Apparently, I'm pro-tanking Since the news that Yao is once more out for the season, there has been a lot of discussion over whether we should blow it up and rebuild or continue to try to build upon our current core. I haven't been happy with the discussion for the most part because it seems that if you advocate blowing it up to rebuild, you're accused of wanting to tank. So far, all of the threads I have seen on the topic as of yet have been "anti-tanking". For examples look no further than: Tanks but no tanks by topfive: http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showthread.php?p=5812406#post5812406 and 99 reasons not to tank by Trugoy: http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showthread.php?t=198060 As such, I decided to start a thread in which I bring together some things I’ve brought up in the other discussions along with some new information to take a very different slant on the topic. You see, despite the fact the Rockets have been playing well lately and look like they could even sneak into the playoffs, I advocate blowing it up and rebuilding. Why, you may ask? Well, let me begin by quoting topfive. There isn’t much said there that I disagree with. The only point of difference for me is that I would subtract Greg Oden from the second tier stars and add Russell Westbrook and Blake Griffin. Topfive goes on to bring up the following: He's right. Those aren't good odds. In fact, if you consider that information on its own, it seems to support the position that the team should continue building upon our current middling squad. But there is more to consider. Between topfive’s list and my additions, we are left with a total of 18 superstars and second tier players. Of which, only ONE of those superstars is on a team that didn't draft him (Lebron James). Only THREE of the second tier stars are with a team that didn't draft them (Bosh, Stoudemire, Johnson). So of 18 top notch players, 14 of them are on the teams that drafted them. That is more than 75% of them. Oh, and by the way, two of those guys who aren't with the team who drafted them bolted to join Dwyane Wade, who Miami drafted. Only Amar'e Stoudemire and Joe Johnson have signed deals with teams that had no other star (and Amar'e thought one of the other big name free agents would join him and is still planning on either Melo or Paul joining him). Now, I'll grant you that even 18 star players in 10 years does not give us great odds. And, in fact, the odds become considerably worse if you only count the six top tier players that have proven to be truly worthy of being built around. As topfive said, only about 5% of players taken in 10 years were superstars. Well, those seem terrible odds. But let's examine that further. Less than 5% of lottery picks in ten years have become superstars. But only 16.6% of those superstars have ever left the team who drafted them (which is, incidentally, just the one guy, who, again, went to join another superstar who has remained with the team who drafted him). Now, even ignoring the fact that when a superstar leaves his team these days it is likely to pair up with another one (and we don’t have one), that still leaves every team a mere .57% (a little more than half a percent) chance of signing or trading for a superstar they did not draft over that same 10 year period. This means that, over the past ten years, the odds of drafting a superstar is nearly 10 times better than of trading for one or acquiring them in free agency. Yeah. I think I like our odds through the draft. Now, I know many will point to franchises like the Los Angeles Clippers and the Minnesota Timberwolves – but those are HORRIBLE franchises with TERRIBLE management and ownership (and I’m not even sure that the Timberwolves aren’t finally getting close to turning the corner). The Rockets are not a bad franchise. In fact, we have a very strong front office. I see no reason we can’t match the success of the Oklahoma City Thunder. But why are superstars so important To answer that question, why don’t we examine the teams who have won the championship since 1985 (the first year of the current lottery system). 2009-10 Los Angeles Lakers - MVP: Kobe Bryant 2008-09 Los Angeles Lakers - MVP: Kobe Bryant 2007-08 Boston Celtics - MVP: Paul Pierce 2006-07 San Antonio Spurs - MVP: Tony Parker 2005-06 Miami Heat - MVP: Dwyane Wade 2004-05 San Antonio Spurs - MVP: Tim Duncan 2003-04 Detroit Pistons - MVP: Chauncey Billups 2002-03 San Antonio Spurs - MVP: Tim Duncan 2001-02 Los Angeles Lakers - MVP: Shaquille O'Neal 2000-01 Los Angeles Lakers - MVP: Shaquille O'Neal 1999-00 Los Angeles Lakers - MVP: Shaquille O'Neal 1998-99 San Antonio Spurs - MVP: Tim Duncan 1997-98 Chicago Bulls - MVP: Michael Jordan 1996-97 Chicago Bulls - MVP: Michael Jordan 1995-96 Chicago Bulls - MVP: Michael Jordan 1994-95 Houston Rockets - MVP: Hakeem Olajuwon 1993-94 Houston Rockets - MVP: Hakeem Olajuwon 1992-93 Chicago Bulls - MVP: Michael Jordan 