Getting back on track of Astros looking forward, Houston very well could field a 55 fWAR roster for the next few years. They will be in the mix with the Cubs and Dodgers. My current prediction for the 40 man on opening day 2017: RF Springer 3B Bregman 2B Altuve SS Correa DH Gurriel LF Rasmus 1B Reed C Gattis CF Marisnick Bench: Marwin, Castro, Kemp Rotation: Keuchel Archer* McCullers McHugh Musgrove Bullpen: Devenski, Feliz, Sipp, Will Smith*, Hoyt, Giles, Gregerson, Harris AAA: Stassi, Fontana, White, Aplin, Teoscar, Rodgers, Paulino, Hauschild, Frias, Grills, Emanuel, Guduan, Jankowski, West, Gustave I'm thinking Archer for Martes, Moran, K Tucker, Abreu, and Fiers, and Will Smith for Singleton, Fields, Duffy, Peacock, and P Tucker
I don't see how we do not try and retain Fister. The dude has been rock solid this year and looks like he is back to himself.
I don't think he gets a good multi-year contract in FA, particularly if he gets the QO. This year doesn't move the needle for him significantly with regard to the future. He's got the ability to be a solid mid-rotation starter but I don't think that gets paid in FA given his age and stuff.
But it's also about supply/demand, and I keep hearing how this year's FA class is garbage. If so, it's still possible he gets paid better than the QO. (Also depends how he finishes the year given his age and peripherals. Must continue to produce.)
Really good interview/article with Lance McCullers and his progress after injury. The kid has nasty stuff and with his health progressing is gonna be even better. Great for the home stretch
The '27 Yankees are the best statistical team in baseball history, with 66.3 fWAR; what would it take for the 2017 Astros to best that? Glad you asked, and aside from some astoundingly good luck, it isn't as farfetched as it seems. Re-sign Castro and Rasmus. Sign Aroldis Chapman and Jose Bautista in free agency. So here's the roster, with expected WAR, 2017 salary (in millions of $), and rationale for my WAR projections: C Castro 2.0, $10M, he has been worth an average of 2 WAr over his career 1B Reed 2.5, $0.5, would need a breakout, but as the top 1B prospect in the game, he could be a young Helton 2B Altuve 5.0, $4.7, based on trajectory SS Correa 7, $0.5, if he really is a young a-Rod, 7 WAR isn't out of the question 3B Gurriel 3.5, $14, comp is Hanley Ramirez from a few years ago RF Springer 4.5, $5, expected continued improvement CF Bregman 4.0, $0.5, Pedroia with more power and more defensive value LF Rasmus 2.0, $10M, about what he's done the last few years DH Bautista 5.0, $18M, a return to form UT Marwin 1.5, $4M, repeat of 2015 C Gattis 2.0, $4M, repeat of 2014 UT Kemp 0.5, $0.5M, could be a number of guys OF Marisnick 2.0, $0.5M, repeat of 2015 SP Keuchel 3.5, $10M, about what he's done recently SP McCullers 5.0, $0.5, expecting a breakout SP McHugh 3.5, $5M, about what he's done recently SP Musgrove 2.5, $0.5, would need a breakout rookie year SP Fiers 1.5, $3M, about what he's done over his career RP Feliz 1, $0.5M, repeat of 2016 RP Devenski 1.5, $0.5M, repeat of 2016 RP Sipp 0.5, $6M, could be any number of guys RP Harris 1, $5M, what he's done recently RP Gregerson 1, $6.3M, what he's done recently RP Giles 1.5, $0.5M, what he's done over his career RP Chapman 2.5, $15M, what he's done over his career That totals 66.5 WAR (greatest of all time) with a $125.5M payroll (a big jump but still middle of the pack in the league). And that's without making any trades.
Next years lineup will be..... Springer RF Bregman LF Altuve 2B Correa SS Gurriel 3B Marwin 1B Gattis C Reed DH Jake CF Keuchel McCullers Musgrove Mccugh ???? We will let Colby and Gomez walk. Val will want big money and somebody will pay him. Bring back Fister???
