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[from 2014]The return of Kyle Lowry?? Espn article

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by 45souf, Jan 28, 2014.

  1. 45souf

    45souf Member

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    Didn't see this posted anywhere. From ESPN Insider:

    http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/10363419/where-toronto-trade-kyle-lowry-nba

    Finding a trade for Kyle Lowry
    The Raptors are squarely in the playoff mix, but they also have an asset to deal
    Updated: January 28, 2014, 12:49 PM ET

    By Amin Elhassan | ESPN Insider

    We're now just about three weeks from the Feb. 20 trade deadline, which means fans get to enjoy increased chatter about trade rumors, hypothetical or otherwise, but also deal with the annoying fact that many of those trade ideas will serve the interests of one party in terms of actual on-court improvement but not the other. But not all deals have to simply be a case of one team improving the present and the other storing away assets for the future.

    That's what makes the situation in Toronto right now so interesting.

    Last week, I took a look at a possible trade for Omer Asik that maintained some balance between present and future returns. This week, our player of emphasis is Kyle Lowry, a dark-horse All-Star candidate in the Eastern Conference who has led Toronto to a revival since the Dec. 9 trade that sent Rudy Gay to Sacramento for spare parts. Lowry has been very good, but his impending free agency creates a concern about maximizing return on his good play before he could leave in free agency, balanced against the fact that Toronto is squarely in the playoff picture in the East.

    Is getting something for Lowry worth diminishing a playoff run? Maybe it doesn't have to be. Here's a possible trade: Lowry is traded back to the team that traded him to Toronto, the Houston Rockets. Let's break down the player, and the deal.
    Lowry

    The player: Kyle Lowry

    Lowry, who will be 28 in March, is a small but sturdy point guard with a great first step and good basketball instincts. A vocal leader on the floor, Lowry straddles the line between "shoot-first" and "pass-first". He's aggressive in the pick-and-roll, looking to turn the corner and either get to the rim or force the defense to react and collapse, creating passing lanes. An adept passer with either hand, Lowry does a good job of checking off his passing options, and he will seek to find the roll man, weakside fill guys or shooters in the corners. He's not shy about pulling up for the jumper all the way out to the 3-point line and has steadily decreased his diet of shots from midrange over the years (either trying to get to the rim or pulling up from deep) and has made great strides in improving his accuracy outside the arc, shooting a career-high 40 percent this season.

    Lowry's dribble penetration excels because of his compact stature, which allows him to keep his dribble low and tight. Combined with his first step and strong frame, he can get to the rim and finish through contact (shooting 59 percent in the restricted area). It also highlights one of his strong suits as a point guard: He rarely turns the ball over. Lowry's turnover percentage is less than 10 percent, which is remarkable for a player who handles the ball as much as he does and assists on 34 percent of his team's made field goals. Defensively, Lowry has the reputation of a bulldog, but that has subsided somewhat with his larger emphasis on offense. He has active hands on defense, though, and will look to strip the ball low if he's being posted up by a bigger opponent. He's not as committed as he once was to fighting over screens and staying solid on iso defense, choosing to call for switches or allowing his man to blow by him and then trying to poke the ball. But he's a smart defender, and he does a good job of peeling if picked off and cracking back to the big if beaten by his man instead of giving up on the play.

    Lowry is a fiery competitor who doesn't have an off switch, which makes him a very good player but can also rub players and staff the wrong way at times. I saw Lowry play in a semi-organized pickup game at Villanova a few years ago and was equally taken aback by how hard he competed in such an informal environment and how hard he chewed out the volunteer referees on seemingly benign calls.

    The trade fit: Houston


    At 29-17, the Rockets are having a decent season, but decent isn't quite good enough in the hypercompetitive Western Conference, so they find themselves 2.5 games behind the Clippers for home-court advantage and just 3 games ahead of Dallas for the No. 8 seed. They've had issues shoring up their perimeter defense, starting Patrick Beverley for much of the season despite his inconsistent 3-point shooting, a necessity in the Houston offense. The Rockets also have dealt with injuries in their backcourt, with Beverley, James Harden and Jeremy Lin missing time. Adding Lowry would give them a two-way player at point guard who can halt the deluge of dribble penetration from that position while remaining an offensive threat by 3-point shot or dribble.

