[ESPN Insider] Dismember the Alamo

West contenders load up for San Antonio showdown
By John Hollinger
ESPN Insider

Can the San Antonio Spurs be sunk?

That's the question facing several teams in the Western Conference this offseason. With the Spurs having won three titles in seven years and having been serious contenders the other four seasons, there's little doubt the road to the title will go through the Alamo City at some point. The Spurs suffered no important losses in the offseason and largely stood pat, with Argentine center Fabricio Oberto their lone acquisition. Meanwhile, the other Western contenders have been furiously reshaping their rosters in an effort to match San Antonio's talent and cohesiveness.

How have they fared so far? Let's take a look at the changes the top contenders in the West have made and how those moves fit with their goals at the start of the offseason:



Dallas Mavericks

Goals: Improve the D; don't panic
The Mavericks fell short against Phoenix in the postseason, but they have to like how they closed the season. Once Avery Johnson took over, the Mavs went 16-2 and nearly snuck up on San Antonio to take the Southwest Division.


Dallas resisted the urge to make wholesale changes, which had seemed to be an annual event in Big D. The loss of Michael Finley as a luxury-tax amnesty casualty obviously hurts, but the Mavs can weather that blow. Marquis Daniels should bounce back after an injury-riddled 2004-05 campaign, and the Mavs added defensive specialist Doug Christie, who should team with Josh Howard to give Dallas one Ginobili-stopper on the court at all times.

Of course, Dallas would have received a higher grade if it had done more in the frontcourt. Shawn Bradley retired, and Dallas replaced him by outbidding New York for überstiff DeSagana Diop. (You read that correctly. There was a bidding war for DeSagana Diop.) Thus, the Mavs again are short of candidates to stop Tim Duncan in the post, which could be telling if the two clubs meet in the conference finals. Grade: C+



Denver Nuggets

Goals: Upgrade at shooting guard; add shooters
Denver lost Voshon Lenard on opening night last season and muddled through the season with DerMarr Johnson and Greg Buckner sharing Lenard's shooting-guard spot. However, Denver didn't get nearly enough offense from those two, and the Nuggets' lack of 3-point shooting was a problem all season -- especially in their five-game defeat against San Antonio in the first round, when the Nuggets shot 11-for-42 from downtown.

Unfortunately, Denver might be even worse off this season. Johnson and Buckner both are free agents, as is shooting specialist Wesley Person. Lenard is slated to return, but he's 32 and coming off a serious injury -- and he wasn't that good to begin with.

Worst of all, the Nuggets have struck out completely in the free-agent market. Shooters like Marko Jaric and Michael Finley have rebuffed Denver's advances, forcing GM Kiki Vandeweghe to sift through the Ronald Murrays and Eddie Houses of the world for help. First-round pick Julius Hodge is another option, but he's not a shooter.

Thus, the Nuggets might have to trade from their frontcourt excess (hello, Nene) in order to fill this need. Grade: D-



Houston Rockets

Goals: Get younger; get a power forward
The Rockets also closed the season strongly, but age loomed large heading into the offseason. Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady were the only rotation players under 30, necessitating a quick infusion of youth.


Houston made halting strides in that direction, signing forward Stromile Swift and drafting guard Luther Head, but its advanced age in the backcourt remains a red flag. Mike James is 30, Bob Sura is 32, David Wesley and Charlie Ward are 35, and Jon Barry is 36.

The Swift signing was huge in another respect -- it transformed Houston's greatest weakness (lame production at power forward) into a strength. Swift's 40-minute averages from the past three seasons suggest he'll average close to 20 points, 10 rebounds and three blocks per 40 minutes, numbers Juwan Howard seemingly took weeks to accumulate. Swift's man-to-man defense still needs work, especially if he's going to guard Duncan in the postseason, but his offense alone should add several games to the Rockets' win total. Grade: B+



Phoenix Suns

Goals: Keep the razzle-dazzle, but get tougher
Well, the Suns certainly got tougher.

Phoenix embarked on a quest to become a more physical, defensive-minded team after San Antonio conducted a layup drill on the Suns in the conference finals. Phoenix traded for Kurt Thomas and signed Brian Grant and Raja Bell. Thomas was one of the league's leading rebounders last season and should help out on the boards, while Bell is a hard-nosed defender and Grant a hustling, physical big man. Thomas and Grant also give Phoenix two players who potentially can guard Duncan in crunch time.

The question is whether these acquisitions destroyed everything that made the Suns good in the first place. It's hard to imagine the Suns running-and-gunning to 60 wins again with this roster. Up front, signing Grant was possible only because Phoenix let athletic big man Steven Hunter leave as a free agent, resulting in a serious downgrade at backup center. Trading for Thomas cost the Suns Quentin Richardson and a first-round pick, depriving Phoenix of a scorer on the wings. Meanwhile, Bell's addition was more than offset by the loss of Joe Johnson in free agency, meaning the Suns lost the two men most responsible for their league-leading 3-point barrage.

Moreover, the new guys don't seem to fit the Suns' playing style. It's hard to imagine Steve Nash having similar options on the break this season if he's waiting for Grant or Thomas to get over half court, much as it's difficult to picture Bell creating shots in transition or taking over the point when Nash checks out. Improving the defense was important, but one has to think the Suns overreacted to the conference finals loss to San Antonio. Grade: D+



Sacramento Kings

Goals: Replace C-Webb; build the bench
The Kings had more work to do than most teams after Seattle ran them off the floor in the first round of the playoffs. Fortunately for the Kings, they had an excellent offseason.

