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2009 MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference (Webcasts)

Discussion in 'NBA Dish' started by durvasa, May 5, 2009.

  1. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member

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    Panel Discussion with Morey, Cuban, Hollinger, and other Analaysts

    I should have made the thread title "Panel Discussion with Morey, Cuban, Hollinger, and other Analaysts", because I think there will be a lot of people here interested in this talk. Maybe the original thread title didn't convey that ...

    Here's the hour-long video of the panel discussion on basketball analytics from the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference held earlier in the year in Boston. Marc Stein moderates:

    http://sloansportsconference.com/2009/webcasts/basketball-analytics/

    <hr>

    The webcasts for various panel discussions from Daryl Morey's Sports Analytics Conference earlier in the year is now online.

    http://sloansportsconference.com/2009/webcasts/

    "Evolution of the Fan Experience" (including Bill Simmons, Jeff Van Gundy, and Daryl Morey on the panel) and "Basketball Analytics" would be of particular interest here, I think.
     
    #1 durvasa, May 5, 2009
    Last edited: May 6, 2009
    1 person likes this.
  2. Hayesfan

    Hayesfan Contributing Member

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    NICE!

    Thanks D, I am going to check these out right now. Almost as good as being there!
     
  3. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member

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    bump.

    I should have made the thread title "Panel Discussion with Morey, Cuban, Hollinger, and other Analaysts", because I think there will be a lot of people here interested in this talk. Maybe the original thread title didn't convey that ...

    Here's the hour-long video of the panel discussion on basketball analytics from the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference held earlier in the year in Boston. Marc Stein moderates:

    http://sloansportsconference.com/20...ball-analytics/
     
  4. kaleidosky

    kaleidosky Your Tweety Bird dance just cost us a run

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    sounds cool--will take a look in the evening when there are less ppl around ;)
     
  5. natrix964909

    natrix964909 Member

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    Finally! I have been looking for this for a couple months. Huge hat tip.
     
  6. BigBigRed

    BigBigRed Member

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    Very nice; thanks!
     
  7. ghost

    ghost Member

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    Thanks for the post. I too have been waiting quite a while to see these video's online. The conference is really good and I enjoyed attending again this year.
     
  8. KellyDwyer

    KellyDwyer Contributing Member

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    I really wish the audience Q+A included the question givers identifying themselves.

    Well worth everyone's time. There aren't a lot of new answers, here, but there is quite a lot to chew on.
     
  9. wnes

    wnes Contributing Member

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    Nothing really matters if the league deliberately turns blind eye on officiating problems.
     
  10. KellyDwyer

    KellyDwyer Contributing Member

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    What, exactly, should they be doing differently?

    Have you ever refereed a game? It's unceasingly tough.
     
  11. MisterPink

    MisterPink Member

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    It's nice to know that we've got the smartest guy up there making our personnel decisions. I really feel like this franchise has really lucked out with Morey.
     
  12. Dr of Dunk

    Dr of Dunk Clutch Crew

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    How the heck did I miss this thread? Thanks.
     
  13. PointForward

    PointForward Member

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    "..Jeff, do you agree that it's all about entertainment, and would you be 500 over 30 years?"


    "well, you fired me, so I didn't get 30 years!" :D

    priceless! genius! absolute entertainment.. I freaking love JVG.. :D

    and did I mention moReyball is awesome? we couldn't have a better GM than him, and I hope he stays our GM until he's 90 years old..
     
  14. Dr of Dunk

    Dr of Dunk Clutch Crew

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    I was jotting down notes on the first video at around the 8 minute mark, so I thought I'd post them. The notes are kind of scatterbrained and the times may be slightly off, but this was a great video - one of the more interesting I've seen posted on the forum this year. It starts out really dry, but then gets interesting. Everyone should give it a watch.

    -----------------------------------------------

    Dean oliver makes comment about 10-11 people working for morey around 8 minute mark (maybe a bit after) - people are jealous. Someone mentions them being interns. lol.

    Morey says "you gave me your referee ratings" to cuban around the 10:20

    Cuban calls "wages of wins" flat out dumb around 13:15 mark

    Cuban gives props to Popovich in that he knows what he wants to get out of his plays/players and his actions bear it out based on the data wheras with other coaches, that isn't true.