    It should be noted that Houston already had Lowry and is well aware of his personality quirks. There was friction with coach Kevin McHale toward the end of Lowry's tenure in Houston, but much of this was centered on Lowry's loss of his starting role after returning from a bacterial infection that kept him sidelined for 15 games. After that, Lowry saw a 50 percent reduction in his minutes (from 35 to 18), field goal attempts (12.1 to 6.0) and points per game (15.9 to 7.4). Given how hard Lowry competes, it's easy to see how he would have been taken such a demotion badly, but there's no reason to believe both parties can't let bygones be bygones and move forward, especially with Lowry having the ability to play a significant role in Houston.

    Although the Raptors are deep in the playoff chase, they face a very real dilemma with Lowry's contract status. Because he is an unrestricted free agent, they stand a chance of losing him without compensation, and thus the assumption Toronto will look to move him but also get a good haul in return.

    However, because of that expiring contract, teams are hesitant to give up significant assets for the same risk of losing Lowry, thus limiting what Toronto can expect in return, even if he makes the All-Star team. So, for the Raptors, there are two questions:

    1. Could moving Lowry mean missing the playoffs?
    2. Would we rather get something for him rather than risk getting nothing?

    The trade

    Houston sends to Toronto: Jeremy Lin, Ronnie Brewer, a 2014 second-round pick (via N.Y.), and the less favorable of 2015 second-round pick (via N.Y.) and the 2015 second-round pick owed to Houston from Minnesota (which in turn is the less favorable of Minnesota and Denver second-round picks), plus cash considerations

    Toronto sends to Houston: Kyle Lowry, Austin Daye

    Houston has been trying to jettison Lin's contract for two reasons: The Rockets owe him $8.4 million on the books (which eats into their projected cap space), and he is owed a cash payment of almost $15 million. Despite bouncing back with a stronger statistical season offensively, his defensive struggles make it tough to play him and Harden at the same time because Harden is so limited defensively, as well. Trading Lin frees Houston from financial obligations in the future while bringing back a complete player in Lowry. Daye as a throw-in gives the Rockets a limited liability look at a gifted shooter with length who hasn't been able to make good on his draft-day promise; if he doesn't work out, his contract is guaranteed for only $250,000 next year.

    For the Raptors, Lin's contract can be somewhat problematic. Although the coffers of Maple Leaf Sports and Entertainment can easily foot the cash bill for Lin's balloon payment, the $8.4 million cap hit eats into their cap space for next year. Still, he's a productive point guard who can be an engine for the Toronto offense, particularly with pick-and-roll-heavy sets with Amir Johnson and Jonas Valanciunas. Lin's popularity in Toronto doesn't hurt as a fringe benefit, and he'd also be reuniting with ex-Knicks teammates Steve Novak and Landry Fields.

    Brewer's contract is completely nonguaranteed next year, so he is, in essence, an expiring deal. But the real assets are the second-round picks. Because the draft order in the second round goes by raw record (and not by non-playoff teams followed by playoff teams, as it does in the first round), the Knicks' 2014 second-rounder becomes highly coveted as a possible top-10 pick in the second round (high second-rounders offer the value of comparable talent to the bottom of the first round without the restrictions and fixed costs of a rookie scale deal). Toronto is unlikely to find the first-round pick it seeks for Lowry, so this is the next-best thing. Throw in an additional second-rounder in 2015 who has a chance to be relevant (least favorable of Denver, Minnesota and New York), and some cash to cover for the payroll increase for 2014, and Toronto has a significant haul for Lowry's expiring deal.

    Standing in the way of this deal are the obvious issues with Lin's contract, coupled with Toronto's outsized desires for Lowry's deal. A possible deal sweetener might be the addition of Donatas Motiejunas, a stretch big who would fit well alongside fellow Lithuanian Valanciunas.
     
