Statistical Analysis of Kobe, before and after Battier

exactly. battier is one of the most overlooked, yet elite perimeter defenders in the league. he plays the odds, flowing players into spots or shots they're less efficient in. most of the times it works and sometimes it doesn't, especially when a player gets hot. shane can never "shut down" an offensive player per se, but he sure can make them harm their own team's chances at winning by taking low percentage shots.

this is the luxury of having both shane and ron on the same team. in a game like the one against portland a couple weeks back, shane was assigned to guard roy. roy was hot that night and it seemed like whatever shane would do to take him to his ineffective shooting spots, roy would hit those shots regardless. this is an example when shane doesn't become the "shut down" defender we're used to seeing. shane's defensive game is cerebral, but sometimes when someone he's facing like roy is on fire, playing the odds just won't work. this is where ron steps in. ron is a more instinctual defender, relying on his quick hands, quick feet, and big body. ron gets away with more body checking and fouls because of his hard nosed reputation. ron offered a change of pace to shane's defense, much like a quick running back does to a big bruiser back, and put the clamps on roy.

 

Nobody stops or slows down Kobe, it's dependent on whether or not his jump shot is going down. If it is, I don't care if MJ in his prime is trying to check him. Kobe is going to give you the blues when his jumper and 3 pointer is going.

I think the combo of Shane and Artest can tire out Kobe and force him into more difficult shots better than any other team. I prefer Kobe get 40 plus then let Ariza, Farmer, and Gasol get off.

 

Here's a chart to help in the discussion.

Kobe's scoring efficiency (represented using TS%) each game since the 04/05 season. I put a line in there to represent what is roughly league average scoring efficiency. Battier joined the team in Summer '06. Battier did not play in that 11/09/08 game.

 

good work.

well all that proves is there's LITTLE change. if you take out the 05-06 season, which we were mired with injuries, kobe shot around 37-38% v. us.

like i said, our TEAM defense is just ridiculous since JVG has been here. props to him on that department.

 

According to your stats, he shot 2% worse overall but 2% better on 3s with Battier as his primary defender. That 2% improvement on 3s cancels out some of the worse FG%. He also got to the line a lot more playing against Battier.

Having said that, I think one important thing to consider is Kobe's increased role in the offense beginning in 2004-05 after Shaq left. Kobe wasn't very good against us in 2004-05 (Jackson still with the Rockets) but in 2005-06 (McGrady covering him), Kobe not only scored a lot against us but also did it efficiently. Once Battier arrived, he still scored a lot but did it much less efficiently.

Conclusion: Since Shaq left, Kobe has taken on a bigger role in the offense. In the first year we played the Lakers minus Shaq, Kobe did poorly with Jim Jackson helping on defense but in the 2nd year, covered primarily by McGrady, he had big and efficient games against us. Once Battier arrived, he continued to put up big numbers but did it much less efficiently.

What is our record against the Lakers pre and post-Battier?

 

So, before Battier, his TS% was below league average half of the time.

After Battier arrived, his TS% was below league average two thirds of the time.

I like the time frame of your chart because it seems to show Kobe's performances againust us during the post-Shaq era of the Lakers. This is a good basis for comparison since Kobe's role on the team changed dramatically once Shaq left.

 

Kobe, and his team, was not as good in 04/05 as he/they have been in subsequent seasons. It may have been easier to hold him down defensively that year.

In 8 matchups against Kobe since Battier has been a Rocket, he's held him to below .500 TS% in four games, and pretty near to .500 TS% in two other games. Not to say that scoring efficiency against is the ideal measure for good defense, but that to me looks pretty solid.

 

Well the point wasn't to prove there was big change, but that although Kobe's PPG went up after Battier he was getting them by shooting more and being less efficient, which makes the Lakers lose most of the time.

And little change is pretty good against Kobe. By no means should anyone expect big change against Bryant, regardless of who's guarding him.

 

someone posted it in the other thread, i just remember it was below .500 pre and like 5-3 post.

 

What is our record against the Lakers pre and post-Battier during the same time frame used in the OP?

I know there are several factors that would affect that record but I'd like to see those numbers.

 

Thanks.

 

This.

Is way more important than a sample of Kobe's statistics. It's all about winning.

 

I posted this in the other thread earlier today. This should help add a bit of information to this thread.

 

I am quite sure about that statement. Paul Pierce seems to give Kobe a lot of problems. Id pay to see MJ or Pippen in their prime guard Kobe though.

 

The problem with looking at W-L alone is that there are so many other factors that lead to winning and losing beyond Kobe and Battier.

I'd say it's just another set of numbers to look at to help get a better picture of how effective Battier has been defending Kobe.

Kobe's stats, including efficiency, are probably a better indicator of how well Battier has done since there should be a clear relationship between Kobe's performances and Battier's defense.

Kobe's teammates and the makeup of the Rockets have both changed a lot during the timeframe used in the OP so that would likely have a huge impact on W-L. I wanted to see the comparison of records but I wouldn't put too much weight in it.

 

kobe is kobe. if these stats give battier some props on D, should we clamor for jimmy jackson and wesley for all-nba D too? 24ppg on 41% shooting with less ft attempts ain't bad at all.

 

Good analysis but you also need to consider the effects of Shaq leaving LA after the 03-04 season and how Kobe's role in the offense changed. I have to assume his shot volume increased post-Shaq (not sure) so that would explain part of his increased PPG. It seems pretty clear that Battier has reduced Kobe's efficiency, as you stated.

My guess is that if we had Rudy Gay instead of Battier, Kobe would have scored more against us and would have done it a lot more efficiently. McGrady or Gay would have been destroyed by Kobe.

 

What's the opportunity cost of Battier holding Kobe down to whatever he's holding him down since he arrived? What if we just had a player who let Kobe go off, but he also maybe scored 12-15 ppg and some other stats?

In other words, before I came along, you were scoring 30 ppg on us... after I came, you're scoring 22 ppg. Of course, before I came, the SF was scoring 12ppg and now I'm scoring well... Battier numbers.

And not just with points... how about, yes, you're playing great defense on him Mr. Battier, but now what are his assist numbers? His scoring may have gone down, but have his assists gone up as he passes off thanks to your great D? And if so, what have we gained by getting "nothing" offensively from you?

I'm not saying he's good or bad for us, but it's more complicated than seeing what he scored before and after without taking into account the defenses played (single coverage? double team? zone? team defense? man-on-man?), the offense he was in, and the players that are on the court. Even now you'll probably see Artest and Battier playing him at various times during a game, so a year from now, you can't say that it was simply because of Battier that Kobe did what he did in that game.

 

You said to throw out the 05/06 season. So we're comparing a sample of 8 games against Battier, and 3 games against Jackson/Wesley. And the Lakers were a different team, we were a different team, teams/players go through cold/hot streaks, etc.

I think the Rockets have done a pretty good job against Kobe for quite a while, and the longer they do so the more credit should be given to the guys that are holding him down.