I think we all want to land big fish this year in free agency with the Durants, Conleys, and Horfords of the world but odds are against the Rockets to pull out a huge offseason this summer with free agent signings. Shoot I hope we get a top tier free agent but I'm not holding my breath. I think, ultimately, Morey and his team will reach out to the big targets to do their homework and to put Houston in their heads for future reference. Other than that, I think Morey will stand pat or sign a couple of talented role players and wait for the Summer of 2017. Why? 1. Caproom, Caproom, Caproom. Pretty much every team has significant caproom this summer with the cap increasing, with a good amount of teams having more of it than what the Rockets currently have without doing the typical Morey juggling maneuvers. But in 2017, Houston only have the following players under contract: James Harden $17,811,625 Corey Brewer $7,579,366 Trevor Ariza $7,420,912 Patrick Beverley $5,513,513 K.J. McDaniels $3,476,874 Clint Capela $2,334,528 Sam Dekker $1,794,600 Montrezl Harrell $1,090,000 That's a total of about $46.9 million but, wait, there's more: KJ, Clint and Sam's deal for 2017-2018 are team options. If Clint progresses this upcoming season and KJ and Sam turn out to be duds, we can shave another $5 million from the total to drop it down to $41.9 million. But lets say we only let Sam walk and not bring him back, keeping KJ. That still only earmarks $45.1 million among 7 players. Lets say the cap doesn't move an inch from this summer and holds at $92 million. That gives the Rockets approximately $47 million in caproom. But, according to speculative reports, the caproom should balloon to the $105 range, giving Houston almost $60 million to work with. This also doesn't factor in any variable where Morey deals Bev, Brewer, or Ariza, all only have 1 year left before they become free agents in 2018. A Bev at $5 million or an Ariza at $7 million would be a huge bargain for any team. So why does this matter, I'm sure other teams will have caproom in 2017 as well? Because 2. Having James Harden matters The turnovers are cringeworthy. The offense looks ugly at times. The defense is severely lacking. All being said, Harden is still an elite talent that hasn't made any enemies among his NBA fraternity and would still be in his prime, barring any severe catastrophe *knocks on wood* Of the teams in 2017 has both the requisite cap room ($40+ million) and an elite talent still under contract Chicago Bulls with Jimmy Butler Indiana with Paul George New Orleans with Anthony Davis (I didn't include the Clippers and Thunder of the league because they have elite players that are going to hit free agency next summer.) While all three (maybe sans Butler) are formidable comparisons to Harden in terms of talent, none have been as durable as Harden. Would signing with an Eastern Conference team like Chicago or Indiana provide an easier path to the Finals? Of course the other big factor here with Harden is that he's going to enter the last year of his underpaid contract but I doubt that would be a big issue since we can go over the cap to re-sign him and also because..... 3. Morey's wetdream Big 3 will be realized Look at the list of available free agents next summer: Unrestricted: Jeff Teague Kyle Korver Taj Gibson Derrick Rose Stephen Curry Andre Igoudala Shaun Livingston George Hill JJ Redick Jrue Holiday Serge Ibaka Russell Westbrook Player Option/ETO: Paul Millsap Danilo Gaillinari Blake Griffin Chris Paul Greg Monroe Kyle Lowry Gordon Hayward Restricted: Nikola Mirotic Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Giannis Antetokounmpo Victor Oladipo Nerlens Noel CJ McCollum Rudy Gobert This doesn't include LeBron James and Kevin Durant signing 2 year (2nd year player option) deal this summer to enter free agency again next summer. I'll let you pick which players would fit Harden and Dan Tony's offense. 4. It's par for the course Based on the trend seen over the past 3 coaching regimes in Houston, the first year for a new coach in Houston doesn't feature a massive/significant overhaul in players. JVG had a year to work with Francis/Mobley/Yao before the opportunity presented itself to trade for McGrady a year later. Adelman worked with McGrady/Battier/Yao for a season before the Artest trade came out of nowhere. McHale took over the the ragtag bunch of Scola/Martin/etc before Morey struck gold again a year later with the Harden trade. I think it's safe to say that Morey knows he can't expect big trades to fall in his lap in the future so next summer's free agency will not only be entering year 2 of Dan Tony's tenure but also the pseudo-scheduled time when Morey and the Rockets do, in fact, overhaul the Roster. So what, we stomach a season with only Harden and trash? We ride that mediocrity treadmill for another season? If this is the case then I don't know why the people asking these questions are surprised considering we've done it a couple of times before (riding the mediocrity treadmill) during Morey's tenure. Our owner's insistence on not missing the playoffs also adds to the potential that next year's Rockets, barring any miraculous acquisitions, will stay above water but not by much. I think, by now, our expectations for hitting it big in free agency come July 1st this year should be tempered considering the biggest and most needed catch has more logical options ahead of him than to sign with Houston this year.
