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Which is more Valuable? New York Knicks' 2011 or 2012 draft pick?

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by withmustard, Apr 30, 2010.

  1. withmustard

    withmustard Member
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    With all the talk about Bosh and throwing in NY's draft picks, it got me thinking, which pick is the better one. Of course there is no way of knowing what will happen, but if you had to include one of those picks in a trade TODAY, which one do give up and why?

    While the 2011 pick has the least possible restrictions (#2-13 unprotected), it must be swapped for the our 2011 pick. This pick has no value to the Rockets if the Knicks have a better season than the Rockets. As unlikely as it sounds, you never know. I watched my team go from championship contender on paper, to an overacieving 9th in the west in just 18 months. I also saw OKC go +27 this season.

    Cashing in the pick/s now before any FA activity might be the smart move. I'm excited about the picks as anyone, but Yao's window might be closing and it's hard to imagine the Knicks only winning 29 games again with $30 million to play with. Those 53 losses only netted the Jazz the #10 pick, hopefully (Turner on the Jazz sounds Scary!!). Assuming we win 50 next season that projects to the #17th pick from this seasons standings, only a seven spot difference. I know it's hard to cash your chips in when you're on a roll, but when you do, you're always happy you did.

    The Knicks 2012 pick is top #5 protected, but this pick does not require a swap. If the Kinicks do get a top #5 pick, the rights roll forward for 4 years and then turn to two 2nd rounders.( I wouldn't know that without this site, Clutch is the only person in America that explained, not espn, not nba.com.) With a possible lockout looming 2011, this might make many 2011 NBA ready prospects not declare until 2012, much like how players are scrambling to declare now to avoid that 2011 risk. This pick's value is based on NY sriking out not once, but twice on the FA market.

    Thoughts?
     
  2. withmustard

    withmustard Member
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    What does it take to get editing privleges. I didn't mean to make it one paragraph.
     
  3. withmustard

    withmustard Member
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    Damit, and the thread title. Now i'm gonna get a cool story bro or fail before anyone reads it.
     
  4. Slimjim19

    Slimjim19 Member

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    I'd trade the 2012 pick because I don't think NY is going to have a huge turnaround season.
     
  5. roslolian

    roslolian Member

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    More VAUBLE?

    Cool Story Bro.


    Also I don't know why you're even wondering.

    2011 is a pick swap.

    2012 you get a pick.

    2 picks are better than 1, no? Also on the fluke chance we get a lower record than the Knicks the 2011 is useless. The protections won't really matter because I can't picture a team which can sign guys for almost their entire capspace being in the 5 worst teams in the leastern conference. Supposing they bomb and end up with Gay, Boozer and David Lee, I don't think they can get a lower pick than what they have this season.
     
  6. vince

    vince Member

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    I'd figure in a Bosh trade, both would have to be included. So, they would both be valuable.

    Typically speaking for NBA coaches that are always fighting to keep their jobs, the sooner the pick, the more value it has. That's why you have teams in the NFL trading 3rd rounders this season for 1st or 2nd rounders next season.

    Coaches need help now, because year in and year out, they get evaluated on the performance of the team.

    It's about winning now!
     
  7. True Rocket

    True Rocket Member

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    Would be nice if we could land PG Brandon Knight in the 0'11 draft assuming the Knicks aren't that good. The future would be much brighter with Knight running the show, AB will be like 27.
     
  8. BetterThanEver

    BetterThanEver Contributing Member

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    Trading the 2011 pick means the Rockets would have no pick at all. The 2012 pick would be the least valuable, because we would still have a draft pick.

    A western team with Gay, Miller and Gasol was a perennial lottery team. Gay, Boozer and Lee is a worse combination in a weaker conference, yes. I don't see them making the playoffs, if that's all they have. 3 PFs(including Gallinari), no true C besides Eddy Curry, and few scrubs for guards. That's not even a winning combination in the East.
     
