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The curious case of Minnesota Timberwolves

Discussion in 'NBA Dish' started by meh, Feb 8, 2014.

  1. meh

    meh Contributing Member

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    They have the following stats.

    9th offense
    11th defense
    Scoring differential of +3.9 (higher than the Rockets at +3.8)
    24-26 actual record, underperforming their Pythagorean record by a whopping 7 games.

    They are a staggering 8-18 in games decided by single digits. They are 1-12 in games decided by less than 5 points.

    What's really odd is that Minnesota has done worse than their point differential for many years. Their actual record vs. their record based on point differential the past 6 years including this one, -7, -3, -2, -7, -2, -3. BTW, this does extend back to before Adelman so it doesn't seem to be just a coaching issue. Also, Adelman's record vs. point differential is fairly on point when he coached the Rockets(0, 0, +2, -4 in his four years here).

    Which makes me wonder if this has anything to do with Love. Perhaps there is something to the "empty stats" label he has.
     
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  2. arjun

    arjun Member

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    He can't create his own shot the down the stretch...and Rubio can't shoot..makes them pretty easily to defend.
     
  3. arjun

    arjun Member

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    I should clarify, easy to defend down the stretch when teams are locked in defensively
     
  4. zeeshan2

    zeeshan2 Member

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    If Rubio only played defense, the wolves would be much better. They are without pekovic also
     
  5. ItsMyFault

    ItsMyFault Contributing Member

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    They don't really have a go-to guy in the clutch. ESPN showed their record as something like 1-13 in games decided by 4 pts or less. That's a very poor record.
     
  6. Aleron

    Aleron Contributing Member

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    Basketball reference's parsers are pretty inaccurate compared to the nba's own, which gives them +2.5 and us +5.4
     
  7. kuku

    kuku Contributing Member

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    Here are some eye popping stats on the Wolves.

    Average margin by quarters:

    1st: +2.7
    Rank #1
    Pythagorean projection: a 69-win team

    4th: -2.1
    Rank #29
    Pythagorean projection: a 20-win team

    1st quarter:
    FG%: 45.9
    3p%: 40.8

    4th quarter:
    FG%: 40.5
    3P%: 28.2

    Wolves were the most well-prepared team and played like a 96-97 Bulls in the first quarters BUT faltered like a bottom of the barrel Bucks in the 4th. They are the Jekyll and Hyde of basketball this year! Two things could be the culprit for their demise in the 4th:

    1. Players conditioning
    Among the core players, it has to be Rubio. He is the motor that runs the machine. His ACL injury limited his workouts to leg strengthening and shooting in the past offseason.

    2. Rotations/substitutions
    Barea has been absolutely awful this year. If he can't knock down outside shots, he is totally worthless and he's been awful in the 4th. He is our AB0.

    I take that back. Brooks is a much better player than Barea. It may seem that Adelman loves to stick with Barea down the stretch (averaged 7.2 min in the 4th in 50 games). I don't believe that's the case. It's more of a 'pick your poison' b/c Rubio had even worse shooting in 4th than Barea's 37 FG%.

    Rubio's 4th quarter shooting?
    FG% 25%
    3P% 23.1%
     
  8. Carl Herrera

    Carl Herrera Contributing Member

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    One note about the Wolves: Their bench sucks. Look at the on/off plus/minus of their guys. Huge gap between starters and bench guys.
     
  9. meh

    meh Contributing Member

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    I used espn's points differential. Looked up BR. Although it hasn't updated for the most recent game, looks about the same.
     
  10. meh

    meh Contributing Member

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    Shouldn't such a team be better in the clutch? Nobody plays their scrubs in crunch time. That is, assuming one subscribes to Adelman's belief that Berea is better than Rubio and that's why he closes games for them
     
  11. Panda23

    Panda23 Member

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    [​IMG]

    Maybe he needs to change his shooting stroke and not his face
     
  12. Panda23

    Panda23 Member

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    This is exacerbated by the fact that, as kuku points out, Rubio is absolutely allergic to scoring, even moreso in the fourth. Teams just zone in on Love and force everyone else to beat them, and as they should according to their record in close games
     
  13. Old Man Rock

    Old Man Rock Contributing Member

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    It's what someone said earlier. Love can't create his own shot. The winningest teams have someone or several someones who are clutch down the stretch. Durant, Lebron, George. Even the Blazers with Aldridge and Dilliard are more clutch.

    Love is just a great role player. A super great one but not someone you build a franchise around. He would be a good second fiddle with a young but not this dead man walking Kobe. The Lakers want to build around him. HA!

    They destroyed their franchise when they let Howard walk and resigned Kobe to that stupid contract. I love it. The got to hope they win one of the top 2 picks in the lottery. That's their only chance of returning to greatness any time soon. Hello to the new CBA Lakers. No more sign and trades for equal money. Tinsel town is a chokehold on players money. If Love signs there he will only be able to dream of the days he played on a winning team as good as the Wolves. I know I am off topic but I hate Kobe and the Lakers. And love their predicament.
     
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  14. Aleron

    Aleron Contributing Member

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  15. FaBo

    FaBo Member

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    I disagree. He may not be the best shot creator that ever walked the earth, but you don't score 25.6 ppg and have multiple 30 and even 40 point games without being able to create your shot. Come on now.

    Their biggest problem is their bench. You know you're in trouble when the best player coming off the bench is JJ Barea. Budinger, after being out that long due to injury, is obviously nowhere near his best, Cunningham as gone from being a solid bench player (last season averaged 9/5) to a pretty bad bench player and the rest is not even worthy of being mentioned.
     
  16. A_3PO

    A_3PO Member

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    Rubio's percentage at the rim is unbelievable. Seriously. How is that possible?
     
  17. dharocks

    dharocks Contributing Member

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    I've never seen an NBA player shoot layups with the wrong hand as frequently as Ricky Rubio. It's bizarre.
     
  18. WNBA

    WNBA Member

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    Kevin Martin is another empty stats guy.
     
  19. crash5179

    crash5179 Contributing Member

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    That's not always true. If you just look at the Rockets history, Sam Cassell, Scotty Brooks, Cat, Carl Landry all were mainstreams during clutch time off of the bench.

    Looking at more recent history around the league Jason Terry and Manu Genobili were both clutch time players off of the bench. Even on Minnesota's bench, JJ Berea contributed a lot of quality clutch time minutes for the Mavs when they won the Championship a few years back.
     
  20. crash5179

    crash5179 Contributing Member

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    Were they empty stats last year in game 6 against the Thunder when he dropped 25 on the Rockets and helped eliminate us from the play-offs?
     

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