Numbers show Carr ready to succeed I just finished reading PFW writer Jeff Reynolds' piece on the QB class of 2002 (David Carr, Joey Harrington and Patrick Ramsey) and thought it would be interesting to take a look at their 2004 performance metrics and see what story they told. When I break down game tape, I am looking to answer specific questions that the standard play-by-play sheet doesn't measure. For QBs, some of the basic questions I am looking to answer include: • How often does a QB throw a short, medium, or deep pass? What is his completion percentage at each of these levels? (For more on the passing tree, click here) • How often does a QB throw to an open receiver, and how often does he force the ball into coverage? • How often does a QB make a bad decision? Does he force passes into coverage? Does he try to throw the ball while being sacked? Does he stare at receivers? • How accurate are a QB's passes? We can easily track a QB's completion percentage, but I also want to know how often he throws a pass the receiver can catch. I track each of these items and more using a scouting system I devised over the years. The system is largely based on tracking what I call performance metrics. Performance metrics are simply the tools I use to quantify how well a player played. These metrics can be measured separate from the standard statistical line and allow you to see how a player actually performed. I'll highlight some of these metrics in each of the QB reviews. David Carr Quarterback Houston Texans Profile 2004 SEASON STATISTICS Att Comp PaTD RuTD Int Rat 466 285 16 0 14 83.5 • David Carr If you look at the standard statistical sheet from the 2004 season for Carr, you wouldn't come away that impressed. Carr did throw for more than 3,500 yards and had a completion percentage over 60 percent, but he only threw 16 TDs and had 14 interceptions. His passer rating was 83.5, which placed him 16th in the league. When you look at some of Carr's performance metrics measurements, however, you come away with a much different picture. For example, let's take the bad-decision metric. When a QB makes a bad decision on a play, I measure that under the bad-decision metric. If a QB throws a pass into coverage, throws the ball while being sacked, stares at a receiver or any other mistake along those lines, I mark that as a bad decision. I also put a weight on each of these bad decisions, ranging from a one-point bad decision to a five-point bad decision. A one-point bad decision might be when a QB stares at a receiver but throws an incomplete pass. A five-point bad decision might be where a QB is being sacked at the end of a game his team has basically won, but instead of taking the sack, he ends up throwing the pass and having it intercepted, thus causing his team to lose. Bad decisions are probably the most important metric for a QB, as any QB who consistently makes bad decisions will be benched. Of the 451 passing plays I charted for Carr last season -- I missed some when hurricanes knocked my satellite out -- he made only 10 bad decisions. Of those, nine were of the one-point variety. To put that in perspective, only 2.2 percent of the Carr pass plays I charted resulted in a bad decision -- good for fifth in the league in that category. It gets even better for him when you look at what I call weighted bad decisions. Weighted bad decisions are the numbers you get when you add the point values of the bad decisions and express them as a percentage. For example, Carr made nine one-point bad decisions and one three-point bad decision. If you add those point values up, you get 12 weighted bad decision points. If you express those 12 points as a percentage, you get 2.7 percent. That percentage ranked Carr third in the NFL, behind only Byron Leftwich and Peyton Manning in that category. Carr's metrics make it clear he has All-Pro potential. If Carr's offensive line can stay healthy this year and protect him, and if they can simply find one other decent receiver to offset some of the pressure on Andre Johnson, his standard statistical measurements should start to catch up with his performance metrics. Joey Harrington Quarterback Detroit Lions Profile 2004 SEASON STATISTICS Att Comp PaTD RuTD Int Rat 489 274 19 0 12 77.5 • Joey Harrington Harrington's standard stat line is somewhat similar to Carr's. He threw 19 TDs to Carr's 16, had 12 interceptions to Carr's 14, and ranked 22nd in passer rating to Carr's 16th. When you look at the performance metrics for Harrington, though, you start to see why the Texans still have faith in Carr and why the Lions signed Jeff Garcia this offseason. As I mentioned earlier in this article, I measure not only a QB's completion percentage but also how often his passes are accurate. What I mean by an accurate pass is a pass that a receiver should be expected to catch. If the pass is somewhere in the chest area of the receiver, or within the reach of his hands, I credit the QB with an accurate pass. It is an area that is fairly easy to score high in, especially for quarterbacks who throw a lot of short passes. You would expect Harrington to score high in this, especially since 341 of the 503 passes I charted of Harrington's last year were short ones. To put that in perspective, that is 67.8 percent of his total passes, or the sixth-highest short pass percentage in the league. Despite this