Not too long ago I did a thread analyzing floor positioning, trying to figure out where certain players need to get there shots from ( http://bbs.clutchfans.com/showthread.php?t=118361&page=1 ). After reading Clutches article on T-Mac talking about shooters, and the the Chronicle article, I pondered to myself if the Rockets really have the 3pt shooters to win big. This thread takes a closer look at the Rockets 3pt shooting situation and my conclusions will follow. It is now well known that the Rockets were one of the worst 3pt shooting teams last year (33.2%, 27th out of 30 teams). They were also one of the worst teams at defending the 3pter (opponents shot 36.9%, 25th out of 30 teams). 2 years ago the Rockets were much better at those two aspects (36.4% 3pt shooting for 6th best and 33.8% 3pt defending for 4th best), and I believe that these elements are vital to the Rockets success this upcoming season. One factor that came to light in my last thread was that I noticed the Rockets were not necessarily a bad 3pt shooting team last year, but that they lacked balance. They shot very well from the corners and middle, but very poorly from the elbows. Whether it's due to design or just lack of knowledgeable shot selection or both, the Rockets killed themselves by shooting a vast majority of their 3pters from the elbows, their worst shooting zones. Here's an illustration of their 3pt last year shooting taken from Hotzones: Now compare that to their 3pt shooting from 2 years ago. Notice the balance in their ability to hit the 3ball from anywhere. So what went wrong last year? One answer is that T-Mac and Yao were hurt, and there was no one left on the team that could demand a double team or penetrate and kick out with much success. The result was that generally, the 3pters were more difficult last year than 2 years ago. While I buy this argument to an extent, 3pt success also has to do with the individual ability of the 3pt shooter. 2 years ago the Rockets 3pt shooting was anchored by Jon Barry, David Wesley, Mike James, Scott Padgett, and Bob Sura. Barry, Wesley, and Padgett were prolific 3pt shooters for their careers; Mike James went on to become one of the League's best 3pt shooters last year. Of the Rockets shooting core, only Bob Sura seemed to be a result of the system. While Sura shot the 3 well back in 1999, he's had very below average shooting years until he resurged for 35.5% with the Rockets. He did his job nailing T-Mac kickouts and Yao double team kick outs. I doubt though that Sura was able to hit the elbow like the others. I don't have Sura's exact numbers, so I'm doing a deduction here. T-Mac, Barry, Wesley, James and Padgett, went a combined 287/761 from the elbows that year for 37.7%. The rest of the team (including Sura) shot a combined 23/90 from the elbows for 25.6%. While Sura could have been like 10 of 30 or something, the evidence shows that Sura was not a great contributor from there. Padgett played way fewer minutes and made 36/86 elbow shots by himselft. Wesley went 61/162 from the elbows. All the other Rockets 3pt shooters shot a lot more than Sura from the elbows, and they were all probably better shooters from there too. Sura did nail that huge 3 vs the Mavs in game 2 though....that was awesome. But this all brings me to a point. If it can be deduced that Sura's 3's were from mostly the corners, and the rest of the elbow 3pt shooters were all talented shooters on their own, does it take a certain type of talent to shoot that elbow 3? Can a system that promotes open elbow 3pters make an average elbow 3pt shooter better? Do the Rockets have the players that can hit that shot? This upcoming season, the Rockets will put out a main rotation of Yao, Battier, T-Mac, Wells, Alston, Head, Snyder, and JHo. Of those 8, all but Yao and JHo shoot the 3ball. Below is a projection of the Rockets 3pt shooting for next year, given the performances of T-Mac, Battier, Wells, Alston, Head, and Snyder from last year. Overall, the Rockets 3pt shooting would be 404/1183 for 34.2% (good enough for 22nd in the League). While it is better than the 33.2% of last year, it is hardly enough improvement. The problem is that they still lack balance (mainly suffering from the elbows). The addition of Battier gives them a dead eye corners 3baller, but not anywhere else. Wesley was their best 3pt elbows shooter last year, and now that he's gone, their statistics from those spots are even worse (see 1st picture). Now I know this is not an exact science, but if the season starts and the Rockets still shoot the elbow 3s a whole bunch and still miss them a whole bunch, that would be a MAJOR problem. ------------------------------------ What must be done? The Nothing Approach The statistics show that elbow 3pt shooting is something that the Rockets must improve