[Hollinger] Rockets PER Projections

Lol, good news is that Hollinger often goes wrong.

 

Here's how he fared last year (assist to durvasa from last years thread: http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showthread.php?p=3938812&highlight=Hollinger#post3938812):

Yao

Hollinger Projects: 24.6
Actual: 22.7

McGrady

Hollinger Projects: 18.1
Actual: 16.3

Artest

Hollinger Projects: 17.8
Actual: 15.6

Battier

Hollinger Projects: 11.2
Actual: 10.7

Alston

Hollinger Projects: 11.7
Actual: 12.8

Scola

Hollinger Projects: 15.4
Actual: 17.0

Landry

Hollinger Projects: 20.2
Actual: 17.0

Barry

Hollinger Projects: 14.3
Actual: 9.2

Brooks

Hollinger Projects: 13.7
Actual 12.9

Hayes

Hollinger Projects: 12.3
Actual 7.8

 

I think I've said this the last few years, but I find his player commentary far more interesting than the PER projections. I left out his reviews of each player's 08/09 season (if you have Insider, you can read them on their ESPN player profile page).

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Point Guards

Aaron Brooks

Scouting report: A lightning-quick point guard who weighs 160 pounds soaking wet, Brooks can blaze a path to the basket going to either side but keeps defenses honest with his 3-point shooting. He's a good marksman off the catch or the dribble and has become increasingly confident firing when defenders go under the screen on pick-and-rolls. Though he excels at penetrating, he doesn't create many shots for teammates once he's there. He also needs a lot of work on his court vision and passing skills, especially if he's going to be a starter and not just a change-of-pace guy off the bench.

Brooks' size poses a liability for Houston's half-court defense, but he pressures the ball and competes. Plus, he's quite good against the profusion of other little fast guys (Tony Parker and Nate Robinson) who have piled into the league in recent years.

2009-10 outlook: Brooks comes into this season firmly in control of the starting point guard job, and with both Yao and Tracy McGrady sidelined and Ron Artest gone, Brooks will shoulder a lot more offensive responsibility. That should play into his shoot-first tendencies, and it wouldn't be a big surprise if he averaged in the high teens.

What I'm more interested in is whether he accompanies those buckets with a few more dimes. On a team with so few players who can create their own shot, it's incumbent upon their speedy point guard to create a few for them.
​

Kyle Lowry

Scouting report: A high-energy firecracker who can push the ball upcourt and pressure it on defense, Lowry increases the tempo of any game in which he's involved. This isn't always for the better, as he can get out of control on the drive and lose the rock. Moreover, since defenders play him for the drive, he often ends up driving into crowds.

Defensively, Lowry makes up for his lack of size with quickness and toughness. He's great at taking charges and pressures the ball, plus he rebounds very well for a small guard and came in fourth at his position in blocks per minute. He'd be an All-Defense player if he were a little taller and at 6-0 might become an elite defender anyway.

2009-10 outlook: Lowry again figures to be the primary backup to Aaron Brooks at the point, occasionally finishing games when the Rockets need a tougher defender at the point or are looking to play a small lineup.

The one exception to all this is if his long-range jumper starts finding the net, because that would change everything -- forcing defenders to crowd him and opening up countless driving lanes. We're a long way from that point and we may never get anywhere close to it, but he's young enough that it's an intriguing possibility to consider.
​

Wings

Trevor Ariza

Scouting report: Ariza is big for a wing player at 6-8 and that size makes him a strong defender at the small forward spot. He's a ball hawk who darts into passing lanes to create turnovers and transition chances, but his length also allows him to challenge shots and he has decent quickness. He's still learning the nuances of on-ball defense and can be beaten on cuts off the ball, but he's a quality defender who's getting better.

Offensively, Ariza is an outstanding finisher in transition and he's strong going to the basket in half-court settings as well. He takes good care of the ball and moves well without it to get himself layups and dunks, but he's not a great dribbler and doesn't make plays for himself off the bounce. Ariza isn't much of an outside shooter, but has become competent at spotting up in the corners, requiring opponents to at least pay him some attention out there.