abundance of short passes, Harrington's overall accurate pass percentage was only 39.4 percent, which ranked him 24th in the league and was the primary reason his overall completion percentage was so low. The bad news for Harrington is that he wasn't just inaccurate at short passes. He was inaccurate at every pass depth level. He ranked 32nd in accurate pass percentage on deep passes and 26th on medium passes. I know that Detroit fans are going to point out that Harrington had a terrible group of receivers and tight ends in 2004, with Az-Zahir Hakim and Tai Streets both getting a lot of playing time due to injuries. My counter to that is that Carr's receivers were just as pitiful as Harrington's, with Jabar Gaffney, Corey Bradford and Derick Armstrong all getting more action last year than they would have if sheer talent equated to playing time. And don't even get me started on Harrington's bad decision percentages, especially at the deep-pass level. I have my thoughts on why Harrington's accuracy is so bad, and I think it has to do with his toughness in the pocket. I was rather harsh on him in Scientific Football 2005 -- the article is titled "You don't have to be John Wayne, but you can't be Pee Wee Herman either" -- but maybe Garcia nipping at his heels will give him the motivation to stand in against the rush. Patrick Ramsey Quarterback Washington Redskins Profile 2004 SEASON STATISTICS Att Comp PaTD RuTD Int Rat 272 169 10 0 11 74.8 • Patrick Ramsey Ramsey's 2004 performance was something of a mix of what Carr and Harrington did. He had some high points -- his overall accurate pass percentage ranked him second in the league. The problem for Ramsey is that his metric measurements were overwhelmingly positive on short passes but not up to par at the other depth levels. Ramsey's metrics on short passes were so good that in some cases they more than offset the measurements at the other depth levels. For example, his deep metrics were among the worst in the league. Ramsey only threw 30 deep passes in 2004, a total which ranked 30th. Now before you point out that he didn't play much of the season, I'll point out that deep passes accounted for 12.9 percent of Ramsey's total passes, and that percentage ranked 27th in the league. But that wasn't the only deep issue for Ramsey. He ranked 31st in deep completion percentage and 14th in deep pass accuracy percentage. Remember how Carr had only 10 bad decisions and 12 weighted bad decision points all year long? Ramsey had five bad decisions at the deep level alone, and they accounted for 15 weighted bad-decision points. This would be a big issue with any offense, but it is especially problematic in a Joe Gibbs offense. The Gibbs philosophy over the years has been to have a power running game teamed up with a deep passing game. Gibbs didn't always run his offense that way, but he did whenever he had a running back he could punch you in the mouth with, and he has that with Clinton Portis. I usually don't put a lot of stock in preseason performance, but I recently broke down the Cincinnati-Washington preseason game and found something very interesting. Ramsey started the game and played the first half. In that time, he threw 10 deep passes. Just to put that in perspective, the QB who attempted the most deep passes last year was Jake Delhomme. Delhomme threw 121 deep passes in 16 games, or an average of 7½ deep passes per game. Gibbs had Ramsey throw more deep passes in one half than most teams throw in a game, and I think he did it to test Ramsey at that depth level. How did he do? Ramsey's stat line on deep passes: 4-for-10, 134 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs. A 40 percent completion rate on deep passes will rank you in the top 10 in the league, and the 134 yards and a TD were obviously good. The two interceptions were the problem, and one of them came on a three-point bad decision. That equates to a bad-decision percentage of 10 percent and a weighted bad-decision percentage of 30 percent. If those numbers continue into the regular season, they are bad enough to get Ramsey benched. KC Joyner, aka The Football Scientist, has a Web site at http://thefootballscientist.com. He is a regular contributor to ESPN Insider
Carr's outlook appears more promisingBy Jeff Reynolds Pro Football Weekly The Texans, an expansion franchise building one block at a time, are navigating unfamiliar waters. But the growing pains don't last as long these days because they know brighter days are ahead. Yes, Houston's club remains under construction. But the Texans are resolved in their idea that they have the key to solving the NFL's ultimate puzzle. David Carr, the first overall pick in the 2002 NFL draft, already is recognized as the pillar of the franchise, even if the team's mild success and Carr's modest statistics don't trumpet that fact to all of the viewing public. Unfazed, the Texans believe this, Carr's fourth season, is their year. Critiquing the '02 QBs In the NFL, the word "irreplaceable" applies only to Super Bowl trophies. There are no untouchables in a league that rewards first downs and touchdowns with millions. Especially if you play the QB position, a role reviewed and critiqued more closely than an Enron audit, and, to draw further attention, have come into the league as a first-round pick. In 2002, David Carr (first overall to the Texans), Joey