  9. killtaker

    killtaker Contributing Member

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    Respectfully disagree. 2011 draft class will be incredibly weak due to the CBA.. the best players are coming out in 2010 or waiting 'til 2012. Morey will prefer to lose the 2011 pick before the 2012.

    In fact, I see him trading away this years lotto pick away, too. If Yao is truly our main cog then our window is shutting fast. No rookies the next couple of years; trade the picks to add final pieces for a championship run. They're not building at this point, they're tweaking.

    If that window(Yao) shuts by the end of next year(Yao's contract is up), that 2012 pick may be prove to be very valuable and DM just might start 'building' again.

    That said, I don't hesitate trading both '11 and '12 picks NOW if I get a Top20 player in return.
     
  10. leebigez

    leebigez Contributing Member

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    I think it was a good morey got those options, but i think the knicks will wind up with enough good player that they will be in the playoffs the next 2 years. Stranger things have happened though.
     
  11. dobro1229

    dobro1229 Contributing Member

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    I believe that this is a good time to build prospects. Great teams always have young talent on their team mixed with veteran leadership. I hate to reference the Spurs in a positive fashion but look at the David Robinson/Duncan era.

    I think its more productive for us next year, while we are trying to make a run, to have future prospects contribute and grow. So I believe they should keep the 2010/2011/ and 12 picks.

    Looking at the history books, most truely great players like Jordan, Kobe(traded for at the draft), Hakeem, Bill Russell, Larry Bird, were drafted by the team that they became franchise players for.

    Looking at the team in the long run, Take all the first rounders we can get now while we still have a competitive team so we dont have to totally rebuild or pick up over the hill, overpaid Veterans to win a couple games.

    We need to keep the picks. Look at what morey has pulled out of the late first round and second. In Morey we Trust right?
     
  12. killtaker

    killtaker Contributing Member

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    Listen to interview with Morey yesterday

    Morey says, 'Even if we were to keep our pick, he would have no impact the first season.' Given our cap situation, I wouldn't dish out guaranteed money for the 14th pick knowing he's a 'long-term project' when the window is closing for Yao/Battier/Scola?

    I just believe we're at a point where DM is going for impact NOW rather than later.
     
  13. da_juice

    da_juice Member

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    I would trade our rights to 2011, because if I'm correct we still have the rights to switch with the clips in 2011 because of the steve novak trade
     
  14. BimaThug

    BimaThug Resident Capologist
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    The Clippers deal is for their SECOND rounders.

    I think the 2011 pick swap will net the higher pick. My perfect "screw you, New York" scenario would be:

    --Chris Bosh comes to Houston in a sign-and-trade featuring Jordan Hill, Jared Jeffries's expiring contract, and one or both of the Knicks' picks.

    --The New Jersey Nets make a successful hard push to sign David Lee in free agency.

    --Lebron, D-Wade and Joe Johnson stay with their respective teams, with either Amare Stoudemire or Carlos Boozer joining Wade in Miami.

    --The Knicks are faced with the choice to either overpay guys like Rudy Gay and Carlos Boozer or just sign one major (second-tier) free agent and try to pony up again in 2011 for Carmelo.

    In this scenario, the Knicks would be assured of a top 6 pick in next year's draft. The only problem for the Rockets would be the increased risk that it will be #1 overall and thus protected. But that would be a good worry to have for Morey and Co. ;)
     
  15. desi tmac91

    desi tmac91 Member

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    I think Amare still stay in Phoenix...my only worry is Joe Johnson, if the Hawks get bounced tonight then I can see him leaving.

    I agree that the 2011 pick will probably be higher but the only knockdown to it is that there are rumors that a good chunk of the class will not enter the draft because of the CBA concerns.
     
  16. da_juice

    da_juice Member

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    Syill a high pick in a weak draft is better than a low pick in a weak draft
     
  17. desi tmac91

    desi tmac91 Member

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    It won't be low, the Knicks will get better but their pick will be in the mid-late lottery. And I definitely wouldn't like to have a high pick in the 2000 and 2001 drafts. ;)
     

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