Or A.J. Reed becomes the superstar he's been at every level so far. Bregman, Reed, White, Kemp, Tucker, Musgrove, Hoyt, Devo, Feliz are getting nice auditions for the Astros free agent plans
I'm hoping he will. As solid as Marwin has been for us, I'd still hope he's not our 1B & 6 hole hitter going into next year.
I think we've got a decent plan for the outfield going forward. Derek Fisher (just promoted to Fresno) Teoscar Hernandez (hitting .316 at Fresno) Bregman (could be moved to LF or CF) Kyle Tucker (drafted 5th overall) Tony Kemp (hitting .289 in the majors this year) Daz Cameron (drafted in the 2015 supplemental 1st) Ronnie Dawson (taken in the 2016 2nd round) Obviously all of these guys aren't going to be ready, or even close to ready, but I'd hate to commit a big contract to an OF that will block our prospects from playing time. Don't see the need for a DH. I'd rather DH-by-committee with White, Reed, Gurriel, etc. The "need" is at catcher, where Castro is a free agent and Gattis is a backup at best. If we're going to spend money, it should be here. Luckily, there is someone on the market worth the investment.....Wilson Ramos. RF Springer LF Bregman 2B Altuve SS Correa 3B Gurriel C Ramos 1B Reed DH White CF Marisnick Utility: Kemp, Marwin, Gattis, Hernandez
The "need" is to find at least two highly-competent Major League bats. I don't care where they play (with literally 2B being the only exception; yes, i would move Correa if a SS was available). You can not sustain success with a line-up made up of five boom-or-bust players who, when busting (and their cycles seem to be aligned; I hope they don't attract bears), can't do even rudimentary offensive things. (Well, they're offensive, all right, but....)
We've got 3 guys that look to be great locks for above average / young position players in Correa altuve and springer . We should be able to piece together a pretty decent staff especially is keuchel and mchugh can produce closer to the last two years . We appear to have great pitching depth which is always great given that injuries do happen . Our holes are still gonna be there . We either have to bank on our young guys improving and being more consistent ( including gurriel ) or we have to fill them with trades / free agency . The bones and assets are there for us to be at the top of the division . Just like this year . We can't have a skid as bad as we did at the beginning of the season and expect to win the division though . We should be in contention for the division or the wildcard for the foreseeable future , but pitching is always in a flux . If kuechel can't regain form or if McCullers turns out to be consistently injured then we will have to hope that our pitching depth translates to the majors . We are in as good of a position as any team ( barring maybe the Cubs or another team or two I'm forgetting ) we probably have the most future value coupled with present value but that future is always a risk to pan out . I'm high on our future as well as we all should be given the price we paid for it and the advantages we had in accumulating talent .
I'm going to dream a bit and say we go after encarnacion and Desmond Springer -rf Desmond -cf Tuve- 2b Encarnacion - 1b Correa- ss Yuli- DH Louie V- 3b Bregman -lf Gattis- c
If you told me none of those players made a significant contribution in '17-'18, I wouldn't be surprised. I 100% agree with Hey Now that getting two more ML-caliber bats into the lineup should be the goal. With the exception Bregman, the Astros could package all of the rest of those prospects for two 3-3.5 WAR players and the team instantly becomes a legitimate contender. The Astros are basically a lesser White Sox. They're running out there a stars and scrubs line-up. The top 4 of the lineup is as good as any in the league.
I think Teoscar could be have Marwin Gonzalez type production off the bench and K Tucker could have above average #s
This would basically be my ideal lineup. Signing Desmond & Edwin would be great even if we weren't able to resign Valbuena. The people who are suggesting we go with the all unproven or all prospects lineup and expect us to compete for a World Series haven't been watching this whole year. We're gonna need to add two good major league bats at least & it's time to for us to open up the check book. AJ Reed has been terrible, Bregman has already passed him up in BA after that horrendous start. Maybe AJ will figure it out soon or maybe he ends up like Singleton. Can't just count on all these guys living up to their ceiling.
