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Carl Herrera

82games.com numbers on Rockets with vs. without Rafer

http://www.82games.com/0607/06HOU2D.HTM

1. There is a fairly good sample size to compare Rafer on/off the court: Rafer has played 75% of total Rockets minutes this season, around 2000 minutes on the court, and 640 off the court.

2. Rafer reduces Turnovers significantly: When Rafer is on the court, the Rockets average 13 TOs per 48 minutes. When he's off the court, the Rockets average 16 TOs per 48 minutes.

3. Rafer increases Rockets overall shooting by a moderate margin: eFG= 50.2% on, 49.3% off. Not enough to really say anything, except that despite personally shooting sub 40% from the field (granted, with a large numbers of 3s) , he seems to help the rest of the team enough so that they offset his low % shooting.

4. No positive impact on FT attempts: Rockets attempt 21 FTs per 48 minutes with Rafer on, 23 FTs per 48 with him off. So there isn't evidence to say he gets the team to get to the line more.

5. Rafer increases overall offense efficiency. When Rafer is on the court, the Rockets score about 108 points per 100 possessions. When he's off, the Rockets score only about 103 points per 100 possessions.

Mostly, it seems the difference Rafer makes are in 1) not turning the ball over and 2)help others get good shots even while he takes low % shots.

good stuff man

kokopuffs · 02-25-2007, 06:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Carl Herrera

82games.com numbers on Rockets with vs. without Rafer

http://www.82games.com/0607/06HOU2D.HTM

1. There is a fairly good sample size to compare Rafer on/off the court: Rafer has played 75% of total Rockets minutes this season, around 2000 minutes on the court, and 640 off the court.

2. Rafer reduces Turnovers significantly: When Rafer is on the court, the Rockets average 13 TOs per 48 minutes. When he's off the court, the Rockets average 16 TOs per 48 minutes.

3. Rafer increases Rockets overall shooting by a moderate margin: eFG= 50.2% on, 49.3% off. Not enough to really say anything, except that despite personally shooting sub 40% from the field (granted, with a large numbers of 3s) , he seems to help the rest of the team enough so that they offset his low % shooting.

4. No positive impact on FT attempts: Rockets attempt 21 FTs per 48 minutes with Rafer on, 23 FTs per 48 with him off. So there isn't evidence to say he gets the team to get to the line more.

5. Rafer increases overall offense efficiency. When Rafer is on the court, the Rockets score about 108 points per 100 possessions. When he's off, the Rockets score only about 103 points per 100 possessions.

Mostly, it seems the difference Rafer makes are in 1) not turning the ball over and 2)help others get good shots even while he takes low % shots.

I feel like on-off stats are a little misleading, just because of who we've got backing up Rafer: Luther (terrible at PG), JL3 (extremely terrible at PG), and Vspan (infinitely terrible at PG).

Yetti · 02-25-2007, 06:53 PM

Looks like things are possibly turning around for Alston and that he might yet turn out to be a significant contributor to our Rockets team. Well done Alston!!
This doen't alter the fact that we still need a distributor playmaker to ease the burden on Tracy McGrady. One who finds it an easy thing to pass the ball to Yao Ming when he is in the scoring position and calling for it. There is of course a chance that Alston might be able to develop his game, to become this player.

Carl Herrera · 02-25-2007, 06:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kokopuffs

I feel like on-off stats are a little misleading, just because of who we've got backing up Rafer: Luther (terrible at PG), JL3 (extremely terrible at PG), and Vspan (infinitely terrible at PG).

These guys are subpar, but I wouldn't say totall terrible... the Rockets score 103 points per 100 possession on offense, and give up 100 per 100 possessoin on defense with Rafer out. It's still a winning pace, so at least they are not terrible enough to make the team totally fall apart-- Though 103 pts per 100 possession is below average.

And offensive efficiency of 108 points per 100 possessoin is also a pretty decent pace, whatever happens with him on the bench.

adeelsiddiqui · 02-25-2007, 07:11 PM

am I the only one who thinks 82games.com sucks

heypartner · 02-25-2007, 07:17 PM

I can't argue with Clutch...on this subject. What he says is pretty spot on. Rafer is our weakest link starter.

Except I think he overrates Rafer's issues.
Well, what I really mean is I think he underrates JVG's ability to hide Rafer's deficiencies and to exploit his good things.

I've said before that Rafer needs to shoot 39% 3s if he is going to shoot that many open ones....for him to shoot 37.5% is close, but not at 7/gm...his % should rise or his attempts should fall.

but, hell...I've learned this year that Alston's stats are not the whole story. This guy is running the best fastbreak's i've seen the rox run in 15 years, at least. and he is confident. when is the last time we've had a confident pure pg.

i love it.

GermanRoxFan · 02-25-2007, 07:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kokopuffs

So Clutch always posts that we need Rafer to shoot a better percentage for us to win, which got me curious - do we actually win more games when Rafer shoots well?

So I took a look at the stats from our 20 losses this year, and did a little math.

It turns out that in our 20 losses, Rafer shot:

107-257 FGM-FGA or 41.6%, about 4% higher than his season average and
44-125 3PM-3PA or 35.2% or about 2% lower than his season average.

If you throw out the game that he got tech'ed out (NOK game), he shot
107-255 or 42.0% from the field and
44-124 3PM-3PA or 35.5% from 3point land.

He had 104 assists in those 20 games (102 if you throw out NOK) and 52 turnovers, a 2:1 (1.96:1) A/TO in those games. For reference, his season average is 2.3:1, or 2.64:1 in our wins.

What's even more significant in my mind is that in only 5 of our losses has Rafer shot significantly worse than his season average. (I define significantly less as more than 5% below season average).

On the other hand, Rafer has committed 2.84 PF/game in our losses, compared to a season average of 2.47 PF and 2.26 fouls per game in our wins.

So given this data I'd posit that Rafer's ballhandling and defense is a much better indicator than his shooting percentage of whether the Rox will win.

Granted, we could have won more games if he shot better, but I think that finding someone who's able to pick up the slack in those areas contributes more to winning.

is that you, jeff? got a new spreadsheet about random stats from morey?