2009-10 outlook: Ariza signed a five-year deal with Houston for the full midlevel exception (though technically he slotted into Houston's injury exception for Yao Ming) and will take over as the Rockets' starting small forward. He's 24 and still has multiple areas he can improve -- defending, shooting and attacking off the dribble -- so he offers a ton of promise for the coming season.

For the year ahead, however, it's much more realistic to project his regular-season 3-point percentage rather than his playoff mark. Those who saw him only in the postseason shouldn't presume he'll rain in shots from downtown, as he's a low 30s shooter for his career. He'll play 38 minutes a game instead of last year's 24, and that will help his per-game numbers considerably. His scoring average may not exceed the low teens, but he might challenge for the league lead in steals.
​

Shane Battier

Scouting report: Battier is one of the league's elite defenders, laying a step off shooters and then using his 6-9 length to bother their jump shots. He has an effective tactic of putting his hands right in opponents' eyes on their shot attempts instead of going for the block, and if he gets his mitts there before the release, he can force some wild bricks. He's also a strong team defender who takes charges and blocks shots from the weak side, ranking 11th among small forwards in blocks per minute.

That said, both observation and metrics back up the idea that Battier wasn't his usual suffocating self for much of last season. As mentioned above, his normally massive on-court vs. off-court differential was much more ordinary last season, even though a terrible defender (Von Wafer or Brent Barry) usually replaced him. Battier appeared much more vulnerable in isolations as well, and one wonders how much the foot compromised his quickness.

Offensively, he's basically become a spot-up shooter from the corners and rarely ventures outside that prescribed role. He should display more aggressiveness at that end, especially since the Rockets won't be packing their usual array of weapons this coming season. He can post up small guards with a baby hook but doesn't elevate well and has trouble finishing plays at the rim.

2009-10 outlook: Battier is likely to stay in the starting lineup, effectively playing shooting guard alongside newcomer Trevor Ariza, but Battier will need to pick up his output from last season in order to stay there. His defensive mojo is likely to return now that he's had an offseason to heal, and he'll likely shoot in the high 30s on 3s. But with the Rockets shorthanded, it would be a huge help if he'd go back to scoring in double figures. If he doesn't, they may need to contemplate a lineup change that puts him into a smaller role or perhaps trade him. Clearing the $7 million he's owed in 2010-11 would be big for their plans next summer.
​

Chase Budinger

2009-10 outlook: Budinger is big for a wing, a good shooter with range, and can really jump, but he didn't get into the first round because of concerns about his defense, intensity and lack of an in-between game. The hope is that he can stick as a poor man's Brent Barry who knocks down deep shots and gets the occasional finish in transition. Much like Jordan Hill, there's also the question of how much the dysfunctional mess at Arizona the past couple of seasons hindered his progress. Defensively, Budinger is probably too slow to check most twos, and at the three he'll need to improve his strength. Chances are he sees more time in the D-League than with the parent club.
​

Tracy McGrady

Scouting report: McGrady was a non-factor last season because of the knee, as well as troublesome back and shoulder issues that bothered him early in the season. He's regarded as having a low pain tolerance, and one wonders if the injuries have dampened his enthusiasm for the game in general.

He can still shoot from distance, he'll still be 6-8 when he gets back, and he's always been a great passer, so one shouldn't completely dismiss the idea of McGrady returning to a fairly prominent level. At this point, however, it's hard to develop a deeper scouting report than that, because we just don't know how much this season's McGrady will resemble the one from the past.

2009-10 outlook: McGrady reportedly made a strong recovery over the summer but will be out until at least November. Given his reputation for pain tolerance and playing with injuries, that date will probably be pushed several weeks further.