Harrington (No. 3 to the Lions) and Patrick Ramsey (No. 32 to the Redskins) came into the NFL. Carr, secure as a vital part of the Texans' nucleus, stands out as the only member of the QB class of 2002 who shouldn't fear playing his way into unemployment in '05. Harrington's Lions won just six games in '04. Detroit signed Jeff Garcia to push its prized pupil and has eliminated any excuses about a lack of talent by surrounding him with a supporting cast of college stars, including four first-round picks: RB Kevin Jones and WRs Charles Rogers, Roy Williams and Mike Williams. If Ramsey lacks confidence, it would be hard to blame him. Since he has been in the league, the Redskins have offered him up for trade; replaced him with aging Mark Brunell; and, in April, drafted yet another quarterback in the first round, Auburn's Jason Campbell. PFW lowers the magnifying glass over this trio, two of whom are literally playing for their jobs. -- Jeff Reynolds "He is better every year as far as knowledge of the game and execution at his position," Texans general manager Charley Casserly said. "The biggest thing with his statistics is how much support we have around him. We need to protect the quarterback better. And as our weapons improve with experience and time, [Carr's] statistics will improve. His ability, his toughness, that can't be questioned." The "rule" that says quarterbacks should make a great rise by their third season doesn't necessarily apply to Carr, given the fact that his third year also marked the third birthday of the Texans' franchise. Even so, the learning curve hasn't been as steep for Carr as the numbers -- 34 touchdowns, 42 interceptions in 44 career games -- suggest. "If I recall, Troy Aikman didn't come right in and do great things," Texans QB coach Greg Roman said. "This is such an incremental process." Excellence is the exception, not the expectation, for rookie quarterbacks, as even the Aikmans and Elways found out. Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger -- truly the exception -- instantly became a model for fans and coaches alike to wonder, "Why not our rookie?" Roethlisberger, the 11th pick in the 2004 draft, who won 14 games in his first NFL season, had the good fortune of being drafted by a team with few holes, a strong veteran presence and a near impenetrable offensive line. Note that Roethlisberger was sacked 30 times in '04. That probably sounds like living a charmed life to Carr, who was dropped 31 times in his first five career starts and an NFL-record 76 times during a painful 4-12 inaugural season for the Texans. The assault has been almost nonstop. In Carr's 44 career games, the Texans kept opponents from sacking him only five times, and opponents have 140 total sacks of Carr (49 last season). For relief, Carr avoided most football-related activity for about five weeks when the season ended in January. "My body gets sore," Carr said, "and I needed a break." Roman and offensive coordinator Chris Palmer beckoned Carr for a series of meetings in February. In those meetings, the Texans' offensive brain trust decided to refine the team's offensive approach dramatically. "We found some [offensive linemen] who can play and give good effort, work hard," Carr said. "We just need to find the right mix. We're still doing that, I guess. The continuity there is the last piece of the puzzle for us." Getting over the past The Lions hiring Ted Tollner to take over as offensive coordinator gave QB Joey Harrington the thing he needed most -- a clean slate. Harrington, the third overall pick in 2002, sees constant reminders of his failures in Detroit. A 14-30 career record dogs him like Patton on a turncoat, and no West Coast offense can accept a .542 career completion percentage. Tollner needs Harrington to forget that he has seven interceptions in his last three games against the Vikings and concentrate on the possibility of throwing seven touchdowns in his next two against Minnesota. "The big thing is confidence in what you see and what you are prepared to do," Tollner said. Because Harrington's top target has been a revolving door among Az-Zahir Hakim, Bill Schroeder, Charles Rogers and Roy Williams, he never established a sense of timing with any of his receivers. Harrington waited for receivers to uncover from defensive backs and break open before releasing the ball -- the worst of habits for an NFL quarterback, the equivalent to blurred vision in everyday life. "The anticipation of turning the ball loose on time is critical because of the speed of the game," Tollner said. "The time span to make decisions is limited. You have to believe, not only in yourself but in the people you are working with, to do the right thing. If we can keep this group together, that confidence will come, and with it the anticipation. I think that is the most important thing for a quarterback." If Harrington can trust and live in the present, he can be a hero. If he cannot, he might be gone. -- Jeff Reynolds Clearly, better pass protection was a necessity. But both Palmer and head coach Dom Capers thought making the offense in general more comfortable for their quarterback was a requisite to Carr's making the jump to Pro Bowl status. "We decided we needed to change some things," Carr said. "Our offense needed to be more consistent. We tweaked some things. There were a lot of times we