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Do we really have talent? Our starting 5 ranked

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Briand2714, Apr 20, 2016.

  1. Briand2714

    Briand2714 Member

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    People keep saying we have talent, but do we?

    There are many ways to rank players, but here I will use PER, RPM and WS/48 as measuring sticks to see how much talent we really have. Keep in mind these are rankings in their respective position, not overall.

    PER (League Average 15.0)

    C - Dwight Howard 18.99 - 17th
    PF - D-Mo 11.34 - 62nd
    SF - Trevor Ariza 12.97 - 29th
    SG - James Harden 25.36 - 1st
    PG - Patrick Beverley 13.07 - 50th


    RPM (League Average around 0)

    C - Dwight Howard 0.37 - 36th
    PF - D-Mo -1.13 - 66th
    SF - Trevor Ariza 0.88 - 18th
    SG - James Harden 4.53 - 1st
    PG - Patrick Beverley 2.20 - 9th


    WS/48 (League Average around .100)

    C - Dwight Howard .138 - 39th
    PF - D-Mo .026 - 96th
    SF - Trevor Ariza .090 - 36th
    SG - James Harden .204 - 1st
    PG - Patrick Beverley .102 - 26th


    PER is a rating of a player's per-minute productivity.

    RPM tells you how much better a team played on offense and defense when a given player was on the floor.

    WS/48 is Win Shares per 48 minutes; an estimate of the number of wins contributed by the player per 48 minutes.


    It seems like our PF is definitely below average.

    Our C is slight above average, and not even close to the 'elite' level that many people expect from Dwight.

    Our SF and PG is above or below average depending on the stat, but I would say they are about average overall.

    Our SG is... well, no.1 in every category at his position.


    So, 1 really good SG, 1 slightly above average C, 2 average SF and PG, and 1 way below average PF. This is our starting 5.

    That's a talented team? I'm sorry maybe it's just me, but this is not the picture I have in mind when I think of a really talented group of players.

    Not to mention that our bench production ranks almost at rock bottom, and our current head coach is possibly the worst and dumbest one we've ever had in years.

    I don't care what the media says. This is not a championship contender material, even on paper. One could say they are underperforming a little bit; maybe they should've won 48 instead of 41 during the regular season. But if you think we could complete with the teams like GSW, SAS, OKC, CLE and LAC for the championship with our current existing players and coaching staff (especially considering Dwight's significant decline), you're badly mistaken.
     
  2. smoothie

    smoothie Jabari Jungle

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    how does this compare to the same stats for the starters of the warriors and spurs?
     
  3. J Sizzle

    J Sizzle Member

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    It's pretty obvious our talent is not good overall. Nearly everybody on the roster is expendable.
     
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  4. Blurr#7

    Blurr#7 Contributing Member

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    Dem TOs do..he numba one thurr to.
     
  5. Briand2714

    Briand2714 Member

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    Much much better.

    I mean, you don't need all these stats to prove that we lack talent. Just look at how many all-stars a typical elite team has. At least 2.
     
  6. dragonz

    dragonz Member

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    Just like every other year in the past 2 decades.
     
  7. abaker28

    abaker28 Member

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    Pfftt! Analytics again!

    Just wonder though how they would've ranked had we had a decent coach running a decent system?

    And regarding these stats, where did they rank last season? I'm sure they would've been much higher compared to this season.

    Great stats by the way, but no real surprise.
     
  8. DrNuegebauer

    DrNuegebauer Member

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    Numbers for this season, followed by last season (I'm assuming that the league average is still the same? I haven't bothered ranking them either, but that wouldn't be hard to do)

    PER (League Average 15.0)

    C - Dwight Howard 18.99 / 19.2
    PF - D-Mo 11.34 / 14.4
    SF - Trevor Ariza 12.97 /12.7
    SG - James Harden 25.36 / 26.7
    PG - Patrick Beverley 13.07 / 11.3


    WS/48 (League Average around .100)

    C - Dwight Howard .138 / .140
    PF - D-Mo .026 / .110
    SF - Trevor Ariza .090 / .108
    SG - James Harden .204 / .265
    PG - Patrick Beverley .102 / .096


    I ran out of zeal for the project before getting to RPM.... I am assuming their RPM will mirror the winshare thing - that is, slightly better last season due to better results? (or leading to better results?)

