1. Welcome! Please take a few seconds to create your free account to post threads, make some friends, remove a few ads while surfing and much more. ClutchFans has been bringing fans together to talk Houston Sports since 1996. Join us!

The difference between MIA's "slow start" and NYK's slump

Discussion in 'NBA Dish' started by Carl Herrera, Mar 27, 2011.

  1. Carl Herrera

    Carl Herrera Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Feb 16, 2007
    Messages:
    45,153
    Likes Received:
    21,570
    Basically, my argument is that the 9-8 Heat was an elite team and the post-trade Knicks are a .500 team.


    If you want to read why, see the following. Otherwise, you can just go ahead and type "TL:DR" without bothering to read anything or really think about it.

    Preliminarily, I know this could have gone in the Knicks thread, but am making a separate thread because I want to focus more on the methodology by which people measure basketball performance.

    In any case, I've heard people in the media talking about how NY's slump after the Melo trade is similar to the 9-8 start of the Miami Heat and this shows that Amare/Melo/Billups will "turn it around" just like Miami's trio did once they adjust to each other.

    This comparison strike me as invalid because Miami didn't really start the season badly.

    "What do you mean? 9-8 is ass-sucking mediocrity!"

    Well, it isn't when you consider the nature of the 9 and the 8. Miami's early season performance included double digit and even blow-out wins and losses that were mostly close, against good teams or on the road. When your game scoring margins look like this, it typically indicates that your team is better than its record and doesn't have a better record because of bad luck.

    In other words, instead of worrying about why the Heat were only 9-8, we should realize their record was most likely to get better as the season goes on in the absence of other factors like major injuries, major trades or sudden changes in level of play (and record has improved, now standing at 50-22).

    This is a point that the statistical analysis folks have made for a while now. For example, their "power rankings" adjust for margin of victory, strength of schedule, and the # of home vs. Road games. Morey, also, talks about how good teams blow opponents out rather than just win close games. In fact, when the Rockets won a bunch of close games during the middle of last season, Daryl Morey tweeted not about how the "gritty Rockets pull out another victory with their iron will" but about how the Rockets got lucky since close games are 50/50 propositions and if they continue to tempt fate, they'd start losing some games.

    Basketball-reference.com has been tracking some "power ranking" type data during the course of this season: Schedule Adjusted Offensive/Defensive Ratings. They basically take the offensive rating and defensive rating of each team (measure by points scored/allowed per 100 possession), then adjust it based on the factors mentioned above.

    Here's are the numbers as of November 26, 2010, when the Heat was 8-7 (they have numbers done weekly, so I don't have the precise number 2 games late):

    In terms of adjusted "Overall" rating-- i.e. difference between offense and defense ratings, the 8-7 Heat were ranked 3rd overall. This was not an "average" team.

    http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8260

    Now, I don't have the precise numbers for just the post-trade Knicks games, but...

    Here's what they were at right before the trade: ranked 15th overall, with a rating of 0.36, their record was 29-26. A month later, they were still 15th overall, with a rating of 0.42, this is 2 games ago, when they were 35-36. Now, as of March 18, when they were 35-32 and before they lost 6 straight, they were 15th ranked, with a rating of .84.

    So, what does this mean? My interpretation is as follows:

    1. The Knicks were mediocre before the trade and remained mediocre after the trade. Average team was and is average.


    2. Their losses have mostly been close ones, which doesn't hurt them in terms of the power ranking as much even though it still makes people feel bad. Basically, what it says is that the Knicks are an average team that got unlucky recently.

    However, if they continue losing, we may want to consider changing out minds about this.

    3. The team they lost wasn't really much better than the the team they have now.


    [On a side note: Denver improved from 9th ranked with a 2.82 rating to 7th ranked with a 4.74 rating over the month after the trade. Seems that there is significant improvement there and the 12-4 run they went on reflects an real positive change even though that team, too, had to deal with major adjustments to its rotation and personnel.]


    So, in any case while the Miami 9-8 start showed that they were an elite team that just got unlucky in some games, the Knicks recent records show that what they have is a mediocre team that got unlucky. What they have, just like what they had, is a .500 team.
     
    #1 Carl Herrera, Mar 27, 2011
    Last edited: Mar 27, 2011
  2. Shaud

    Shaud Member

    Joined:
    Feb 28, 2008
    Messages:
    18,350
    Likes Received:
    451
    One big difference is Miami at least had some time to gel through training camp. I won't count preseason since Wade was hurt most of preseason.

    NY whole team was dismantled and they lost even more depth with this trade. Until their stars learn to play some defense though they will not turn it around like Miami.
     
  3. Carl Herrera

    Carl Herrera Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Feb 16, 2007
    Messages:
    45,153
    Likes Received:
    21,570
    Denver also turned over a ton of players and they adjusted just fine.

    The Knicks are not as bad as the 0-6 losing streak, but they are no better than a mediocre team, even if they had time for a training camp.
     