scored some points but couldn't put teams away. There were times we really needed a first down and couldn't get it." Roman implied that the "new" offense could look at times like the "old" offense. Minor changes -- many of which included new ways to involve freakishly athletic WR Andre Johnson while shaking him from constant double coverage -- are geared to help all involved. The offensive line has fewer protection schemes and improved personnel. Carr has clearer objectives and primary reads and, thus, perhaps gives the Texans the franchise quarterback some fans can't see through the bruises. "The meetings were really productive in that we got a chance to re-evaluate everything, top to bottom," Roman said. The Texans have not recently addressed Carr's mechanics or release point, both of which were critiqued heavily before the '02 draft. Others believe his awkward release -- anything but smooth or textbook and almost side-winding -- is detrimental to his own progress. "Every quarterback has a style that is his own," Roman said. "Technique, that is something you are constantly addressing. But David having a lot of different release points is just [making] plays, getting the ball out against pressure." Try as he might, Carr cannot carry the day in Houston without more help. "I have to continue to be more consistent," he said. "There were times last year when I did very well. There were times when I struggled and then the team struggled. That link is true with most quarterbacks -- if you don't play well, the team is going to be hurting. As consistent as I can be, that will show up in how good our team as a whole is." Running out of chances? To make the argument that Redskins QB Patrick Ramsey has had chances to nail down the starting job in Washington, the issue of defining the word "chance" would need to be resolved. Ramsey was the first draft choice of the Steve Spurrier era and just the second quarterback (the other was Heath Shuler in 1994) drafted by the Redskins in the first round since 1961 (Norm Snead, Wake Forest). The impatient Spurrier gave Ramsey five starts as a rookie, but only after trying Danny Wuerffel and Shane Matthews -- former pupils of Spurrier's at Florida. In Year 2, Ramsey showed decent progress. He threw nine interceptions in 337 attempts while fighting to survive behind a leaky offensive line, but he missed five games with a foot injury. Exit Spurrier before the 2004 season. Ramsey believed a meteoric rise was possible, what with the addition of RB Clinton Portis and the opportunity to work within the offense of Hall of Fame head coach Joe Gibbs. Before Gibbs so much as heard Ramsey's cadence, the Redskins had traded for and handsomely paid Mark Brunell, who turned 34 in the first month of the season. Ramsey quietly worked as the backup. But he finished the year with seven starts, completing 62.1 percent of his passes in a ragged offense. In April's draft, Gibbs used his only first-round pick on -- what else -- a quarterback, even trading up to get Jason Campbell. Gibbs traded both starting wide receivers, Laveranues Coles and Rod Gardner, who didn't produce great numbers last season. Brunell has been better in 2005 training camp, and Campbell might soon enter the mix. What we're saying is that Ramsey still has a chance. -- Jeff Reynolds In spurts, both RB Domanick Davis and Johnson are holding up their ends of the bargain. Last season, Davis started slowly, rushing for 31 or fewer yards in three of the Texans' first six games. In Houston's final eight games, Davis ran for 828 yards and had at least one touchdown in each game. He finished 11th in the NFL in rushing. But Davis' upturn in production corresponded with a decline for Johnson. The Texans' tweaked offense is designed to get all of its weapons working in tandem, even if it means Johnson will play every WR position or even line up in the backfield to create matchup problems. "My 6-month-old son has a security blanket, has to have it around to go to sleep. Andre is my security blanket," Carr said. "You know, for the most part, he's going to beat his guy. Early on [last] season, we put Andre Johnson in favorable matchups. Him against pretty much anybody is favorable, really. One of the other areas we focused on -- because Andre doesn't see a single snap of man coverage -- is finding a way to get other guys the ball." WRs Jabar Gaffney, Corey Bradford and Derick Armstrong return, but none had more than 41 catches or three scores in '04. The Texans drafted burner Jerome Mathis (who timed in the 4.3s in the 40-yard dash) in the fourth round and continue to mine for a more dependable receiving threat at tight end. By all objective counts, Carr and the Texans are making strides. Both are taking hits about their supposed late arrival, what with fans wondering when the No. 1 pick from four drafts ago will reveal the map to the promised land. To help navigate, Carr leans on veteran first-rounders Trent Dilfer -- a fellow Fresno State alumnus -- and Aikman. "The one common thing I get from both of those guys is patience," Carr said. "The other thing they say a lot is, 'Make sure you are ready when they are ready.' When you go out and start working on stuff and building to the point that we are ready to compete as a team, I have to be ready. I think the team is ready. I have to make sure my game is there, and I think that it is."
