What Changes to the Rotation Would You Make Coming Out of the Break?

Or for that matter what changes do you think McHale and Morey will make if any?

First off, what exactly are the Rockets needs?

I think most of us would agree that the Rockets could really use a wing defender and a 3pt snipper from off of the bench. The Center, Power Forward and Point Guard positions seem to be stacked right now. Dwight Howard and Omer Asik are clearly and with out argue the best 1/2 punch at the Center position in all of basketball. The Power Forward position seems to be set up with Terrence Jones and Donatas Motiejunas playing so well right now but neither of those guys are proven in play-off situations. Greg Smith if healthy provides great depth at both the Center / Power Forward positions. So providing DMo and TJones do not regress (and that is still a possibility) the Rockets do not really have any needs in the paint.

The Point Guard position might be one of the most controversial positions on the team and I would agree with anyone that says it would be nice to have an upgrade at the starting position. Having said that, the Rockets do have 3 point guards on the team that have all proven that they are capable as starters or coming off the bench. Jeremy Lin[/b] is clearly the more offensively skilled of the three and has proven that he an start in the league. Patrick Beverly is clearly the best defender of the group and is one of the better pressure defenders in the league. Aaron Brooks is a former MIP and clearly the best 3pt shooter in the group but also the worst defender. So while we could use an upgrade in the starters role, it’s not really a position of weakness for the team either.

James Harden and Chandler Parsons are a pair of the best starting Shooting Guard / Small Forward players in the NBA. Obviously the best duo at those positions would be Lebron James and Dwayne Wade (when healthy). The other duo’s right there would be Lance Stephenson / Paul George. By virtue of being arguably the best player on the planet right now Kevin Durant / Sefolosha are their as well but I’m not a big Sefolosha fan. The problem with Houston is that there has not been good depth at those positions. Both Harden and Parsons are averaging right at 38 minutes a game because of the lack of depth at their respective positions[\i] when teams like the Heat and Pacers can bring in guys off of the bench like Danny Granger, Ray Allen and Shane Battier.

3pt Shooting is clearly a concern heading into the last portion of the season. The Rockets are currently hitting .350% of their 3pt shots which puts them in the bottom 3rd of the league but they take 25.8 3pt attempts per game which leads the league. By comparison, the teams the Rockets are likely to be facing in the play-offs: San Antonio, Portland, Golden State, Dallas, Phoenix are all in the top 10 in 3pt percentage in the NBA. Oklahoma City is right in the middle of the NBA while only Memphis is in the bottom 3rd of the NBA but Houston does not have the same caliber defense that Memphis has.

So in my mind it’s clear, Houston needs better production off of the bench at the Shooting Guard / Small Forward positions. They need someone that can come in and provide defense and 3pt shooting while giving Harden and Parsons some much needed rest.

Addressing the Rotation from With In

MoiseKapenda Bower made a comment in the last podcast that one of the issues with Jeremy Lin and James Harden on the floor at the same time is that Jeremy has a tendency to stand around at the 3pt line, watch James and not play aggressive. When Jeremy plays aggressive he is an elite finisher, runs the offense and plays with confidence. When Jeremy play’s with confidence he becomes Linsanity. Another negative side effect of the Jeremy / James combo is the fact that we have 2 high turnover ball handlers on the court at the same time.

Kevin McHale typically brings Jeremy off of the bench between the 6 and 8 minute mark in the 1st quarter for Patrick Beverly. As a result, Jeremy plays his first 4 to 6 minutes in the games as a passive player that stands around the 3pt line and lets James Handle the ball. I think it’s asking a lot from any player go from being passive the first several minutes you are on the court to changing your mentality at the flip of a switch and becoming aggressive. Jeremy needs a clear and consistent definition of what his role is when he is on the court. Be aggressive, be assertive, take control of the offense, aggressively get the ball into the paint via the Pick and Roll, driving into the paint, dumping it into Dwight or lobbing the ball at the rim. Be Aggressive!!
My solution to achieving this is to change the substitution patterns.

Solution 1:
Instead of bringing Patrick Beverly out at the 6 to 8 minute mark leave him in and bring in Jeremy Lin for James Harden. Why? Because this would give Jeremy a chance to establish a more aggressive attitude while playing the James Harden role on the floor. I think it would be a huge boost to Jeremy and the production we are getting off of the bench by letting Jeremy establish himself on the floor with out Harden. Bring James back in to start the 2nd quarter and bring Beverly back in for Lin around the 8 minute mark in the 2nd quarter.