He may have a new home by the time he's healthy enough to play. McGrady has a giant expiring contract worth $23 million and it's one that may be picked up by insurance, making it a powerful chip at the trade deadline. If Houston can parlay a trade into a cap position that puts them under the luxury tax, the Rockets won't worry themselves with missing out on the tail end of McGrady's season -- especially since he'll be a free agent when it ends anyway.

Of course, that also raises the stakes for McGrady. If he comes back and plays well, he could easily earn himself another contract for good money. If not, one wonders if he'll slink off into retirement.
​

Jermaine Taylor

2009-10 outlook: An athletic scorer who improved strongly in each of his four college seasons, Taylor is a bit undersized for the wings as a pro and will have to curb a tendency to dominate the ball. He's a good athlete who can shoot so he could be a find in the mold of Von Wafer, but to get there he needs to show he can defend and share the rock. As one of four rookies vying for minutes in an already-deep rotation, he's likely to see a few stints with the Rockets' club-operated D-League affiliate in Rio Grande Valley.
​

Bigs



David Andersen

2009-10 outlook: If you're looking for the Thunder from Down Under, move on. Andersen is an Australian big man with a sweet midrange jumper, but he has a reputation for soft play around the basket and prefers hanging out on the perimeter. He signed a three-year, $7.5 million deal to join the Rockets after Houston purchased his rights from Atlanta, raising the total cost near $10 million. The third year isn't guaranteed, but it's still an interesting move for a player who projects to be a major defensive liability.

Andersen's translated stats from his last season in Europe are 16 points and 9.3 boards per 40 minutes, 44.7 percent shooting, and a 12.86 PER. That's passable if he defends, plus he's had past seasons with better numbers. But he's really a power forward and will be stretched to the max in his likely role as a backup center for the Yao-less Rockets this year.
​

Brian Cook

Scouting report: Cook has a compact line-drive release that makes him a real weapon on pick-and-pop plays. He hasn't been shy about letting it go and redoubled his efforts during his garbage time appearances last season.

Cook appeared heavy last season and was a poor defensive player even at his regular weight. The extra luggage isn't doing him any favors and helps explain why his once-respectable rebound rate has deteriorated so much when he should be in his prime.

2009-10 outlook: Cook has an expiring deal worth $3.5 million, and with 15 players under contract with the Rockets already, it's possible they'll cut him in training camp. But if he gets in shape, he can have an impact with his shooting ability. The Rockets have a giant opening at center this year and it may be Cook's last chance to resurrect his faltering career.
​

Joey Dorsey

Scouting report: A 6-8 post player with a powerful build and strong defensive skills, Dorsey is a lunch-pail guy who can guard the post, block shots and rebound. What he can't do is score ... even in the D-League he averaged single digits and produced nearly as many turnovers as baskets. He also shot 38.9 percent from the line. Yikes.

2009-10 outlook: Dorsey has a guaranteed deal for this season, and we can also guarantee that he'll be spending more time along the Rio Grande trying to discover how to score. He was unusually old for a rookie, turning 26 in December, so time isn't on his side. If things don't work out this year, the journey will probably continue overseas.
​

Chuck Hayes

Scouting report: Although Hayes is significantly undersized for a center at 6-6, he's one of the best defensive players in the league. He uses his size as an advantage in post defense, getting under opponents and rooting them out into unfavorable spots on the floor. Once there, he's virtually impossible to back down because of his strength and toughness.

Hayes is mobile and competes, making him an excellent pick-and-roll defender too. Plus, he takes tons of charges (19 in just 858 minutes last season). Despite his small stature, he's an aggressive rebounder who puts up strong rebound rates for a center.

Unfortunately, he's abysmal on offense. Hayes can't jump and has trouble elevating to finish shots at the rim even when he seems to be wide open for a layup. Opponents have learned to foul him in those situations, as his double-clutching free-throw stroke threatens patrons behind the basket more than the opponent. Hayes' one positive attribute is that he's a good and willing passer. Of course, you'd be too if you shot like this.