upon from last year. But they also show that nobody in the Rockets main 8 rotation was able to hit that shot last year. As stated earlier, a healthy T-Mac and Yao could make things systematically better by giving people open shots. But I'm not optimistic of that given the fact that Bob Sura was a system improvement and I showed earlier that he did not anchor the 3pt elbows at all 2 years ago. One could also look at Clutch's article on Rafer ( http://www.clutchfans.com/news/1348/hard_look_rafer_alston/ ) to see that while it was only a small sample size, Rafer did not shoot any better from 3ball land when he played with a healthy Yao and T-Mac. The Off-Season Improvement Approach It's been reported by insiders here and quoted in the papers that Luther Head has worked on his shot all summer. Since last year was his rookie year, there is no history and no trend to his shooting yet. Hopefully he will be able to hit the elbow 3 (something he didn't do well last year). Rafer has been reportedly working on his 3pt shot too. While last year he was an atrocious 50/191 for 26.2% from the elbows, 2 years ago he was much better shooting 96/261 for a very good 36.8% from the 3pt elbows. JVG has stated that Snyder should focus on his spot up 3 (amongst other things). And then there's T-Mac. I love T-Mac, but his 3pt shooting seems to be the elephant in the room that nobody wants to admit is there. In 02/03 T-Mac shot a career high 38.6% from 3ball land. In 03/04 it was 33.9%; in 04/05 it was 32.6%; last year it was 31.2%. Yes he was injury riddled. Yes, it could have been an off year. But when you're getting worse every year for 4 years in a row, that looks like a trend. To put things in perspective, last year 108 players in the ENTIRE LEAGUE made enough 3pters to qualify for their 3pt percentages to be ranked. T-Mac easily qualified and ranked 104th . Hopefully this year with his healed back and renewed emotional fitness, T-Mac's 3pt shooting will start going up again. I know he still commands a double team and I know he's still one of the best playmakers in the league, but he was just as much of a culprit of terrible elbow 3pt shooting last year(44/149 for 29.5%) as Luther and Rafer were. Like Rafer, T-Mac has been able to hit the elbow 3 with consitency in the past (34.3% in 04/05 and 34.1% in 03/04), and a return to 34% or higher shooting for eblow 3s would greatly help the Rockets win games. The Improved Shot Recognition Approach This isn't just about shooting open shots. This is about understanding where you are weak and where you are strong, and capitalizing on your shooting strengths. If the Rockets continue to shoot terribly from the elbow 3s, they need to cut down on those shots period. Screw the open jumper. Drive it in, repost, do whatever, because if they continue to hit 30% or less from the elbows, they aren't going anywhere in the playoffs. In my other thread one conclusion that I came accross was that the Spurs were similar to the Rockets in that they were much stronger at nailing the corner and middle 3's than they were at hitting the elbow 3's. Now while they were still better 3pt shooters than the Rockets from everywhere, they shot the majority of their 3's from their best zones, while the Rockets did the opposite. And I would argue that the current Rockets have all the tools necessary in terms of post players and drive players to imitate the way the Spurs get 3pt shots off. This smart strategy helped the Spurs to a 2nd best 3pt shooting in the League at 38.5% (only behind Phoenix's scorching 39.9%). And I hate the Spurs but I must respect, for even JVG recognized their latest brilliant move. They acquired Matt Bonner. If you look at my previous thread ( http://bbs.clutchfans.com/showthread.php?t=118361&page=1 ) down the bottom of the first page, you can see that I created a list of the top 28 elbow 3pt shooters in the league by percentage. Matt Bonner was #3 in the entire League. So it's not like the Spurs were bad at shooting elbow 3's before (35.8%), but now they have shored up their weakest 3pt areas to make every 3pt area a strength. They are ultimately balanced and once again I see them and Phoenix as the top 2 3pt shooting teams next year. The Make Some Damn Trades Approach As Van Gundier and I discussed in a thread in the NBA forum ( http://forums.clutchfans.net/showthread.php?t=118624 ), it seems that the Rockets will have room to use their $4.2 million TPE without going over the Luxury Tax threshold this year. And if Bob Sura comes off the books before next year, they could even attain a contract that lasts longer than 1 year, and still have space to use all of their MLE next year without getting into Luxury Tax land. If the Rockets continue to fail at hitting the elbow 3, here are a list of players that are attainalbe who can hit