China has yet to send a person into space, yet there is talk that once that goal is completed their next ambition will involve moon landings and permanent bases. Is this possible-- in a decade unlikely, however 20 years from now there may well be a Chinese presence on the moon while the US remains in low earth orbit. We should know for sure the extent of their progress within two years, with the success or failure of their first manned space flight. I for one hope they succeed (both short term and long). Without a doubt such an accomplishment would spark the US space program, which is in disarray after years of poor decisions and management. What we saw and heard during our year of hearings and investigation convinced me that China intends to be on the moon within a decade and will announce they are there for a permanent stay. An investment of less than 1 percent of their growth revenues over the next decade would provide revenue for a very robust program. The race into space By Robert S. Walker Are the Chinese serious about human space flight? Most definitely. And they are interested in doing more than simply going to low Earth orbit. They are headed for the moon. For most of last year, the Commission on the Future of the U.S. Aerospace Industry looked at our nation's position relative to our global competition. Clearly, the Europeans are determined to challenge our preeminence in commercial aviation, and the challenge to our leadership in space is coming from the Pacific Rim. The conclusion that the Chinese are engaged in an aggressive space program is my own, based upon the commission's findings, but not included in the panel's final report. What we saw and heard during our year of hearings and investigation convinced me that China intends to be on the moon within a decade and will announce they are there for a permanent stay. An investment of less than 1 percent of their growth revenues over the next decade would provide revenue for a very robust program. When the aerospace commission visited the Russian cosmonaut training facility at Star City, we found a Chinese crew in residence. Since the Chinese space program seems to be basing its technology on Russian equipment, the presence of Chinese in Star City was not all that surprising. But where they were training was. The day we were visiting, the Chinese crew was utilizing the EVA (extra-vehicular activity) building. You do not train for EVAs if you are doing simple orbital missions. EVAs are typically related to space-based construction work. Put the Star City experience together with some direct discussions on the Pacific Rim and the picture becomes clear. Many Japanese space observers are convinced that China has a moon program and that, ultimately, Japan may be drawn into the competition. India already has created its own moon mission, in large part because they are monitoring Chinese space efforts. At my Washington office a few weeks ago, I met with a visiting Japanese parliamentarian who specializes in science and technology issues. I related to him my belief that the Chinese would be on the moon within a decade with a declaration of permanent occupation. He disagreed. He smiled and said my conclusion was accurate but my timing was off. In his view, the Chinese would be on the moon within three to four years. Regardless of who is right about the time frame, and I still believe that even a decade is ambitious, the fact remains that the Chinese are devoting resources and gearing up to do something that we are no longer technologically capable of achieving in the immediate future. We went to the moon, planted our flag, gathered samples, took credit for an amazing achievement in human history and then abandoned the effort. The space technology available to us today could not be used to replicate what we did 35 years ago. For many Americans, our inability to compete in a new moon race will not be important. Been there, done that. But for our strategic thinkers and planners, there are some serious questions that arise from a Chinese moon capability. First, a nation with the technological capacity to do a sustained moon program would have achieved an ability to build, integrate and utilize spacecraft. Without even ascribing any hostile intent to such a capability, our strategic planners would have to acknowledge the profound impact on the balance of power. Second, the Chinese have a long history of undertaking projects designed to enhance their national image. As the second nation ever to land humans on the lunar surface, China would attain international prestige. As the nation that establishes a permanent presence on the moon, the Chinese would have an ongoing international impact. Third, as the nation in position to exploit moon resources, China could leapfrog the world in some important earthbound technologies. Scientists have acknowledged the usefulness of H3 in helping achieve nuclear fusion success. The moon appears to be a large source of naturally occurring H3, a commodity that would be of such value that the transport back to Earth would be economically feasible. So far, there has been little recognition of or concern about the Chinese moon program in U.S. policy circles. But it represents a real challenge to our leadership role in space. Our response to the challenge should be aimed not at another moon program of our own, but the development of technologies that would give us the option of several different missions within a decade. Building new propulsion systems, such as nuclear plasma engines, would provide us with the ability to go back to the moon, but also to go to Mars in a mission taking weeks rather than months. The Chinese moon program appears to be a go whether we get back in the game or not. Space dominance is a 21st-century challenge we dare not refuse. The aerospace commission concluded that stretching our technological reach with new power and propulsion options and developing the capacity to get to low Earth orbit regularly and less expensively would help us hold our space leadership position well into the future. Robert S. Walker, former chairman of the House Science Committee, served last year as chairman of the Commission on the Future of the U.S. Aerospace Industry. He currently is chairman of Wexler and Walker Public Policy Associates.