2009-10 outlook: Hayes may see more minutes with Yao Ming out for the season, but let's not get crazy here. It's hard to imagine Hayes getting extended run when he scores a basket once every lunar eclipse. His post defense makes him a solid matchup play against certain opponents, especially since Houston lacks other quality interior defenders, but his offensive inadequacy likely will keep him off the court on many nights.
​

Carl Landry

Scouting report: Landry is listed at 6-9 and might be smaller, but he has a varied offensive arsenal and a quick first step. He can shoot out to 18 feet or take opposing big men off the dribble, and he's adept at moving without the ball or catching near the basket to take advantage of gimmes from teammates. He's a good foul shooter, too, and uses his quickness to constantly get to the line by beating opposing big men off the bounce.

Landry has a somewhat slender frame and is short for a frontcourt player, but he defends with intensity and toughness and has the quickness to check smaller players. The Rockets managed his matchups carefully last season, but they should probably loosen the leash since he rarely seemed overmatched. Long, post-up 5s were an exception, however, as they can play right over the top of him.

2009-10 outlook: Yao Ming's injury is a huge opportunity for Landry, as he has a chance to start as an undersized center and show that his per-minute numbers translate to more extended stretches of playing time. It's a challenge, as power forward is his more natural position, but he's definitely a potential breakout player for this season.

Landry is going to be stretched defensively and may spend big chunks of time in foul trouble, so he may not average more than 30 minutes a game. But even in that playing time, his numbers will likely raise eyebrows. With Yao sidelined and more shots to go around, I wouldn't be surprised to see Landry average 16 points a game with a shooting percentage in the low 50s. Although he remains virtually unknown, he's probably the best offensive player the Rockets have left.
​

Pops Mensah-Bonsu

Scouting report: An undersized center at 6-foot-9, 235 pounds, Mensah-Bonsu is far more engaged offensively than most reserve big men. He took nearly all of his attempts in the basket area but he moves well without the ball and aggressively seeks out any chance to put up a shot. This is a double-edged sword, however, as his offensive game is not terribly refined. He's a weak ball handler and shooter, and despite his phenomenal leaping ability he's middling at best as a finisher around the basket.

Defensively, he's a plus athlete who can rebound like crazy, but his lack of size is a detriment against post-up centers and he doesn't block as many shots as one might think given his hops.

2009-10 outlook: Mensah-Bonsu signed a one-year offer sheet with Houston and with the Rockets' need for a defensive center to replace Dikembe Mutombo he should have the inside track on the final roster spot. His shooting percentage probably will recover from last year's depths, but his rebound rate is unlikely to stay at such stratospheric levels. In the final analysis, he's an end-of-rotation big man who can likely give Houston some useful minutes as they try to cobble together a Yao Ming-less frontcourt. He exacerbates an existing weakness, however, by adding yet one more undersized big to the Rockets' growing collection.
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Luis Scola

Scouting report: Scola has a nifty post game from the left block despite a lack of elevation. He'll catch defenders off balance and shoot a short hook shot going to his right, often angling far to his right as he shoots and sometimes scooping it under a defender's arm. He has a little counter move back to his left if defenders overplay it, but he's usually turning right.

Scola also has a midrange set shot he likes to shoot from the top of the key, and he uses his physicality to earn a lot of second shots. He doesn't elevate well and tends to need head fakes and other little tricks to get his shot off on deep catches, but he's clever and fairly strong.

Defensively, Scola has trouble checking quick fours on the perimeter and, as noted above, has a bad habit of trying to reach around and steal post entries. He has a surprising amount of trouble defending against straight post-ups, too, because he can't get off the floor to challenge the shot. But he's a good team defender who's tough, rebounds, takes charges and defends the pick-and-roll well.

2009-10 outlook: Scola will become one of Houston's go-to guys at the offensive end and could end up with a career year, which would be a pleasant send-off into restricted free agency for him. He's grossly underpaid at $3 million a year and he turns 30 in April, so this is his one big shot to get a big payday.