that shot (by attainable I mean not Ray Allen and not Leandro Barbosa etc.): Derek Fisher, Utah Jazz backup point, $5.88 million this year, 4 years left. He hit 39.6% from the elbow 3s last year (24th best) and 39.7% overall 3s (26th best) -- a trade for him would have to include Rafer, Fisher is 2 years older but giving up Rafer + Bowen and crap for Fisher might be worth it if Rafer cannot turn his 3pt shooting around. Derron Williams is a great 3pt shooter, so maybe Alston can be a good change of pace show running backup for them. Raef LaFrentz, Portland backup, $10.9 million this year, 3 years left. He hit 40.0% from the elbow 3's last year (22nd best) and 39.2% overall 3s (34th best). jopatmc made a Raef LaFrentz thread ( http://bbs.clutchfans.com/showthread.php?t=118378 ), and it didn't get good responses. While I totally understand his salary burden, and don't see the Rockes trading for him, he does bring about shooting that the Rockets sorely need. And also, IF they can move JHo AND Rafer for LaFrentz, I think the Rockets should take a long and hard look at it. Portland might not do it though, because a JHo and Rafer contract totals more $ and yrs then LaFrentz alone. The Rockets would not want to part with Bob Sura's contract + JHo for LaFrentz, because they need Sura's to come off the books (whether it's this year or next). Tyronne Lue, Atl backup PG, $3.5 million this year, 2 years left. He hit 44.6% from the elbow 3's last year (5th best) and 45.7% overall 3's (2nd best...wow). Atlanta is in a financial bind nowadays and perhaps Lue can be had for the TE plus a 2nd rounder or something. He's not perfect, and Van Gundy did trade him before for Jon Barry, but I don't think JVG hated Lue. That 3pt % is really nice though. Earl Watson...nevermind, he's unattainable. Brian Cook, Lakers backup, F, $1.5 million this year, final year. He hit 43.3% from the elbow 3's last year (9th best) and 42.9% overall 3's (9th best). This is someone I'd love the Rockets to have. He has a very cap friendly contract in his final year that could be had under the TE. He also might be the odd man out in the lakers forward Rotation of Odom, Kwame, new gunner Radman, Turiaf, Evans, and Walton. Phil Jackson played Luke walton big time last year during the playoffs instead of Brian Cook. His D must be terrible, but his marksmenship is amazing. He also has athleticism and long reach. I'd love a PF rotation of Battier, Hayes, and Cook. Damon Jones, Cavs backup PG, $3.8 million this year, 3 yrs left. He hit 37.4% from the elbow 3's last year (unranked) and 37.7% overall 3's (50th best). He has a history of solid 3pt shooting and he's from Houston and went to UH I think. Perhaps Cleveland will let him go now that they've signed David Wesley, to go along with their backcourt rotation of Larry Hughes and Eric Snow. He excelled in Miami with Shaq and DWade; perhaps he can excel if he lands in Houston. The Put Other Players Into the Rotation Approach Novak, Padgett, and Jacobsen are proven 3pt gunners. Novak was a college stud and T-Mac says he's the best. The problem is Novak for now doesn't look like he's in the top 8 or 9 rotation and Padgett and Jacobsen aren't even on the official roster for the season yet. We'll see how they're playing time goes this season, and must keep an eye on the correlating 3pt shooting of the team. ------------------------------------------ 3pt Defense At least there's a bright side. I strongly believe that the Rockets are going to really improve on their porous 3pt defense of last year. Yao and T-Mac not only are great offensive players, but they are great defenders too. Their return will surely help the Rockets. Also JVG's system prefers the opponent take 3pt jumpers than inside shots. Now last year, too many of those 3's were too open, thanks to slow and/or poor rotationing (like Stromile not getting to LaFrentz leading to a career day from 3ball land). This year, the Rockets have better athletes than 2 years ago. Battier, Snyder, Bonzi, a healthy T-Mac, a quick V-Span, and hopefully an improved Head and Alston(his D sucks though), should be a lot better at rotating to shooters than before. ------------------------------------ Well, that's all for now. I don't think it's Doomsday for the Rockets, but to me there a clear weaknesses that this Team must improve on one way or another. They don't have to become great at everything, but any improvement in any of the ways above can make a world of difference. So many things can affect the game; a shot here, a bounce there, can all make the difference in a win. So when I've been reading all this feel good stuff about better 3pt shooting, it just doesn't look right when you put it under a microscope. This is something that must be tracked this year, and if it continues to falter, look for some changes.