This bothers me. The fact that we abandoned the moon in the first place bothered be, as I have never bought the idea that there is no reason to go there. Whoever controls the moon will dominate all levels of earth orbit. Whoever controls the moon will hold the keys to future expansion in our solar system, and eventually beyond. The USA must, in my view, be the one who holds those keys (although I've no problem in sharing those keys with more responsible nations such as Britian or Japan, for example). Also, our military edge is totally dependent upon our control of the space theater. Last week it was announced that the Europeans are set to build a competing GPS-type network; if that becomes available to our enemies, then we have lost a critical edge in warfare. That move, and the implications it has for future defense and commercial issues of competetiveness, is a harbinger of things to come. We could be back on the moon in three or four years if we wanted to. We could establish permanent bases there inside of a decade if we wanted to. We have been telling ourselves for decades that there is no reason to. We are wrong.
There have been reports that China might partner with the European Space Agency - EU on the GPS rival (Galileo).
Unfortunately if a major war between China or any nuclear nation capable of launching a few powerful weapons into space they would render all but the most hardened satellites useless. I think that is why we are working so hard on anti-missile technology. The 747 currently being fitted with some sort of chemical laser is high on the Rummy list of 21st century weaponry. They hope to have several flying at all times to shoot down missiles once the plume is detected. I believe it is close to the testing phase, but I need to read up on the program a bit more. The nearly complete abandonment of the Moon after the Apollo program was a very poor decision. The natural resources on the Moon alone are worth a much more extensive scientific research program.
Heavens above, treeman, we agree again. Thanks for the article, KingCheetah. A very interesting read. I think the Chinese are much farther away to putting people on the Moon, much less establishing a permanent presence there, than the time frame the writer implied. But the ability and desire of China to launch a large and sustained Lunar and orbital program, assuming there is not a significant change in their power structure, is undeniable. And the Russians are selling their hard-earned expertise wholesale... damn it, for less than wholesale. That's makes estimating how long it would take the Chinese, if determined, to do what they want to do very difficult. It could be a shorter period than I believe possible. The writer gives the reasons China would want to do this and discribes them very well. And treeman gives good reasons why we should be there... and I agree that we should never have ended our effort, although that's water under the bridge (or over the dam or whatever the expression is). There are a whole host of reasons for the U.S. to have a Lunar presence with our friends and Allies. Some treeman spelled out. Another is one that most people don't think of, but is vitally important, imo. What better place to take action from if we find an asteroid or comet that is a certain threat to strike the planet? There will be one, sooner or later, and presently we can do nothing about it. Nothing. That is unacceptable. And reason enough for a major presence in space and on the Moon.
I thought I would post a link on the 747 laser project as it sounds a bit "out there"...If it is on schedule the plane should already be undergoing testing. WICHITA, Kan., Jan. 22, 2000 - -- The first Airborne Laser (ABL) flying platform - a 747-400 Freighter - flew into Boeing (NYSE: BA) facilities in Wichita, Kan., today (Saturday, Jan. 22) and will immediately begin 18 months of major modification work by Team ABL. The aircraft left Paine Field in Everett, Wash., earlier today on its next step toward becoming the world's first flying missile defense system. http://www.boeing.com/news/releases/2000/news_release_000122a.html
This is almost the same thing Donald Rumsfeld has said..long ago. Before he even took office he completed a review of US space policy. He said" The US is an attractive target for a space Pearl Harbor" and called for increased resources to prepare the military for the growing threat from space. The Open Skies Treaty of 1967 forbids nukes and WMDS in space..but do we really want to count on Chineese compliance and gamble the future of our children and grandchildren.??.No. The race is on..like it or not.