First he has to deliver on the court though. He's likely to up his minutes to around 34 a game, and if so he'll probably average a double-double. In fact his scoring total should creep up to about 15 a game given a likely increase in shots. That's not All-Star material, perhaps, but it should reward him at the end of the season.
​

 

I think Hollinger will be wrong about Chase.

 

I thought this was interesting, as I probably wouldn't have penciled him in as the Rockets "best offensive player". Surely Scola and Brooks are ahead of him? I guess time will tell, I would love to see Landry turn into a scorer. I felt like he stalled out a lot last year, particularly after he returned from the incident.

 

i agree with durvasa, hollinger's scouting reports are spot on and it's hard for me to even find one little passage where i don't agree with him. this is the best analysis you will find anywhere. hollinger is supposed to be espn's stats geek but just like daryl morey he knows his basketball stuff, too.

 

Honestly, I think Landry could have had much better numbers last year if not for substitution patterns.

I noticed many games where he would come in during the first half and shoot lights out, get some rebounds, and then sit for a long time. When he came back in he would seem to have lost his rhythm and then would get pulled quickly. I have a feeling that more consistent minutes will help greatly.

Scola is the better offensive player in the post but Landry has so many more tools that he has the potential to do really well. He has a great jump shot, is quick for his size, good hops, and can put the ball on the floor. Combine all of that and points should come easier than they have over the past few seasons. Earlier in his career I thought it was his knee, but last year I think it was some kind of mental thing relating to game flow.

 

Carl Landry

Scouting report: Landry is listed at 6-9 and might be smaller, but he has a varied offensive arsenal and a quick first step. He can shoot out to 18 feet or take opposing big men off the dribble, and he's adept at moving without the ball or catching near the basket to take advantage of gimmes from teammates. He's a good foul shooter, too, and uses his quickness to constantly get to the line by beating opposing big men off the bounce.

Landry has a somewhat slender frame and is short for a frontcourt player, but he defends with intensity and toughness and has the quickness to check smaller players. The Rockets managed his matchups carefully last season, but they should probably loosen the leash since he rarely seemed overmatched. Long, post-up 5s were an exception, however, as they can play right over the top of him.

2009-10 outlook: Yao Ming's injury is a huge opportunity for Landry, as he has a chance to start as an undersized center and show that his per-minute numbers translate to more extended stretches of playing time. It's a challenge, as power forward is his more natural position, but he's definitely a potential breakout player for this season.

Landry is going to be stretched defensively and may spend big chunks of time in foul trouble, so he may not average more than 30 minutes a game. But even in that playing time, his numbers will likely raise eyebrows. With Yao sidelined and more shots to go around, I wouldn't be surprised to see Landry average 16 points a game with a shooting percentage in the low 50s. Although he remains virtually unknown, he's probably the best offensive player the Rockets have left.
​

You know.....

....I've always had a little bit different take on what type of player Carl Landry is and probably should develop into at this level.

Want to hear about it?

Carl Landry is probably 6'8'' if he's got on an extra pair of socks. He's more comfortable playing close to the basket, but he's a bit undersized to play extended minutes at the four, no matter what the scheme is.

I know the Phoenix Suns made some noise with a smallish frontcourt for the past few years, but make no mistake about it—Steve Nash made that work. Mike D'Antoni's doing the same things, playing-style-wise, in New York (and some of those guys are putting up numbers), but it takes more than style to win.

Carl Landry, for me, has the physical tools to become more of a small forward than a power forward for the Rockets, particularly if the plan is to have Yao Ming back and healthy next season. Despite Mr. Hollinger's analysis, Landry is below average at best as an interior defender, either on the ball or in weak-side help. He can be spectacular at times. But he's inconsistent, and that's why he hasn't been able to beat out Luis Scola for minutes at the 4-spot.

But Landry's athleticism and willingness to slash and finish inside are what intrigues me. Shooting guards and small forwards are often interchangeable in the NBA. But Landry is one of those "tweener" players—part-small forward, part-power forward.