Good work. One thing I'll have to say is that hopefully the difficulty of the 3 pt shots taken by every player will decrease this year with healthy stars and more offensive options around. TMac does a masterful job of creating easy 3 pt shots for everyone else and passing out to the shooters (he's ahead of Yao in this department... ahead of 90% of the players in the league, in my opinion). I hope having some more TMac created 3s will increase the % of each player from the year before. Also, perhaps the distribution of 3 pt shots by player will change. Battier didn't shoot that many last year, especially outside of the corners. Rafer, who shot a poor %, shot a lot. Maybe more time at the 4 would mean Battier doubles his attempts? The same goes with Snyder and Head, who knows what their roles will be with the team. Also, I'm guessing Rafer's poor showing accounts for much of the low% from the corners (and overall) in the analysis based on last year's numbers... If Rafer were to improve-- or to shoot less--- I guess it'll change the analysis quite a bit. Also, about TMac's 3pt %... he needs to take easier shots, too. He gets a lot of bailout shots with defenders in his face and/or clock running down. Yeah, that makes for heroics, but not for high % shooting. I hope with more balanced firepower, TMac will get a few more open looks rather than desperation heaves. My guess it the Rockets wait and see how the shot making goes for the rest of the preseason before deciding whether to make a move or not.
I believe one of our key improvements over last year will be perimeter defense. We will NOT be shredded so easily by good shooting backcourts. This will allow us to successfully close out more tight games. I'm probably the only one who feels this way, but the improvement in perimeter defense is almost as important as the improvement in 3 point shooting. Hopefully we can expose weak defensive teams that live and die by long range shooting and stomp them.
This is a great analysis of our 3 point shooting and the only conclusion that I can draw from it is that JVG must play and develop Novac! If he doesn't then it looks like our three point shooting is going to possibly be a repeat of last season.If Novac is the crack shooter that he is being made out to be, how can any sane coach not include him in the rotation?
You know there was a lot of hard work in that post and it was very well thought out but I have just one question... How can we even remotely begin to analyze this teams three point shooting when over half the roster has been changed. We may think we have a clue but we don't. Case in point. Sura, who had a 32% 3pt shooting percentage before coming to Houston but had a career year hitting over 38% by getting wide open looks by playing with Yao and TMac. Another thing to keep in mind is that stats sometimes lie or do not tell the whole story. Example...Reaf LaFrentz. When the Mavs traded for him Don Nelson had visions of a deadly 3pt shooting PF/C that could nail 40+ percent of his threes and pull guys like Shaq, Duncan, Webber and KG out from under the basket forcing them to guard the perimeter. Instead what Don Nelson and the Mavericks got was Clank, Clank, Clank. Sure Reaf still would go 5 for 6 from beyond the arc against teams like the Rockets and Clippers but who cares because the Mavs were already whipping us. Reaf is a mental midget that can not shoot when the pressure is on...even when he was surrounded by players like Dirk, Finley and Nash. That is why Reaf is no longer in Dallas. We know Battier's and Padgett's shooting is good enough to effect games. We have good reason to beleive Novak, Jacobson, Lucas and Head will also be able to shoot fron beyond the arc to effect games. We can also hope that playing with Yao and T-Mac will have a similar affect on Bonzi, V-Span, Snyder and Rafer as it had on Sura. But the fact is we just don't know and we will not know until we see them playing together. IMO enough is enough. No more trades until we see what we have and can make an evaluation based on what the players do on the floor together and not from a stat page or news paper article. BTW, Kim, my comments aside I enjoyed your posts and hope this thread brings out some good debate.