Through the nineties, China was the last nation on earth still producing steam locomotives--are you seriously concerned they would EVER beat us in a space-race?? Here is an Idea straight from Mao--lets smelt steel in our back yards--"a family project and fun for the kids too!"
Well now they are smelting titanium, aluminum, and all the necessary metals to build a manned spaceship. They have already tested it with animals so within a year or two they will send a human into orbit, their plans are clear after that...the Moon. Will they win the race? No, but no one is racing anymore, we built an atomic bomb over 50 years ago and look at all the nations trying to develop that "old" technology.
I have absolutely no intrest in any military space synergy. However if you look at the pig picture and i mean really big you have to see that as a species we are but a mere gnat. A gnat in an enormous galaxy. there are countless ways for our species to be swatted out, and i am not talking about doing ourselves in. If we as a species become extra solar we gain survivability. the afore mentioned meteor is all it would take right now. If we had permanent self sufficient lunar or mars colonies we could survive the meteor. however when our sun buys the farm we will still be dust unless we can get extra solar. now the moon and mars will will be good for business. you cant build big space vessles in our gravity and expect to lift them up into space. Building space stations from earths gravity is rediculous. However constructing a ship yard on the moon. as well as refining the hydrogen out of moon rocks will allow us to launch space station muduels that are much larger and much cheaper. LARGE space stations will be necessary to power the earth cleanly and relatively cheap. Stations will also be used to build our first colony ships intended for far away places. Of course there are countless industries that would love to have a zero G manufacturing facility also. It is a mater of time before we as a species head toward the moon, and beyond, but I personally as long time student of space am certain that it will be private industry that makes our species permanently moon dwellers. so it does not matter if China beats us there, but it does matter if we let ourself be too complacent. you know like not going back to the moon for 40 years complacent...
The best anti-missile technology is almost useless - the best shot we have is if we can get it early in launch. That's not going to happen for something launched from deep in China unless we plan on filling the skies with stuff. And if they ever mastered that super gun technology (or launched sats with it), we'd have to hit the launcher itself to stop them. And if China aimed them at Taiwan... http://www-istp.gsfc.nasa.gov/stargaze/Smartlet.htm (30a) The HARP Project and the Martlet HARP Gun (Photo by Peter Millman on front cover of Sky and Telescope) HARP, for High Altitude Research Project, was a study of the upper atmosphere by instruments shot from a cannon. The project was conducted in the 1960s by scientists of the McGill University in Montreal, who named their vehicle the "Martlet", an old name for the martin bird; the shield of the McGill University in Montreal displays three red martlets. The cannon which propelled the Martlet to the high atmosphere was the creation of Gerald Bull, a Canadian engineer who specialized in the design of cannon. From the US Navy Bull obtained two cannon of the type used by battleships, with a 16-inch (40 cm) caliber, and combined them end-to-end to create a single tube of nearly twice the length. The cannon was mounted on the island of Barbados and fired nearly vertically, over the ocean. To reduce air resistance, the 200-lb Martlet vehicle was given a smaller diameter than 16 inches, with wooden blocks filling the space between it and the barrel. Because the payload and attachments were about 10 times lighter than the regular 16-inch shell, the acceleration was much larger, about 25,000 g: electric circuits had to be encased in plastic to resist the great forces. The peak altitude was extended (by 4 miles), by pumping out most of the air in the gun barrel before the shot. When the cannon fired--its loud bang was heard all over Barbados--the airtight cover over the muzzle was blown away and the Martlet rose into the high atmosphere, to altitudes of 80-90 miles. Unfortunately, cannons are also instruments of war, and Bull's specialization ultimately led to his death. He was assassinated in March 1990 at his home in Brussels, Belgium, apparently by agents of Israel, who had learned that he was helping Iraq build a "super-cannon" to use against Israel (still formally in war with Iraq, though the two share no border), some 300 miles away. Eight pieces of the barrel of that gun, ordered by Iraq in Europe and labeled as chemical industry components, were intercepted in Britain a few weeks afterwards, and other parts were seized by customs officials in Greece and Turkey. Following the "Desert Storm" war of 1991, the allies discovered in Iraq the site of the cannon itself. It was still incomplete, and it pointed towards Israel.