I feel that Landry's athleticism is better used as small forward, in that he'd fare a bit better on the perimeter, where he may be able to keep players in front of him a bit more often than he can keep bigger players from scoring inside against him.

Offensively, Landry is a classic small forward. He's better facing the basket than he is with his back to it. He can shoot the ball out to 18-feet consistently. He slashes and finishes at the rim regularly. He's active, competitive and fearless. A plus in Rick Adelman's offense is that he doesn't have to do a lot of ball handling to be an effective scorer.

I've said myself that if there was any player in the league that I thought Landry could eventually emulate, it would be Linus Kleiza in Denver. Kleiza is about the same size and build as Landry. He can shoot the ball well from the perimeter, and put the ball on the floor and get to the basket in a scramble situation (where defenses are rotating to him recklessly). he also is physical and rebounds well.

There's a poll going about who's going to be the biggest bust or disappointment as a Rocket this season. Waste of time to try to figure that out, in my opinion. Some of these guys have jobs that are too big for them right now, and there's no way to know who will answer the bell once the season's underway.

Adelman talked about opportunity for some guys with Yao and McGrady out of the picture. I wouldn't bet on whether or not Carl Landry can make a significant leap forward this season.....

...but I'd like to see it. As a small forward.

 

hey durvasa post von wafers scouting report

 

I think this is a huge misconception about stat geeks. Ironically, they are the ones who film study the most out of all the "experts". Ex-players don't study tapes. Neither do journalists like Screaming A. Smith or Dick Justice. OTOH, stat geeks truly love the game on a personal level, or they wouldn't be devoting their life to study the game in the first place.

Landry's UNGODLY efficient. It's pretty absurd to say the least. He may not be the best offensive player on the Rockets in terms of getting his own shot, but he's definitely the best at finding the right spot where he can knock down a high % shot.

This year Landry will show whether he's just a super-role player or an be a featured player on offense.

 

Hollinger's scouting reports make complete sense from an analysis standpoint. The part I cannot stomach is the fact that even bad teams have guys with high PER's just by virtue of there being, you know, 48 minutes of ball to go around, so someone's gotta thrive on each team even if they are just playing me-ball like Zach Randolph (and I don't think we have anyone like that on this who is more willing to get his own stats over doing what's best for the team).

The absence of Yao and T-Mac leaves a huge gaping hole statistically, and you have to think that either one guy's PER will jump significantly or a bunch of guys will all improve upon their PER's moderately just by default. I understand that it's efficiency and not total stats, but a part of me is convinced that Yao actually held up Adelman's motion offense at least half as much as he helped the team out by being a source of many easy buckets. It's like a chemical reaction--you give up some activation energy by losing Yao, but there's no telling how much lower the subsequent energy state will be. We have a good mix of unselfish guys, and if they really buy into the system then I can definitely see something like Brooks upping his PER into the 18-19's or Battier going back to the 14-15 range. Or Ariza or Lowry piercing 20. Seriously.

 

Great read! Kudos to Sam Fisher and Durvasa.

 

Pleased to meet you, Spacemoth.

The part of you that's convinced that Yao Ming held up parts of Rick Adelman's motion offense.....

.....that's the devil. Or his little brother. The both of them sound alike to me.

I understand what you mean. Yao isn't the type of athlete that Amare Stoudemire or Dwight Howard is. In relation to the majority of big men he's compared to, Yao seems slower of foot than Darth Vader.

Yao Ming is 7'6" and weighs 300 pounds. The fact that he's light years better than anybody in the league who's ever been close to that size is a testament to how much of a freak of nature in his own right Yao is.

Yao, offensively, is comparable to Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, to me, Spacemoth. Kareem dominated with the finesse of his game, like Yao does. Even into the 1980's and into his mid to late 30's in age, Kareem was ridiculously efficient. Kareem anchored the Showtime Lakers half-court offense, but he wasn't the only way the Lakers scored.