    Morey says around that coaches in basketball are more receptive because the data being collected seems to bear out what they've been doing has been right more often than not, whereas in baseball it was the opposite

    Hollinger starts commenting on defense being the holy grail of this analytics process and how we haven't figured out how to measure it around 22:50 (good discusson starts here about team rebounds and they mock it)

    Cuban talks about his comments on his blog about the Harris/Kidd trade... around 31:10 Hollinger gets in... and states how it was a missed opportunity to let a guy like Devin Harris go... at 32:00, Cuban says "let's go at it" to Hollinger encouraging debate... his defense here is interesting.

    Around 35:00, Morey defends Cuban's reasoning for that trade and brings up the #8 for Shane Battier trade saying people thought that was a bad trade as well.

    Around 36:18 he continues about the trade saying Gay could be a great player and he's on the way to doing that possibly, JVG may say he has no chance to ever do that, he's not a winner, "he's got labels". Cuban and everyone else cracks up at this point. Morey says you're always trying to adjust your probability of winning over some period of time. "You have to take risks, if you don't take risks as a team, I think you're really losing". There are 30 teams and only 1 wins, you have to gamble sometimes and you'll end up looking bad sometimes.

    Around the 38:08 mark, they start discussing the Al Jefferson/KG deal. Cuban is stil a bit peeved and lets the Mike Zarren, the Celtics GM, know. Cuban says that that deal basically came down to McHale and Ainge being roommates (laughter ensues) because they thought they had that deal locked up. Zarren asks "what offer did McHale get that was better than ours?!" Cuban goes on to say that GS thought they had a deal set as well. You can tell he's still ticked because he adds "at the end of the day, relationships still matter in the NBA" as if to say "you'll get yours eventually" and starts laughing. Zarren keeps asking what deal was better out there?

    "Somebody's gotta tell me..." He's very defensive.
    Around 40:30, Zarren says they have the smallest front office in the league - they just added a 6th person.

    Around 42:00-43:00, they talk about how much players (and agents) request their numbers and Oliver says not many - they're pretty much listening to coaches for feedback. Morey asks Zarren "doesn't Scalabrine check his +/- every game?" They laugh. (I guess he asks for it a lot... lol). "How many of your guys ask you for it, Daryl"? Morey responds with "Good question." Zarren says, "Well he's got one who's the best player in the whole league, right?" Everybody laughs. Morey smiles and says, "Definitely, definitely. Let's talk more about that." (Wth? Is this a hint at Battier being shopped? Is the "best player in the league" reference to Shane and how Morey may have pumped him up for a trade? Hmm...) Everybody laughs at Morey's comment.

    Around the 45:55 mark, Morey makes reference to Carl Landry's agent putting a book together on Landry and earning his money as an agent.

    Around 48:00, Morey comments on players who think "i gotta do x [this season] just to get paid" as being players he doesn't want. He even tells agents or coaches in college (and he said the d-league is a better example) to tell their clients to not do that in order to stand out. He'd rather them be players who excel at helping their team do better than ones looking to stand out. If the player thinks that's how he's going to stand out to NBA teams, he's 100% wrong. "If we watch him helping his team win, that's what's going to make an impact".

    Around 50:00, Cuban says hiring coaches is the most difficult job there is - period. It's far easier to pick players. He said he looked at data on players who changed coaches over the years and which coach had the most players who improved the most after that change of scenery. At the top of the list was Rick Carlisle.

    At 51:58, Oliver (I believe) says one of the conversations he'd love to have with, say a JVG, would be how do these coaches decide who among their assistants can make the jump to coaching. You've got to kind of separate the personal from the process. Cuban goes on to add that it's an incestuous business, and this is among the worst things going on in the sport - nepotism without the relation. It's scary how bad it is. It really has a negative impact on the sport when coaches always just work with "their guys". It makes a lot of very good coaches very meek because they keep hooking up with these coaches because they know they'll keep getting paid. Morey and Cuban agree that they try to bring data into everything, but when it comes to hiring coaches, it should probably be limited or have very little influence in the decision. When asked, Morey added "going for a 2-for-1" as being an example where data is most helpful.