Armed only with their mid-level salary exception, they swooped in late to nab high-scoring forward Shareef Abdur-Rahim. He replaces the weak link in the starting lineup, Kenny Thomas, with a nightly 20-10 threat and gives Sacramento one of the game's best starting fives. Much like Detroit, the Kings are light on superstars but each starter is well above average at his position (Abdur-Rahim, Brad Miller, Peja Stojakovic, Bonzi Wells and Mike Bibby).

Signing Abdur-Rahim also puts Sacramento in great shape to rebuild a depleted bench, with Thomas moving to the pine and Corliss Williamson sliding to small forward. Plus, the Kings acquired Jason Hart from Charlotte for a second-round pick and have two assets remaining, restricted free agents Maurice Evans and Darius Songaila. One or both could be converted into a quality backup shooting guard via a sign-and-trade deal. The Kings still could use a big center to lay down the law in the paint, but they've improved themselves as much as any Western contender. Grade: A-



Seattle SuperSonics

Goals: Keep the core; improve the frontcourt
Last season, Seattle matched up with San Antonio the best. The Sonics' physical style frustrated the Spurs and allowed Seattle to extend the series to six tough games despite Rashard Lewis' absence.

That's why the Spurs might be breathing a sigh of relief when they look at Seattle's free-agent departures. The Sonics entered this offseason with virtually everyone on the roster a free agent. Although Seattle kept the most important piece, guard Ray Allen, several other key components have scattered. Super sixth man Antonio Daniels signed with Washington, and forward Damien Wilkins signed an offer sheet with Minnesota. Reggie Evans, Vladimir Radmanovic and Ronald Murray don't have contracts, either. In fact, even the coach left, as Nate McMillan took Paul Allen's bucks to become the new warden in Portland.

Seattle also wanted to improve the frontcourt, which contributed size and fouls but not much scoring last season. On this front, the Sonics have been slightly more successful. They let Jerome James walk, but he was taking minutes away from better players anyway. They re-signed Vitaly Potapenko, and first-round pick Johan Petro should exceed James' output. But losing Daniels in particular was an enormous blow -- Seattle's weak response was signing Rick Brunson -- and as a result the Sonics are very likely to fall off the pace in the West this coming season. Grade: C-

John Hollinger, author of "Pro Basketball Forecast 2005-06," writes for ESPN Insider.

 

Say this for Hollinger: He's better than Chad Ford.

 

Thanks for that article.

 

So will the Kings be better than us ? We shall see....

 

I don't think Hollinger was suggesting that the Kings were better than us, simply that they made the best moves, which frankly surprises me. I think the Kings will compete for a playoff spot, but I don't think they're near a top 4 team in the West.

 

The Kings starting line up looks pretty damn good

 

Good breakdown of the WC. I think we've had the best offseason so far in the West w/ Phoenix, Dallas, and Seattle having the worst.

 

I know he says it would take Juwan weeks to average what Swift did per 40 minutes (20 points, 10 rebs, 3 blocks), but per 40 minutes Juwan did average something like 14 pts and almost 9 rebs. The blocks may take weeks, but it's not as if there's a big difference in their 40 min stats in pts and rebs.

 

Hollinger's assesment also didnt include the Rockets getting Derek Anderson. I think that bumps up the grade from B+ to A- at least.

 

" Hollinger's assesment also didnt include the Rockets getting Derek Anderson. I think that bumps up the grade from B+ to A- at least. "


Agreed.

& that is if we stand pat. But I hear on 610am that we aren't done dealing, but I will comment further on that in the other posts.

 

Yeah, it would be pretty interesting to hear his take on Houston after DA's signing. I really liked his assessment on Sac...I follow the Rockets so closely, that I didn't even realize some of the other moves Sac made (I thought they had fallen off the map entirely).

BTW, thanks for the article post Deuce!

 

For once, I have to say that the ESPN article isn't crap.

I agree that the DA deal should bump up our grade, but I'm sure Hollinger couldn't consider "potential deals" while writing this article (considering the fact that the DA deal hasn't been penned yet).

Kings look like they have a good lineup, but lack depth. When we play them, we'll probably have to win it with our bench (which, I think, is very possible - I really like our depth now).

Of course, if we lose some valuable players in order to bring in Sprewell, that changes things.

 

I thought appealing to per-40-minute stats was... odd. Does anyone seriously think that Swift will actually average 20/10/3 as the 3rd option?

 

Answer: Nobody.

The league should get used to that.

 

He should have thrown the Clippers, Golden State and Minnesota in there as well. Sure, they aren't contenders even if they do make the playoffs, but neither is Sacramento, Denver or Dallas, IMO.

 

SAR is still an upgrade over KT, and KT coming off the bench is legit (if he can play like he did for the Kings last season). But it's not just SAR alone. Miller is gonna be back from an injury that took him basically out all last season. And Bonzi Wells, on any given night is capable of dropping 20+ on you, and probably gives more output than Bobby Jackson who always seems to be on the injured list.

I disagree with you that they are light on the bench. I wouldn't say they have a stellar or rock solid bench, but it's still pretty good with Songaila, KT, Williamson, and even Jason Hart to a certain degree.

 

The Rockets made BY FAR the best improvement out of teams in the West, everyone else has either questionable moves like the Lakers and IMO the Kings, stood still like the Spurs and Nuggets, or lost key players and/or coaches like the Suns, Sonics, and Mavericks.

The Spurs better hope for an injury to either T-Mac or Yao...

 

i had the exact same reservations about Sac, but the have had a pretty solid offseason, albeit very quietly (at least to me). their starting 5 is pretty explosive. they'll be a threat again next season.

wish Hollinger could've waited a day or two to post that article; his assestment w/ DA should put us at an A.