Yao, offensively, is the Rocket's half-court anchor. Yao is efficient, versatile, intelligent and unselfish. I feel that Yao's biggest drawback is that, from time to time, he tries to play the way a man much smaller plays: with speed and quickness, rather than size and power. Finesse tends to do that, but the only advantage Yao has against anybody is his size.

For all the physical gifts Dwight Howard has, Yao routinely has his way with him, for instance.

Yao is special. And any coach would adjust the way they play the game with him on your team. You'd be a coaching fool (and an unemployed coaching fool) if you did anything remotely like NOT building your offense (especially in the half-court) around Yao.

But here, again, is the problem with a special player—how do you get the most out of what he can do for your team without hamstringing the rest of the club?

Something that I believe Rick Adelman knows, and knows how to implement.

You balance the team out. You get greyhounds to run and pitbulls in the trenches. You get bombers from the outside and hammers on the inside.

You do your best to cover as much of the court on both sides of the ball as you can, Spacemoth.

The title team of '95 for the Rockets emulates this for me easily. Those guys could win a dogfight or a track meet. They could run you out of the gym or pound you underneath it. They could grind it out or blow you out. By the time they were sweeping Orlando out of the Finals, they showed that, from baseline to baseline, they had no weaknesses, Spacemoth.....

(Well, they did have ONE weakness—they were near the bottom of the league that year in offensive rebounding, meaning that they had to make the shots that they DID get in the half court at a high rate, and get as many transition and fast-break baskets as they could, but nobody's perfect)......

I know better than to think, even for a second, that Yao kept Rick Adelman from doing anything other than winning, Spacemoth.

You'll see it this season, too. This season will get the rest of the Rockets up to speed on how well they can play without having to rely so heavily on Yao Ming (or Tracy McGrady, for that matter).

And that's what makes a team championship team, to me, Spacemoth. Balance. Versatility.

AND Yao.

 

Thanks, Sam. His predictions sucked. They varied by 10-36.5% from actual PER.

 

these are all bogus speculation to me, how can you rank players projections, you have to factor in so much from the off season and the fact that it's a brand new season

 

I'm sorry if I rubbed you the wrong way, but notice that I said Yao's obstruction of our ideal offense was at least "half as much" as his utility to it, implying that I do realize he was a net asset and that we will suffer as a consequence of not having him on our team this year.

My only contention is that there stands logically to be a significant statistical improvement from at least a couple of our players by having the paint open for penetration and a new center who is more apt to running with this team. Hollinger's statistical analysis ignores this truth and just assumes each player will improve or decline by his own natural progression as an athlete. That's the drawback to the method--Hollinger cannot tell his program that a certain player's teammates have shifted significantly, he can only plug in the projected MPG he guesses that a team's players will play. That's where I think there's room for his analysis to be way off this year. And it has nothing to do with Yao hurting us and everything to do with the new style we'll be forced to implement as a result of his absence.

 

Hollinger is dead on with this one... think about it... he has averaged nearly as many points as Scola in less time... PLUS when Landry closed out games we were nearly unbeatable... he just takes his game to a level others can't play at. He's clutch.

 

No, actually, I'm the one who owes you the apology, Spacemoth....

.....if I gave you the impression that I thought you were wrong or missing the point.

My point about Mr. Hollinger's stats are about the way the Rockets are currently constituted, and aren't looking at the big picture of the Rockets intentions....

...and those intentions are to be championship-caliber when Yao gets back.

There's this thinking out there in the ether that there's only one way to win ball games. I just don't understand that logic, because I'm thinking TEAM. You need a lot of different people who are good at a lot of different things in order to be a good team. And the better guys can become as ballplayers, the more likely it is that you team gets a chance to play for a title.

Hollinger's stats can't measure how good a TEAM is until it's out on the floor competing. They aren't supposed to.

The goal of the team is to be ready to go when Yao gets back. The numbers won't tell the story at all this season.

But I'll be watching it all the same.....

....and just between us, friend.....hope we can get along around here......