Solution 2:
Bring Aaron Brooks off of the bench for Patrick Beverly at the 6 to 8 minute mark in the 1st quarter instead of Jeremy Lin. Aaron Brooks is the teams best 3pt shooter. Give Aaron a very clear set of marching orders. You are in the games for one thing, when James passes you the ball out on the 3pt line, if you are open and there is not a better shot immediately available under the basket, shoot the damn 3 ball. Thats the Rockets identity and thats Aaron Brooks identity. When it’s time for James to come out, then bring in Jeremy Lin and tell him to be aggressive. Just like solution 1, it should be much easier for Lin to establish his on court identity when Harden is on the bench. Aaron has performed well when given minutes this season and adding him to the rotation as the back up point guard accomplishes multiple things.

It adds a 40% 3pt shooter to the rotation
it gives Jeremy a chance to establish his on court identity before playing him and Harden together.
It reduces Harden’s minutes by giving Jeremy more minutes to dedicate to the shooting guard position.

The Rockets are a better team when the bench is functioning at a high level and the bench functions at a higher level when Jeremy Lin plays aggressive.

None of that addresses what to do about another wing defender or what to do about Parsons minutes. Casspi has proven to be a nice addition to the bench but he plays better as the Power Forward in a small ball line-up and not so good as a Small Forward in any line-up. If we are going to get some help from with in the current roster for Parsons then I think we are pretty much limited to Cisco Garcia or Robert Covington (if McHale is willing to give him a shot). Garcia is shooting below his career average from the 3pt line but since coming back from injury he is hitting .375 which is just higher than his career average. While Cisco has never been known for his defensive work, he proved during last season’s play-offs that he is more than capable of playing very solid defense. If Cisco is healthy he could be exactly what the doctor ordered for the home stretch and play-off run.

Robert Covington might be another option to get some minutes at the Small Forward spot during the home stretch. He is a young strong Small Forward that play’s defense and can shoot the 3pt shot. James Johnson who was Covington’s team mate at RGV was signed by the Grizzlies earlier in the season and has given Memphis 22 minutes of very productive basketball per game. Can Covington do the same for the Rockets?

Addressing the Rotation through trade

Houston has two max contract players and another player in Chandler Parsons that is set for a big pay day this summer or next. With the right move the Rockets could find themselves as front runners for an NBA championship but the wrong move could lock them into the wrong roster for years with little flexibility to change.

Rumor has it that the Hornets are trying to move Eric Gordon. Eric would provide the Rockets with a versatile 2 guard that also happens to be a good wing defender and an outstanding 3 point shooter. Eric would look great coming off the bench for the Rockets but he is also scheduled to make almost 15 million a season through the summer of 2016. Even if the Rockets were willing to take on his salary what would they have to give up to get him? If the Rockets were to trade for Gordon they would be locked into their roster at least until the summer of 2016. As good as Gordon is I don’t think there is any chance Daryl locks up his roster for him.

Mike Dunleavy and Gary Neal are two names that have come up recently and both are .380 career 3pt shooters. Both guys make about 3.2 million thru the summer of 2015 which seems to be the summer that Daryl Morey is trying to set the team up for another potential max free agent. Gary Neal would add another player with NBA Finals experience. Both Ronnie Brewer and Omri Casspi have fully un guaranteed contracts for next season so they could be candidates in a trade to a team trying to dump some salary. Both makes since coming off the bench and neither would compromise the teams cap flexibility.

Another rumor that seems to be gaining legs is Asik and Lin for Tyson Chandler and Iman Shumpart. At least to me, this trade makes little since. Asik for Tyson is basically a push, both are elite defensive centers with Tyson getting the nod on the offensive end but Asik is clearly the better rebounder. Shumpert would have some value on the Rockets as a back up to James but he does not really come close to having the type of value that Jeremy has. I don’t think Daryl will make a trade just to make a trade and I certainly don’t think he makes a trade that disrupts the Rockets chemistry unless it makes them better today or gives them a chance to be better tomorrow. Throw in Tim Hardaway Jr and we can start talking but in the absence of that, I think it would be a very short phone conversation.

I don’t really expect Daryl Morey to make a move at this trade deadline. I just think it’s too tricky to maintain cap flexibility with this roster while the players he would acquire may or may not make the Rockets good enough to push them over the top. IF a move is made I would think it would be along the lines of a deal for Gary Neal or Mike Dunleavy. My preference would be to insert Aaron Brooks into the rotation at Point Guard and let Jeremy Lin get the majority of his minutes as James back up. I would also give Garcia first shot at backing up Chandler since if his 3pt shot is back that would be exactly what the Rockets need.

 

I basically agree with everything in your post. I really don't think DM will make a move this year as crazy as that sounds when talking about Daryl Morey.

McHale has already put Garcia back into the rotation as well as Asik so our assuming those two perform the way they should, our front court is set. Garcia should help lower CP25's minutes.



I would however like to see