Excellent effort. I would only say the combination of Bowens, Bogans, Alston and howard on the court with Yao is about as bad as you can get. The stats don't show how terrible that team was at the end of the season. Yao was getting double and triple teamed everytime down and people were getting wide open 3's and missing. It was a sin how poorly they shot. This team has to be better than that but for all the talk of improving our 3 point shooting this off season have we really? Battier starting at the PF certainly helps. But another problem is Bonzi is not a 3 point shooter and that was one of our better 3 point positions last year with Wesley and Head. I know Snyder was unproven but his 3 point shooting looked like it was good and with all the open looks he would get on this team would only get better. (Which brings up another point... as talented as Bonzi is he may not be a good fit for this team. I watched NBATV SA against Sac last night and Bonzi was awesome but he was scoring exactly from Yao's spot. Houston we have a problem! But that's another subject so I won't go there). As far as PG goes, Alston looks to be our starter at the 1, no real improvement there and Tmac is back at the 3, ditto for him. So I don't know if the realization of being a better 3 point shooting will come to pass. Certainly Novak will help coming off the bench but will the rookie get enough minutes to make a difference as for Casey and Padgett they may not even make the team. So let's talk about trade. Trade who for what. Yao Tmac Battier and Bonzi are all locked for big minutes. So that leaves Alston spot as the only starter who we would consider replacing with a better 3 point shooter. Were are we going to find a PG who can shoot the 3 and can run the offense at least as good as Alston. Mike James was the best shot and that didn't happen so I would say forget improving the pg spot via trade. The only real place place we can hope for some improvement is in a trade for backup players and I would say let's see what we got before we start talking trade. We haven't even seen this team in a game yet. Hell with Van Gundy's stupid no show policy we haven't even seen them in a scrimmage. So maybe we should watch a few games before we start analyzing what we got. Maybe JVG will use a little creativity and put a team like Yao Tmac Battier Novak and Head on the court at the same time. Who knows maybe once the team realizes how open they will be behind the arc they will shoot with more confidence.
Awesome analysis, great job. I too believe that 3 point shooting (and perimeter defense) will be big keys in our wins and losses this year, as they were last year. I've gotta agree with Van Gundier though that if you include Novak and some combination of Jacobsen, Padgett, along with taking out some of Alston's (and hopefully some of Wells') 3 point shots because we really won't need either of them jacking up 3's. I'm excited for the opportunities and potential that this team has not only for a big 3 point improvement due to these new players, but also because you almost have to add a percentage point or two to everyone on the floor when Yao and Tmac are healthy and creating open shots. A dominate center down low will draw the double team and kick outs (V.G., I know we need to re-post too) will create for some sweet open looks. To go along with this improved offense will be an improved defense. Yao is already a proven defender at the 5. T-mac has shown that he can step up his D when he needs to, and be a solid defender (can guard most 2's and even many 4's for the last few minutes of a game). You add to that Battier and Wells, who can potentially both be rock solid on D, and you just need on more guy in there on clutch defense plays (Snyder?), and we're set. Who would've imagined we would have improved so much this year, after the draft day trade and missing out on James? Not me, but I'm getting excited now.
Wow Great thread! i admire your dedication on putting this great analysis! good job. Now if we can only tell this to the staff, so they can improved on those elbow shots
I'm thinking the "Alston better improve or not shoot as much method" will be the key to improving the Rockets 3 pt percentage. Wells doesn't shoot too many three pointers, but he seems to be able to hit open threes when he's not the primary threat on court.
Yeah, I'm in the wait and see camp myself you guys. And I stated in the post that this isn't an exact science, but just a projection based on partial information. I really, really hope that T-Mac, Rafer, and Luther can turn it around because they will surely be taking a lot of 3pt shots. One of the first solutions is to see what happens, but then if things continue to be as bad as they were last season, the other solutions have to be looked at.