Lol. The Russians were still using cavalry (with horses) in World War II, but that didn't keep them from being our arch-nemesis.
There is a real space race-- it seems the main goal is much like the Soviet/US space race of the 50's and 60's--prestige and military applications. To date only three countries have sent missions to the moon -- the United States, Russia and Japan. India already has a proven satellite launch vehicle and plans to use a modified version of the same rocket, the Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle (PSLV), for the lunar shot. India plans moon mission 'by 2007' CNN/Space NEW DELHI, India -- Indian space scientists believe the moon is within reach for the country's space program and expect to launch an unmanned lunar probe within five years, reports say. According to the Times of India, scientists with the Indian Space Research Organisation (Isro) have sent a report to government officials saying they have the technical capability to launch an expedition to Earth's nearest neighbor by 2007. They say they expect the project to cost in the region of $82.5 million. To date only three countries have sent missions to the moon -- the United States, Russia and Japan. India already has a proven satellite launch vehicle and plans to use a modified version of the same rocket, the Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle (PSLV), for the lunar shot. "Our studies clearly indicate that this country has the technical capability to launch this mission and place a satellite in the lunar orbit for carrying out scientific studies," George Joseph, head of the lunar mission task force, told the Times. He added that several ground projects, including the development of a deep space communications network, would have to be set up first for the project to succeed. Limited value India's space program has been going since 1972 India's space program has been running since 1972, but a mission to the moon would be its first venture into deep space. To date Indian space launches have focused on placing communications, weather and mapping satellites in orbit. Critics of India's lunar ambitions say any such mission would have only limited scientific value and be a waste of cash on a mission primarily designed just to boost national prestige. They say the money used by the project would be better spent on much needed health, educational and other development projects to help millions of desperately poor Indians. However, nationalist politicians are known to favor the project believing a successful lunar mission will galvanize popular feelings in India in the way that the country's nuclear tests did back in 1998. India insists its space program is purely for civilian interests, but defense experts say that developments in Indian rocket technology are also likely to help the military in its goal of producing a homegrown intercontinental ballistic missile. China, which has ambitious plans for manned space exploration, is also thought to have its eye on a lunar mission although it too only plans to use unmanned spacecraft. China and India have long been seen as unofficial rivals for the leadership of the developing world, particularly in the field of scientific developments.
True JuanValdez...but were thay still using them in the last decade? Wouldn't you say, over-all, that we are still ahead of them in the advancement of modern technology?
All I'm saying is that one shouldn't be quick to deprecate the Chinese because they are trailing technologically, especially considering the enormous potential they possess and the rapid growth they've recently shown. In 1943, the Soviets were fighting German tanks with horses; in 1953, we were afraid they'd nuke the hell out of us. We knew we were still ahead and could probably even win a war. But, they were a force to be reckoned with only a scant few years after getting pushed around by nearly everyone. Things can change very quickly.
Woofer I thought you were talking about this HAARP project: The HAARP (High frequency Active Auroral Research Program) transmitter is operated jointly by the U.S. Navy, Air Force and several universities and is located in Gakona, eastern Alaska. (I'd post a link if I could find a decent one) Its an over the horizon communication system particularly for subs, but if your looking for conspiracies this is one of the best projects to look up. Most of the web sites with info on the project deal with mind control, secret gov. this or that, or weather control...it is a weird project without a doubt-- heating the Ionosphere to create a mirror...
