As of now I think I know: - LF is locked in with Rasmus ... forget Gordon/Cespedes/Heyward/Upton - 1B looks to be low-priority with AJ Reed looming ... I'm gonna forget Davis/Freeman - With the Reds seemingly holding out for a king's ransom, I'm gonna ignore Chapman and Frazier - With rumors of Darren O'Day seeking a deal for 4yrs@$36M, I'm also gonna ignore FA solutions for the pen - Lucroy and Norris are the only 2 available options that could provide a significant upgrade over Castro at Catcher - With so many relievers available in trade, Luhnow will bypass the 'headline' closers for better values to improve the bullpen My new plan for the Astros offseason involves 2 significant trades and 1 minor FA signing: FA #1 1B/DH Justin Morneau (1yr@$7M) 2014 NL batting champion is no longer a perennial MVP contender, as his health and power have deserted him But as a stop-gap to bridge the 1B transition to AJ Reed, he is a significant Lefty improvement over the swing-and-miss RH incumbents Carter/Valbuena/Gattis I'd go as much as 2yrs@$12M to get him, but even that would be just barely more than either Carter or Valbuena are expected to get in ARB Other posters on the board have convinced me this is our guy TRADE #1 - MIL Brewers C Jonathan Lucroy ($4.6M) Would be totally fine with Derek Norris instead, but seems like MIL would want to pick from our prospects above anyone else's Plus, unlike Norris, Lucroy is a major bat to plug into the heart of the order, rather than another weak stick to hide at the end of the lineup TRADE #2 - TB Rays RHP Brad Boxberger ($0.8M) New Closer led AL last year with 41 saves as first-time AllStar Much cheaper alternative to Chapman who won't hit ARB until 2017, FA until 2020 LHP Jake McGee ($4.7M) Replaces Sipp as lefty specialist Won't hit FA until 2018 LHP Matt Moore ($5M) Longshot flier on former top P prospect who won 17 games as an AllStar in 2013 before arm problems Rays may drop prospect price for first 2 just for the 'favor' of taking on his $5M salary in 2016 After that he has Team Options (with buyouts) for $7M, $9M, and $10M from 2017-19 For us, he could start out as a second lefty in the pen, building arm strength after making only 14 starts the past 2 seasons This would also allow Appel time to gain extra polish in AAA Later on, he could be a HUGE boost to the rotation as a veteran lefty to replace Kazmir If he looks like a lost cause in 2016, we can buy out the remaining 3yrs@$26M on his deal for only $2.5M If he regains his 2013 form, we could have a bargain SP locked up until 2019 for an avg of only $7.8M per season Updated 25-man roster below - Somehow, even including big raises for Keuchel and Springer via extensions, this 2016 payroll would actually DROP almost $10M from the end of last season Maybe Zimmermann isn't such a pipe dream after all ...
I'd be shocked if we went after Morneau. I think Luhnow will be more than happy to go with our current options until Super 2 deadline passes for Reed. Obviously we don't know if Reed will make it or not when he gets to the big leagues, but I do think he is Plan A for 1B. As for the Rasmus deal taking us out of the running for those other OF, I don't think there was ever a chance of us spending long term money on an OF. In fact, other than catcher I can't see us spending long term money on any offensive position right now. I think they want to put the best team they possibly can on the field this year, but think they also want another year of watching some of the top prospects and seeing what we already have. If long term money is spent, I think it would be on an arm Would love to see a Lucroy trade, and I actually think Norris would be a decent offensive option with the move to what is at least a neutral offensive park. I would move Appel for Lucroy in a heartbeat, if Milwaukee would The bullpen situation will be an interesting one. I think without a doubt we will add a big piece down there, but don't think we will reach the asking price for Chapman or Miller. I think getting Box would be tough, I know Tampa is ready to sell some relievers, but with the low salary I would think it would be really tough to get Box. I'd be more than willing to take on Moore in a deal to get McGee who could be a really nice addition to the pen
Whoops ... forgot to add Rasmus' $15.8M back in again ... no wonder the new payroll was so low Still ... $90M still seems very reasonable to me: - only adds $6M from end of last season - is right in line with everything Crane/Luhnow have said about bumping the payroll up gradually - still leaves us another $10M or so in 'wiggle room' to improve the team along the way next year and stay around $100M total, which I'm assuming is absolute max budget for 2016 Sorry Preston ... you better take a TON of grounders at 1st this offseason if you want to use your glove much this year in the majors If everybody stays healthy, won't be many ABs in OF for anybody not names Springer/Gomez/Rasmus/Marisnick Maybe Preston becomes trade bait too? My ideal 25-man Roster for Opening Day 2016: TOTAL Opening Day 2016 PAYROLL: $89.1M LINEUP (13 - $51M) STARTING (9 - $46.5M) 2B - Altuve R ($3.7M) 3B - Moran L ($0.3M) SS - Correa R ($0.3M) DH - Morneau L ($7M) RF - Springer R ($5.5M) C - Lucroy R ($4.6M) 1B - Reed L ($0.3M) CF - Gomez R ($9M) LF - Rasmus L ($15.8M) BENCH (4 - $4.5M) UT - Marwin S ($1.9M) OF4 - Marisnick R ($0.7M) IF6 - Duffy R ($0.1M) C2 - Conger S ($1.8M) STAFF (12 - $38.1M) ROTATION (5 - $13M) SP1 - Keuchel L ($8M) SP2 - McCugh R ($4M) SP3 - McCullers R ($0.3M) SP4 - Fiers R ($0.5M) SP5 - Velasquez R ($0.2M) BULLPEN (7 - $25.1M) CP1 - Boxberger R ($0.8M) RP2 - Gregerson R ($6.3M) RP3 - McGee L ($4.7M) RP4 - Harris R ($1M) RP5 - Neshek R ($6.5M) RP6 - Fields R ($0.8M) RP7 - Moore L ($5M)