  4. t_mac1

    t_mac1 Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Jan 10, 2008
    Messages:
    26,614
    Likes Received:
    211
    it's really simple. the heat wanted to play defense and that is their philosophy. at the beginning, they had to figure each other out offensively and how the roles will play out so that hurt them. but defense was something they all believed in and can fall back on during the tough times.

    the knicks have more than enough talent right now to beat the teams they are losing to. the fact of the matter is they don't play defense. their coach and 2 best players all are offense-oriented. and i don't ever see them being contenders if they don't change that mindset. i mean, if you let the freakin' bobcats and bucks (2 of the worst offensive teams in the L) ring up 100+ points on you, your defense absolutely sucks.

    tmac and yao had worse role players and terrible depth and we were still able to win 50+ games in their first year (despite a slow start in 04-05 b/c for the same reason: offensive roles). but they were able to weather that storm and do well b/c of defense.

    defense wins in this L. and you just have to score enough. it has been proven time and time again.

    EDIT: knicks have scored 105ppg since the melo trade (same # of points they did before the trade). but they are giving up 108ppg since the melo trade (3pts worse than before melo trade). defense has gotten WORSE (didn't know it was possible).
     
  5. BetterThanEver

    BetterThanEver Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Oct 9, 2007
    Messages:
    9,931
    Likes Received:
    189
    It goes both ways. None of the Knicks players that got transplanted to Denver had gone through training camp with the Nuggets players. The Nuggets are 0.700 in the last 10 games, while the Knicks are playing 0.100 ball.
     
  6. t_mac1

    t_mac1 Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Jan 10, 2008
    Messages:
    26,614
    Likes Received:
    211
    to his point, none of the knicks players who got traded are star players. it takes more time for star players to gel with a team than role players (i gave an example with tmac during his first month with us when we started 6-11 and tmac averaged only 20 points; and we all saw the heat struggles with TWO stars added).

    the knicks will play better next year period b/c of the 2 stars alone and development of chemistry. but they don't want to be better, they want to be championship better, which won't happen with that type of defensive effort.
     
  7. Shaud

    Shaud Member

    Joined:
    Feb 28, 2008
    Messages:
    18,350
    Likes Received:
    451
    That's true they did. I thought about that but some teams adjust differently. I don't think the Knicks are elite but I think they will be constantly fighting from 4-6 East for the next few years.
     
  8. BetterThanEver

    BetterThanEver Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Oct 9, 2007
    Messages:
    9,931
    Likes Received:
    189
    Actually, the Heat were winning shortly after the trade. The Knicks were winning games after the trade! They defeated the Miami Heat on the road, New Orleans Hornets, etc. They got worse after playing together longer.

    Here are other superstar trades.
    Pau Gasol and Lakers
    Chauncey Billups and Nuggets(traded after only a few games)
    Allen/Garnett and Celtics

    We can even use the Rockets as an example, Clyde Drexler and the 1995 NBA Champs!
     
  9. HTown_TMac

    HTown_TMac Member

    Joined:
    May 10, 2006
    Messages:
    4,530
    Likes Received:
    1,518
    The problem lies with Superstars wanting to play their game vs. the coach wanting the players to play in the concept already established.

    This is why Denver has played so well.. Role players playing their roles, and doing what is needed to be done. In NY, you have Melo wanting to do what he's always done, Amar'e wanting to do what he was doing before Melo, and the coach wanting everyone to play his type of ball. I didn't even mention the amount of defense being played..
     
  10. cheke64

    cheke64 Member

    Joined:
    May 12, 2009
    Messages:
    23,652
    Likes Received:
    15,027
    Miami issue- 2 superstars that are excellent slashers but don't shoot consistently and post up.

    NYK issue- 2 superstars that are excellent shooters but don't slash to the basket consistently and post up.


    The superstars are competing against each other rather than complementing each other. Last time I watched both teams played they havent fixed the problem.
     
  11. t_mac1

    t_mac1 Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Jan 10, 2008
    Messages:
    26,614
    Likes Received:
    211
    they were winning off on a high. that was short-lived.

    the trades you mentioned were bringing in 2nd fiddle stars to those teams. the lakers were still kobe's team and so on. clyde drexler knew hakeem was the better player. it's easier to fit in when you know your role.

    with melo and amare, it's really not that simple. like i said with tmac and yao: who was #1 and #2? tmac deferred initially so much that it hurt us to a 6-11 record.

    plus, the knicks don't play defense, which make matters worse.

    they'll be much better next year trust me on that. but they're still not a championship caliber team until they play defense. if they did, they would be able to weather this bad stretch.
     
  12. peleincubus

    peleincubus Member

    Joined:
    Oct 26, 2002
    Messages:
    25,400
    Likes Received:
    13,270
    Amare can't slash to the basket. Right...
     
  13. BetterThanEver

    BetterThanEver Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Oct 9, 2007
    Messages:
    9,931
    Likes Received:
    189
    That's just another way of saying NYK's slump is not the same as Miami's "slow start". They just aren't that good.
     