I'm not worried about McGrady's shooting at all. In fact, I think he is one of the best in the league at the elbows or from any distance. simple reasons why his shooting % was down. 1. McGrady has to take all the bail out shots when the shot clock runs down. 2. McGrady takes most (90%) of the shots at the end of the quarters. 3. Last year, his back was driving him nuts, obviously effecting his shooting. 4. Last year, no Yao. When TMac was on the floor, and we didn't have shooters (especially when DWes was out), he had to shoot too much and take bad shots. Even with a healthy Yao and a team of shooters, you have to realize that McGrady's shooting percentages are going to be skewed down a little bit because of the fact that he has to take all the desparation shots when the shot clock is winding down and at the ends of quarters. If he shoots 36% out there from the elbows, to me, that is highly respectable considering how many bail out shots he has to take. Rafer had 2 problems last year: 1. Bad shooting mechanics 2. Same as McGrady, being forced to take too many shots because there was nobody on the floor to score the ball. Hopefully, Rafer worked on his mechanics over the summer and got back to using his legs more on his shot and less arms. Last year, his shot was way too much arms and no leg explosion. My guess is his injury earlier in the season probably messed with his mechanics when he came back and he was never able to get it fixed. IMO, he will come back a lot better shooter this year over last. If he is not, then ....trade?? Luther started out shooting rather well but digressed as the season wore on. I really think that was just the rookie wall mostly. He's got good form and plenty of lift. Most of his problems are confidence and fatigue issues. Hopefully, if he isn't traded, he will come back much stronger and not have those issues so much this year. He sure looks good from the pics. Looks like he has slapped on some muscle. Barry, Wesley, James, and Padgett were certainly main factors in our run 2 seasons ago. They were replaced last year by an injured and older Wesley, Keith Bogans, Stromile, and Rafer. Yeah, we finally got Frahm and Barry got off a few shots but still Keith couldn't shoot, Rafer's % was low, and Wesley was inconsistent because of injury and age. When you look at TMac's percentages from 05-06, there really wasn't a big difference there. The biggest difference was he was taking so many shots in 2005 and those shots were distributed out amongst inferior shooters including guys who couldn't spread the floor and shoot the 3 at all (Stromile). Stro has been replaced with Battier, Bogans has been replaced by Snyder, DWes has been replaced by Bonzi (not a 3 point shooter by his own admission, but still not bad), and Rafer should be improved. Not to mention improvement from Head and also guys like Novak and Jacobsen sitting on the bench hopefully. Just the synergy of having shooters on the floor is going to make us a lot better. And if Yao is on the floor, those 3 point looks are going to be much much better.
I would have called it the "Wing 3" rather than "elbow 3." I've never heard of Elbow 3; just the elbow at the corners of the lane. One thing about the numbers, it shows that 50% of the 3s attempted in both yrs are from the wings. So basically, you are not a good 3pt team until you can hit the 3 from the spots that are most often open. And I suspect that defenses are going to attempt to challenge those 3s more.
wow great post! way to workup that moneyball mentality! i wonder how fred hoiberg's elbow 3point shooting looks. yeah he retired, but i wouldnt mind convincing him to just show up at games and shoot a few 3's and sit.
great post, three point shooting and defense kills us. maybe the coaching staff will take a look at this, although they probably already know, i feel like a lot of the additions we made directly address this issue. We also have a lot of new players to reiterate what XXXXXXX(forgot his name) said earlier. keep your fingers crossed.
Yeah, I think what some are missing is that all these 3 point shooters we're hearing about are bench players. When Clutch asked Tmac about shooting, he named Jacobsen and Novak. Historically, it is difficult to win championships with a non-shooting starting unit. Miami might be the recent exception. Look at the Spurs, look at the Mavs, and they've got 5 good starters including guys who can hit the 3 and do several other things well. Bruce Bowen has been so valuable because he does two things well, shooting and defense. That's why I think Battier is a huge addition for us. I think it's crucial for either Snyder or Head to have huge years from 3, enabling us to bring wither Rafer or Bonzi off the bench. Unless Rafer shows improvement, I don't like those two in the starting lineup together.
jvg wants to surround tmac and yao with players can defend and can shoot, i see 3 players fit this category: battier/snyder/head wells/alston/vspan may turn int better shooters simply because of the system
there was an article in the chronicle about battier, and he says hes going to see a lot of minutes at the 4 spot. imagine with tmac driving and dishing out of the double teams(same with yao) how many corner 3pters he is going to get. and i think that in another one of kim's detailed statistical analizations, it showed that battier is most efficient from the corner 3.
The Nothing Approach. With healthy T-Mac and Yao, 3-pointers will work themselves out in my opinion. We had healthy T-Mac and Yao in 04-05, and we didn't in 05-06. There's your discrepancy.