I agree 1B is gonna be some combo of White/Duffy/Singleton early until Reed is promoted I'm plugging in Morneau as Plan A at DH over Gattis to get his consistent LH contact swing in between all the RH all-or-nothing power hitters throughout this lineup Plus I think he could be a useful mentor for some of our other upcoming lefties, mainly Reed and Moran Best of all, if we could add him for $6-7M next year, his salary would be more than offset simply by non-tendering Carter and Gattis Assuming he can stay healthy as a full-time DH, I'll gladly take Morneau's 2016 contribution to this team over whatever Carter+Gattis could combine to give us Agreed ... catcher is the only good fit to spend on the lineup this offseason The funny/sad part is, both good trade options are likely to earn LESS than what Castro gets in ARB for 2016 If both Lucroy and Norris are moved elsewhere, and we pay Castro more than either next year, that would me a HUGE mistake by Luhnow IMO Well we know TB is hyper-aggressive in moving young, cheap players WELL before they become pricey (Wil Myers for example) If they're starting over (again), moving Box now would be similar to when we moved Melancon several years ago - no matter how good/cheap, a closer is usually the FINAL piece in building a contender If Rays aren't looking to move Box, I'd be totally fine going after Ken Giles instead, whom I like more anyway But I think we both agree Luhnow is not going to compete for a big $ closer like Chapman or Milller with so many other young/cheap options on the trade market
The catcher situation is interesting. I'd be fine with Castro being the primary catcher so long as we upgrade 3B, 1B and/or DH. But not sure that Luhnow will do that, and may rely on Valbuena at 3B, Gattis at DH and the committee approach at 1B. Castro turned down an extension that would have kept him with the Astros through 2018 before the 2014 season. I get the sense that Luhnow doesn't view him as the long term answer, and won't want to match the free agency offers that Castro will get from other teams next year. So I wouldn't be surprised to see Castro moved to make room for a catcher with more years of team control. I also don't expect Conger to be back, as he's a liability on the defensive side. Stassi might be fine as a backup catcher, but doesn't appear ready to be the primary catcher. He also has a couple more years of options, so he'd probably be better off playing every day in the minors this year. So it seems possible we may have two new catchers on the roster next year.
I suspect something was wrong with Conger's arm last season that hopefully can be addressed in offseason. If there wasn't, he might not get tendered. I do think Astros will try to keep Castro in free agency.
There has to be a reason he went from bad to embarrassing. Just a matter of whether it is fixable or not.
I'm starting to believe that Stanford Catchers are Luhnow's weakness, and we should just accept Hinch Castro & Conger aren't going anywhere for awhile Kinda like Kubiak and his Wisconsin TEs ... Much like Ausmus, seems that Castro is gonna milk his 1 AS appearance + great rep/results w P staff into a long career as a starter while routinely ranking among the worst full-time batters in MLB We FINALLY have a legit bat at SS ... is it too much to hope for another behind the plate? I hope not with 2 better & cheaper upgrades available
Yep. I don't think Conger can play catcher going forward without being able to throw anyone out on bases. Either he can going forward or he can't. Considering there are now 4 catchers on 40-man, it may be telling that someone will be leaving.
Ausmus didn't "milk" anything, he kept a job because he was a spectacular backstop, and pitchers loved pitching to him. It's hard for fans to wrap their heads around it because there is no raw number to put a value on their performance like OPS. The fact that very intelligent GM's like Hunsicker and Luhnow, the ultimate numbers GM, seem perfectly content with what they are getting from them should tell you something. Great offense from the catcher is a luxury, their handling of the pitchers is far and away their most important job. Every team in history has a had a few bad hitters in the lineup, and the catcher is usually one of them.
Lol, but Conger didn't go to Stanford (although Lowrie did, so he might be traded for again sometime in the next two years!). Texans, aside from maybe Graham, have done pretty well in picking Badgers (Daniels and Watt).
Too many times there have been passed balls or borderline wild pitches that I fondly remember Ausmus handling with no problem.
People also forget how good a "defensive coordinator" he was. As an opposing player was coming up to bat, I remember watching him step out from behind home plate and direct the infielders and outfielders where to position themselves. Like Bagwell, he did so many things defensively that just cannot be quantified with numbers or a stat. [Bagwell's maniacal sprinting towards a batter as they square up for a bunt is one of my favorite examples...]