1991-92 Chicago Bulls - MVP: Michael Jordan 1990-91 Chicago Bulls - MVP: Michael Jordan 1989-90 Detroit Pistons - MVP: Isiah Thomas 1988-89 Detroit Pistons - MVP: Joe Dumars 1987-88 Los Angeles Lakers - MVP: James Worthy 1986-87 Los Angeles Lakers - MVP: Magic Johnson 1985-86 Boston Celtics - MVP: Larry Bird What do these teams have in common? Almost all of them were led to the promised land by a player they drafted. In fact, in that 25 year period Chauncey Billups and Shaq (with the Lakers) are the only players to be named MVP of the finals who were not drafted by their respective teams (technically Charlotte drafted Kobe Bryant but they did so for the Lakers). Also important to note, only Tony Parker and Joe Dumars weren’t drafted in the top 14. In fact, only Kobe, Paul Pierce, Tony Parker and Joe Dumars were taken later than the top five. Of those, Kobe was among the first wave of high school kids taken and wouldn't have fallen so far if he was drafted a few years later once drafting players out of high school became more accepted. And let's be real, even if Tony Parker was the Finals MVP that one year, he couldn't have been without their real MVP, Tim Duncan. In short, not only is the draft the most likely way to obtain a superstar, but it's unlikely that you'll draft a player capable of carrying a championship team if you aren't in the high lottery. Yes. Melo and Chris Paul may soon defect to new teams as well (though it appears both of them seem intent on joining another superstar). But I think it’s clear that the vast majority of successful teams build through the draft and that the majority of star players remain with the teams that drafted them at least until their twilight years. So while I understand why you may not want to suffer through 10-20 win seasons for multiple years, I hope you’ll now understand why I do. Quite simply, I see very little hope for becoming a championship contender if we fail to draft a star player. And I see very little hope of drafting a star player if we can't get into the top 6 or so.
I think you're leaving something out: Kobe Bryant: Not drafted by LA Tony Parker: Drafted so late anyone could have had him Billups: Not drafted by Detroit Shaq: Not drafted by LA Michael Jordan: Best player of all time and drafted only third?? Building through the draft is important, but it doesn't necessarily entail tanking to get the highest pick possible. We must be good talent evaluators, and be aggressive in making draft day deals. From this standpoint, if I were Morey, who is obviously a good talent evaluator, I would advocate lowering the draft age back down to 18, because he is more likely to accurately select the high school unknowns like the McGradys Kobes and Garnetts that go high but not necessarily the very top. For this reason I say we retool and keep building the way we have been. Gather up as many assets with potential and good contracts as possible. Either our players will realize their potential with us, or we'll use them as trade bait for other rookies with more potential. Tanking is simply not the way to go.
Actually, I did mention that Kobe was drafted by Charlotte. But as I said, Charlotte picked him for the Lakers. They already had the deal for Vlade Divac in place. I also mentioned that Billups and Shaq were the only two MVP's who weren't drafted by their teams. And while I didn't mention when exactly Parker was picked, I did cover the fact he couldn't have been a Finals MVP if they hadn't have drafted Tim Duncan with the #1 overall pick. I'm not sure how pointing out Jordan being taken 3rd over-all does anything but support my position. If you think we're going to land a superstar through trade or free agency, I'd appreciate it if you'd tell me who you foresee being available in the next few years.
That's in large part because those are all relatively young stars. Few of them have even reached 30 years old and most of them are under 26. Even Michael Jordan was 28 when he won his first title.
Sorry but your list of Superstars is bogus. If you did the list 7 years ago, you would put T-Mac as a superstar, you would put Vince Carter as a superstar. Dwight Howard Chris Paul Deron Williams Kevin Durant Most of these guys have been in the league 5 years or less, what the hell have they done that merits them to be called superstars? How the hell is CP3 or Deron any different than Kevin Johnson or Penny Hardaway? What has Dwight Howard done that makes him better than Patrick Ewing Or Alonzo Mourning? What has Durant done that makes him better than Dominique Wilkins? It is very easy to label someone a Superstar early in someone's career based on a few years of good production and your projected potential of where you think the player ends up. But things happen like injuries, and player's performance slips, it's very easy to have a few good years in the league, what seperates the true Superstars from the meremly good is sustained performance over a long time.