  2. HeyDude

    HeyDude Contributing Member

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    Getting Lowry back for Lin would be a steal, he would fix so many of our problems. But what if they ask for more? What if they ask for Bev also? What if they want a 1st round pick? Do we do it? Lowry may be worth it...
     
  3. Classic

    Classic Member

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    Love it; Bev to the bench & resign Lowry to a 2/3 yr contract at $7.5 per
     
  4. chow_yun_fat

    chow_yun_fat Contributing Member

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    That's giving up too much for a rental. If it was just Lin/Brewer I say do it.
     
  5. Nook

    Nook Member

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    No it isn't... the Rockets are not really giving up much at all. I don't think the Raptors would do it.
     
  6. 45souf

    45souf Member

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    I wonder if this has any legs to it?
     
  7. AvgJoe

    AvgJoe Contributing Member

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  8. ROXTXIA

    ROXTXIA Contributing Member

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    Unless you sign him to a four-year deal.

    Here's where all the "BUT....BUT, KEVIN LOVE!" comes in, so I'll desist.

    "It's simple. Read...and react. Read...and react. No, that's not the kind of reaction I was looking for..."
     
  9. TheRealist137

    TheRealist137 Member

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    This is a good trade but I'm worried about the relationship with McFail. I feel we should fire McHale then make that trade.
     
    1 person likes this.
  10. Pete the Cheat

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    you still have other moving pieces to make up the difference if 2nd rounders are all you are worried about.

    I would do this in a heartbeat.
     
  11. baller4life315

    baller4life315 Contributing Member

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    Lin, Brewer and 2nd round picks for Lowry and Daye?

    If it were that easy (and painless), we would have already seen a press conference by now.
     
  12. treyk3

    treyk3 Member

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    Yes. In a heart beat.

    Beverly + Asik for Lowry and Fields straight up would work too. I don't think Lowry would want to play off the bench. I don't think Beverly is good enough offensively to run that second unit. I think this trade makes more sense considering the fact that Asik hasn't played for us at all this season and he still has more value. They get rid of Fields contract and he adds some depth to our wing position that we so need. We get a nice 3(b) in Lowry with Parsons as our 3(a)

    Then we could re-sign Camby and wait for Smith to get healthy again.

    Lowry/Lin
    Harden/Fields/Garcia
    Parsons / Casspi / Brewer
    TJones / Dmo
    Howard/ Camby / Smith.
     
  13. shastarocket

    shastarocket Contributing Member

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    Too much about this trade makes sense. Lowry is much more level-headed and won't ruin his next contract by regressing. Plus, even if we don't re-sign him, we can make a run at Bledsoe or IT2 (or roll with Bev/AB/Canaan)
     
  14. duluth111222

    duluth111222 I.D.I.O.T

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    If that trade is on the table, you take it and run away as fast as you can.

    Then mend fences with McFale later. Or find a better coach as many have suggested.
     
  15. thebeardedwon

    thebeardedwon Member

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    lol so much nostalgia on this board. people want adelman back and now they want lowry back?
     
  16. duluth111222

    duluth111222 I.D.I.O.T

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    No it's not. Rox have been buying 2nd picks in the previous drafts. We're basically getting Lowry for Lin and cash. A STEAL even just for a rental.
     
  17. Nook

    Nook Member

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    This.... Morey isn't a fool and knows the Rockets need an upgrade at the point.

    My guess is Toronto is receptive to dealing Lowry but is not happy with the offers and will move him at the deadline, hoping the offers get better as teams have fewer options.
     
  18. acsorelle4

    acsorelle4 Member

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    Giving up three 2nd rounders, with Morey's track record, is like giving up 3 borderline all-stars.
     
  19. GageD

    GageD Member

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    lol clutch strikes again. he mentioned lowry in the podcast with wexler.
     
  20. LabMouse

    LabMouse Member

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    I would do this trade within a min if Toronto is willing to do it. I would add Bev if they insist, but no way to give up Jones.
     

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