Pretty much all the big names will stay put IMO except the Clippers big 3. I think the Clippers break up next summer with Black staying to rebuild. Deandre will be traded and CP3 will walk. We know Morey loves CP3.
So basically we are going to keep punting? I'm glad I'm in a good place of acceptance so I don't waste time this offseason like I have the past decade checking clutchfans daily for news. Burned out on punting for the next opportunity.
OP asks and answers the question, "So what, we stomach a season with only Harden and trash? We ride that mediocrity treadmill for another season?" I'll skip the answer if only to say that Morey can't afford to waste this season. I'm not indicating he'll get Kevin Durant; let all the other naysayers bash our chances---whatever. But Daryl Morey had best make this summer, not next, a good haul for our team. Waste another season of Harden's prime and then, what?, possibly fail to land the free agents mentioned and, what?, look at the chance of losing Harden in another season for nothing? Dobro might agree with the OP. I'm not on board, but if I had a functioning crystal ball I'd be living near a white-sand beach somewhere with Hannah Davis riding past on a talking horse.
We can't afford to stand idle and throw away this coming season in hopes that we'll lure a new "big 3". Many of those guys on that list will be locked up by their current team or be virtual locks to resign, so that is somewhat of an illusion. If we don't land any big fish then and/or overpay for good but not great players, we've essentially wasted James Harden's prime. So bottom line is, I'm not willing to pass on this years crop thinking the grass is greener on the other side. Let's find a couple of solid starters/rotation players at a minimum and build it up gradually instead of trying to swing for the fences every offseason.
I'm not saying I'm in support of waiting til next summer because I want to see a good Rockets team take court next season. But with the variables at play this summer on the free agency market, I don't think Morey is going to come out with the top tier guys. Is his job in jeopardy? I think Les will give him another season (hence, the post) to get the players. If he strikes out then all bets are off. I don't think Les is ready to push Morey out the door considering Dan Tony wasn't Morey's call to begin with.
It's whatever. I have no faith that Les/Morey/Dan Tony will put a title contender on the floor before the summer of 2018, when Harden will be a FA. And I'm ok with that. After Harden leaves to go join KD and Westbrook in LA, we can fire Dan Tony and start anew. And who knows, maybe Les will sell the team and whichever group of Chinese businessmen buy it could make things better.
That's not an ace, or ace in the hole. That's just a possibility, that assumes a crapton, about where the league is, where it's heading, what other players have done, what other teams have done, etc. This time last year the Rockets were just one player away. Things change drastically in a year. What you describe as an ace is just a scenario that could play out.
James Harden and a team of good to average role players is enough to make it into the playoffs with a 6-8 seed in the West. (2013 and 2016) Add another great, but maybe not elite talent, and that is probably enough to compete for a 4 seed in the West. (2014) James Harden with a really good talent and/or have good role players having career rejuvenating careers is a team that should be competing for a top seed and one of the best overall records. (2015) If we can add another elite talent(s) with Harden and keep role players that consistently play well, the sky is the limit.
This may in fact be the Rockets thinking if they are planning on recruiting Durant, knowing there is a 95% chance he will resign a 1+1 contract with OKC to become a supermax FA in 2017. Their recruiting pitch this summer will really be for next summer; perhaps both to Durant and Westbrook as a combo platter.
The triple chinned egotistical over-rated GM Maury is living on borrowed time unless he changes fast. He has failed on several aspects over the past 10 years during his regime. Right from mediocre drafting to hiring garbage coaches because coaching doesn't matter to trying to armchair coach a team and shove his philosophy with some of the worst brickers around to silly twatter PR claims to his 3 superstars or bust which prolly cost us Lowry to the bad on court chemistry to coddling Jim Harden and letting him do whatever he wants with no accountability etc etc. I have no hope for a Rockets championship ring as long as this greasy cheeseburger hangs around and continues to think he has solved basketball. He needs to take a step back, get on the treadmill for the first time in his life, shed some pounds and go on a diet which will help him think more clearly and he needs to realize he is not all that good and has made numerous mistakes and show some humility. Hire some real basketball know-hows and stop trying to put his fat finger print over every move