Fine then post all the other stars during the Shaq era, the Kobe/T-Mac era. Simply posting only the drafted stars who have won makes it look easy to win a championship by tanking, doesn't it.
But this isn't a few years ago. And I specifically point out that I'm covering superstar players drafted in the last ten years. And to be honest, I used that starting point because your anti-tanking ally, topfive, already put that info together and did the math on what the percentages were of drafting a superstar in those 10 years. And, quite simply, that was easier to use than to do more research on the topic. Even still, how does that support your position? You're simply saying there are even fewer superstars left to choose from. Which means they're even more difficult to obtain. How does that strengthen your position?
It's not even about tanking anymore. It's about "friends", now. "How many of us have themmmmmmmmmm"...ask Wade about his friends in this league. Who wants to play with who? Because if your #1 pick gets taken with 2 other guys that they are good friends with, guess what might just happen? See July 2010. You lose em after a while, and then there's another thread in 2018.
SO, you are willing to wait 1-3 years to draft a superstar (don't say if we tank one year we automatically draft a superstar, the draft is a hit and miss) then 6-8 more years (since most champs win theirs when they're 28 or older) to build around them. A total of 10 years. GOOD LUCK BUDDY
That's an interesting twist but totally off base. No. I'm not trying to claim it's easy to win a championship by 'tanking'. It's incredibly difficult to do. Only one out of thirty teams do it every year. To the contrary, I'm making the point that it's nearly impossible to win a championship without a period in which you have a top five pick or two or three.
It's even worse than that, you have about 10% chance of getting a real superstar, and 90% chance of getting a fake superstar. And you don't know you have a fake superstar until 10 years later when you've tried to build around him but you still can't contend.
I'm willing to be a 10-20 game winner for five years or more if that's what it takes. However, I think we can increase our odds by trading some of our current vets for potential high picks. At least there is a light at the end of the tunnel. As is, we're simply treading water hoping someone is going to throw us a lifesaver. As opposed to now, when we don't even have a fake superstar nor any prospects of acquiring one.
Seriously? I mean, with a lottery system that's difficult. But name me a team that has won a championship without a star player whom they drafted in the top 5. Oh right. I already did that. How is that not good enough? Off the top of my head, the only team I can think of that didn't have numerous years as a cellar dweller during their rebuilding process was the San Antonio Spurs - who tanked for a single year before they drafted Duncan. p.s. I never said consecutively.
5 years of 10-20 games? Well your championship favourites must be the Timberwolves, the Grizzlies, the Nets, the Clippers, the Kings. IN your logic, the worst teams in the league have the highest chance of winning the championship in the future.
That's absurd. Do you not remember the Lakers of the mid-nineties? Do you not remember how bad the Spurs were pre-David Robinson? Do you not remember how bad the Pistons were for many years after Grant Hill left? Or how bad Miami was in the post-Alonzo Mourning pre-Dwyane Wade era? Or even how bad the Celtics were for MANY years both before they drafted Pierce and then again for a while until they drafted Rondo and Perkins and added KG and Allen via trade? (trades they could only make by sending out lottery talent and draft picks). Not to mention you're completely disregarding everything in my original post to make this argument. The whole point was that almost every team to win an NBA championship in the past 25 years built their team around a top 5 pick of their own drafting. Obviously that's the model - not the worst franchises in the league. Come on.
every1 thinks tankin will guarntee a championship the answer is no tell that 2 griz kings twolves nets bobcats clippers wiz and all the other team that do it ask them if it works lets be real DONT NOT TANK MOREY!!!!! we got what we got PLAYOFFS 2011!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I like the team the way it is
There you have it folks.... you have a Rocket fan who wants to sit through 10-20 win seasons for five years. then add to that maybe 8 years to build around that player. **** THAT. I don't have that kind of patience. five seasons of patheticness, other fans will humiliate us. Have some dignity for godsake. Can't believe you would stoop so low to wish that upon us. It's like selling your soul to the devil. It really is.