    At 53:55 - Cuban goes off on the NBA saying how stupid "we" are that we're not allowed to evaluate potential draftees by running them in a 5-on-5 - they're limited to 3-on-3's and the time they can spend with the players is limited. "How stupid is that?" says Cuban. "As a company, as an industry, we have so many self-inflicted wounds that make our jobs more difficult, that hopefully our next CBA will fix, but I'm not getting my hopes up." You can tell he's ticked.

    At 54:40 someone asks how much input coaches have in personnel decisions. Cuban says everybody's in on it - it's not unilateral. Zarren adds you can't have a divide between coaches and people making player decisions - not a smart thing to do. If you're going to be getting a player that won't be used or put in a position to help the team succeed, it's probably not worth getting that player. Morey adds that "with hiring the head coach it's a partnership - it doesn't matter who's reporting to whom, that's gotta be a tight partnership when being decided", but on the player front, you don't consult because it could be a real problem if they were to say "no" and you do it anyway. With players, "we work with them after to explain our reasoning and why we think it's a good move... we don't consult them before". (Wow!) The panel goes on to say this can vary in terms of involvement especially since coaches can be so hot and cold on a player. One day he's a hero, the next day he's a zero (Cuban's words). One reason not to tell them about player moves is because if you run things by them, it may pump their hopes up and then when the deal doesn't go through, it affects the psyche and brings them down. Cuban continues, that you kind of learn at what point in the dealings you want to introduce the prospective deal to the coach because they have other things to do and you don't want it to be a distraction.

    At 58:10'ish, a discussion about how involved the owner is in decisions begins. Mark Cuban basically says "they do what I want... it's my money". Morey basically agrees. Everyone laughs. Zarren says teams are usually most profitable when they're winning. Cuban disagrees. He says it's the exact opposite - team are most profitable when they're rebuilding. There are exceptions - for example, teams are going to be profitable no matter what in the 3 biggest markets. Once you get past that, your best bet is to be losing and rebuilding all the time because you can put your payroll at the league minimum and you'll make money (Hello, Donald Sterling.). The marginal value of winning is about $500,000 a game. Around 60:50 Morey comments on someone asking the panel how players' history affects them being acquired (duh). He goes onto say that as an organization, the Rockets have been lucky, Ron's been.... {laughter}... Ron's been great {he laughs more}. Ron's been great.... hey everyone deserves a second chance... or third... {more

    laughter from the entire auditorium}. Cuban's practically dying at this point. Morey continues "he's been great, all the players love him". Cuban says it's more about probabilities again. The probability you get to where you want to go with the player increases, but the probability you may implode if you get the player increases as well, and you sometimes just have to go for it. Cuban adds the good thing is you get a do-over every year for the most part. Every year people remember the previous year, but for the most part have forgotten two years ago, so you can take a chance. (He must not visit ClutchFans enough... we're still trying to re-do a trade to have Hakeem, Clyde, and Jordan on the same team. lol!)

    Around 63:50 Zarren says the good thing about working with Danny is that he's open to any suggestion. He'll listen to anything and evaluate it, but won't just accept it because someone said so.
     
  15. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member

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    Cool, thanks for the notes. I thought there was a lot of interesting stuff in there. There were a couple points where the video skipped ahead. I read somewhere else that Cuban and Hollinger got into a sort of heated debate over the Harris-Kidd trade, but it looks like much of that might have been cut out.
     
  16. Dr of Dunk

    Dr of Dunk Clutch Crew

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    There were a couple of things mentioned in there that I want to try to do and one thing that Morey mentioned someone mentioned to him and I asked myself, "you've got to be kidding - how could you not track or consider that?!" :D

    Morey's a big goof, but a bright one. It was kind of scary how much he and Cuban agreed with each other during that. The other couple of things that surprised me were that the Celtics had the smallest front office and that everyone was jealous that Morey had an army of 10 or 11 people working for him. Of course someone mentioned they were probably interns. lol.

    I'll probably watch the 2nd video in a day or two. Should be entertaining. I had no idea this first one was going to be over an hour.
     
  17. BigSherv

    BigSherv Contributing Member

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    One of my best friends is the chair for this.

     
  18. ghost

    ghost Member

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    He did a good job. At the post conference happy hour, I told him he if he ever wanted to get into this arena with his MBA, he would have plenty of great contacts.
     

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