  14. rockets934life

    rockets934life Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Nov 11, 2007
    Messages:
    15,312
    Likes Received:
    249
    Denver has done well since the trade but also consider two important factors as they did not trade for a star demanding touches and they received some VERY nice role players that fit perfectly while only losing Melo and Billups. It's much easier to get a group of role players to play together then trying to get two stars, each guy wants his touches and believes he is the man. Denver already had a legit center, PF, PG and SF in place so their rotation was nowhere near as effected.

    The biggest difference between Miami's three and NY's two is defense...Miami plays it while NY doesn't. Defense can take a mediocre team and make it good. In Miami case, it kept them afloat and even now, they rarely lose a blowout, when they lose it is execution at the end of games not defensive breakdowns.

    NY needs an offseason and big men, they just aren't very good or complete.
     
  15. pmac

    pmac Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Oct 10, 2007
    Messages:
    7,926
    Likes Received:
    2,492
    We could actually simplify this to 3 thing:

    1. The heat have Lebron James and Dwyane Wade. You aren't going against the grain by saying Melo, while a good player, isn't close to that level. He isn't and yes the majority including the media knows this.

    2. The Knicks lost much of their depth with the trade. Right now they're like Amare, Melo, and Billups with a bunch of players who aren't really playoff caliber role players

    3. Melo and Billups don't really fit the Dantoni system. This is bad for a couple of reasons. A truly great wing should probably be versatile enough to play in any system. And, dantoni's system has never really proven to be successful. Is it worth keeping him around, limiting Melo's production, for a style of basketball that has never won a championship?

    Neither of Amare and Melo are all time greats like Lebron, KG, Kobe, or Duncan. They can't contend without solid role players. This could change if they somehow acquire Chris Paul, Dwight Howard, or Deron Williams. People enjoy seeing Melo fail and likely see this as an opportunity to prove he's some sort of cancer that hurts his team but it's more accurate to say he's only about as effective as the players he was traded for combined (felton,chandler, and gallinari). Not that bad, just not Lebron.
     
  16. pmac

    pmac Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Oct 10, 2007
    Messages:
    7,926
    Likes Received:
    2,492
  17. rolyat93

    rolyat93 Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Dec 5, 2010
    Messages:
    6,354
    Likes Received:
    460
    Took Miami about 20 games to at least start to get rolling, The Knicks have had almost 20 this year now but no training camps, NYK has 2 one-sided stars, and nobody else. The Heat have two superstars and one one-sided rstar, and nobody else. The difference is that they were traded mid-season and have a much much weaker team.
     
  18. rockets4llday

    rockets4llday Member

    Joined:
    Dec 18, 2010
    Messages:
    110
    Likes Received:
    3
    Wat if the got Dwight Howard next year?
     
  19. MambaJoe

    MambaJoe Member

    Joined:
    Jul 11, 2009
    Messages:
    2,294
    Likes Received:
    104
    The difference between Heat and Knicks is the Heat are a much better defensive team and they want to play defense unlike the Knicks. Plus the Heat big 3 is overall better.

    Amare is a better player than Bosh but not by a huge margin. Wade and Lebron James are both are one of the top players in the league. Melo is a good player but he is not anywhere near the level of James and Wade. Both James and Wade alone can take over a playoff series. I just don't see Melo or Amare being able to do so like the guys in Miami.

    The Knicks have 2 stars on their roster. But they will never be as good as the Heat because their star players are not as good as the stars in South Beach. The Yao Ming and Tmac combo is actually better than the Melo and Amare combo. Tmac and Yao together are better than Amare and Melo and even so, the Rockets were never really successful. Tmac in his prime, is a much better player than Melo is today. He is a gifted player with amazing passing ability. That is the reason why Tmac was so dominant. Yao is pretty much unstoppable when he's on the low post. But even that, the Rockets never really did any damage.

    I look at the Knicks and think of how the ROckets used to be with Yao and Tmac. They will have their successes but mostly disappointments. Those 2 aren't good enough to compete with the big powers like the Heat, Celtics and even the Bulls. The Knicks will have their flashes, they will score lots of points but also give up a lot of points.
     
  20. MambaJoe

    MambaJoe Member

    Joined:
    Jul 11, 2009
    Messages:
    2,294
    Likes Received:
    104
    It dont matter if the Heat needed like 20 games to start rolling and gelling together. The Knicks will need time to start rolling too. To me, the Heat struggling isn't a concern because their potential is too great.

    A lot of people believes the Knicks will start rolling together and be successful like the Heat. They will be pretty good, but not as good as the Heat simply because their star players isn't as good as the players in South Beach.
     

Share This Page

  • About ClutchFans

    Since 1996, ClutchFans has been loud and proud covering the Houston Rockets, helping set an industry standard for team fan sites. The forums have been a home for Houston sports fans as well as basketball fanatics around the globe.

  • Support ClutchFans!

    If you find that ClutchFans is a valuable resource for you, please consider becoming a Supporting Member. Supporting Members can upload photos and attachments directly to their posts, customize their user title and more. Gold Supporters see zero ads!


    Upgrade Now