I'm not discounting that ... but it's not like Lucroy and (especially) Norris are chopped liver behind the plate either If I have the time I'll try to dig up something I read that rated Lucroy among the best 'pitch framers' in the game And I know Norris led the NL in Caught Stealing last year Maybe neither can get as much from this staff as Castro, but to me, the trade off for a better stick AND a lower price for at least 2 more yrs is an upgrade
Depends on how many and which assets Luhnow has to give up to get one of those two guys. Castro is relatively cheap this year (in the context of MLB payrolls), and doesn't require giving up any assets. I'd be all for getting Lucroy, if the price is right.
I don't think Luhnow is on the "get rid of Gattis" train though. I know Gattis isn't that popular on CF, but Luhnow put together a winner with several guys like him, and I think in the case of Gattis they consider last year his floor with the upside being a lot greater I would love Giles here. I do think they would rather have a Chapman or Miller if they could though. They went after the high money closers last year, it was just that none of them wanted to come here because we were so "bad"
I am pretty sure Gattis will be tendered and will be an Astro. I suspect both he and Carter have a good chance at bounce back years....just is a long bounce to being really productive and that they both have competition. I am doubtful Carter is an Astro on opening day. On Giles, Chapman, Miller....it comes down to the cost (prospect and dollars). Astros obviously want Chapman the most short term, but rumors on what the Reds want is very high at the moment. Reds would need to drop expectations. Astros would likely give up the most for Giles as he looks to be the best value long term. Trading for Miller is a scary proposition as he has some surplus value on that contract, but Yankees are probably trying to capitalize on a team overpaying. That said, if Reds lower asking price, it would not surprise me for the Astros to try to get both Chapman and Giles. It would also not surprise me if the Astros strike out on the trade front and settle for something like O'Day, Madson, and Sipp in free agency.
O'Day may sign before Monday. As he's the top free agent reliever, it might (or might not) spark a move in the closer trade market. He's not a flame thrower, but would be a nice arm in the pen.
OK I did a little digging on Baseball Prospectus and came up with a 3-year CATCHING DEFENSE comparison of Lucroy, Norris, Castro and Conger: Framing Runs 2015 #9 - Norris - 12.3 #11 - Castro - 11.0 #23 - Conger - 3.6 #29 - Lucroy - 1.2 2014 #1 - Conger - 24.9 #6 - Lucroy - 17.2 #11 - Castro - 12.2 #89 - Norris - (-10.6) 2013 #1 - Lucroy - 31.3 #6 - Conger - 17.2 #35 - Norris - 1.3 #62 - Castro - (-1.0) TOTAL 2013-15 1 - Lucroy - 49.7 2 - Conger - 45.7 3 - Castro - 22.2 4 - Norris - 3.0 Blocking Runs 2015 #2 - Norris - 2.6 #18 - Lucroy - 0.8 #29 - Conger - 0.4 #100 - Castro - (-1.8) 2014 #1 - Lucroy - 4.3 #5 - Castro - 2.4 #42 - Conger - 0.0 #82 - Norris - (-1.0) 2013 #2 - Lucroy - 3.2 #79 - Conger - (-0.6) #90 - Norris - (-1.3) #91 - Castro - (-1.3) TOTAL 2013-15 1 - Lucroy - 8.3 2 - Norris - 0.3 3 - Conger - (-0.2) 4 - Castro - (-0.7) Throwing Runs 2015 #2 - Norris - 2.4 #6 - Castro - 1.1 #77 - Lucroy - (-0.1) #102 - Conger - (-1.9) 2014 #86 - Conger - (-0.8) #88 - Castro - (-1.0) #89 - Norris - (-1.1) #92 - Lucroy - (-1.3) 2013 #27 - Conger - 0.1 #70 - Norris - 0.0 #98 - Lucroy - (-0.9) #94 - Castro - (-0.5) TOTAL 2013-15 1 - Norris - 1.3 2 - Castro - (-0.4) 3 - Lucroy - (-2.3) 4 - Conger - (-2.6) FRAA 2015 #4 - Norris - 16.0 #9 - Castro - 12.9 #28 - Lucroy - 2.7 #61 - Conger - (-1.5) 2014 #3 - Conger - 24.6 #6 - Lucroy - 19.1 #12 - Castro - 12.6 #94 - Norris - (-14.8) 2013 #1 - Lucroy - 30.8 #8 - Conger - 15.7 #40 - Norris - 1.0 #82 - Castro - (-4.8) TOTAL 2013-15 1 - Lucroy - 52.6 2 - Conger - 38.8 3 - Castro - 20.7 4 - Norris - 2.2
Framing is generally considered a learn-able skill. Castro, by this analysis appears to have picked up framing better in the last two years and has been the most runs saved in that time frame. Also, if you put too much weight into this information, on a per inning basis...Conger's defense even with the turd of last season..blows all the others out of the water.