    Interestingly, last year. our 3rd best PER and 2nd best win share player was... Terrence Jones X factor . Maybe if he didn't play like toilet this year we would have won 5 more games... :confused:
     
  9. Briand2714

    Briand2714 Member

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    That's why I mentioned that maybe with the right coaching we could've won 48 instead of 41. But, you also have to keep in mind that Howard and Ariza is getting older by every passing year, not younger. While 30 is not that old, players usually experience athletic decline right around that period, and for a player like Dwight who relies heavily on his physical ability to play at a high level, this could cause him to lose all his advantages real fast.

    So, once you consider the fact that our supposed second star is no longer that, and other guys besides Harden are just barely average to below average, our record is really not that surprising. We overachieved last year 'cause Harden was having a breakout, MVP-caliber season and players like Dwight and Ariza, while still not great, played decently enough to be ranked top 20 in their respective position.
     
  10. Briand2714

    Briand2714 Member

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    Ah yes, huge decline in our PF spot relative to last year is not talked about that much, but it's definitely one of major reasons for our struggles this year. Also, our bench has been horrible throughout all season, whereas last year it was one of the best in the league.

    Obviously, Harden this year is not as good as last year, but that's like saying "Why can't you play like a top 2 player instead of top 10 player? This is all your fault!." That's ridiculous. We should really revamp our roster after this season, and at least try to acquire a 2nd scorer, if not a 2nd star.
     
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  11. rocketsballin

    rocketsballin Member

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    why are there so many posts like this on cf trying to figure out whats wrong? its obvious - bad coach, bad system, everyone plays worse. dont need this advanced stats crap its useless.
     
  12. J.R.

    J.R. Member

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    Well yeah! David Thorpe said today they have a lot of talent and Morey's roster is unbelievable! :):rolleyes:
     
  13. Briand2714

    Briand2714 Member

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    well, Golden State Warriors disagrees with you :)

    http://www.nba.com/warriors/news/wa...rd-2016-mit-sloan-sports-analytics-conference

    anyways, my point was we simply lack talent to compete at a high level, and I needed some proof or evidence to back up my claim, that's all.
     
  14. snowconeman22

    snowconeman22 Member

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    Nice effort . But really you shouldn't ever use win shares . It's completely worthless . All it can tell you is if a team won a bunch of games . And for that you just look at the win column .

    Per is a crap stat .

    There are a lot of measures that can be used to show a difference in production and talent and compare us to the Rest of the league . You happened to pick two of the worst stats :) .

    Before you bash , know that I really think stats are exceptionally important . Good data analysis has led to a lot of extra wins for GS and SA and the rockets over the last few years . It's exceptionally important in baseball , and will become even more important and well advertised in basketball . Football is late to the game , and they prolly use a bunch but just don't tell or openly talk about it ( becuase of a manly sports complex .)
     
  15. ibm

    ibm Member

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    i dont believe talent should be measured only by numbers on paper, let alone other traits and qualities necessary to contend for a championship.

    somehow i suspect morey may have had the same approach of the op's...
     
  16. Briand2714

    Briand2714 Member

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    PER and WS is not perfect, but they do measure offensive productivity pretty nicely. I included RPM as well for the defensive impact.

    Of course, I could've used more obscure and detailed ones, but then nobody would have understood them. I just wanted to show that we lack depth and talent in our roster by ranking our staring 5 players in their respective position. If you think there's more accurate way to measure this, then please go ahead and suggest.
     
  17. DaDakota

    DaDakota If you want to know, just ask!

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    Of course they are ranked low, they don't play defense.

    Trailing indicators!!!

    DD
     
  18. Briand2714

    Briand2714 Member

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    Talent is not only measured by numbers, but it is definitely quantifiable to a large extent. Do good players usually have good stats or bad stats? Of course, there are exceptions, but in majority of cases numbers back up good performance.

    Morey failed this season because he went away from analytics and trusted his fuzzy feeling. Did the numbers tell him to resign Brewer? He is a career 28% 3 point shooter, and he didn't shoot that well last year either. Not a single stat suggests he is a good defender. So, why did he resign him? Morey went with his guts and personal connection, and it bit him in the ass eventually. Same thing with expecting Dwight and Terry would still be good players while there were no evidence of that, and hiring JBB as our head coach.

    There was nothing analytic about Morey's decisions this season. And that was his ultimate downfall.
     
  19. txppratt

    txppratt Contributing Member

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    these stats tell me harden is a stellar (and not perfect) player. stick with harden and keep building around him, coach and whatnot. the offseason will tell us the trajectory. nba need a villain team next year? ya prolly for golden boy rascal mcthree-pointerson
     
  20. daywalker02

    daywalker02 Member

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    However, the SG dot does not connect too well with the other dots
     

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