[2015] Hurricane Season

Them predicting a quiet year actually makes me more nervous.

 

Exactly what I was thinking. Just moved back to SE Texas and now we're all going to die.

 

gawd dengit. already?

 

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Houston, we'll have to keep a close eye on this. First computer tracks send it our way. Hurricane Hunters fly Monday. <a href="http://t.co/DkbXeoZ5P5">pic.twitter.com/DkbXeoZ5P5</a></p>&mdash; Travis Herzog (@HerzogWeather) <a href="https://twitter.com/HerzogWeather/status/609743998526189568">June 13, 2015</a></blockquote>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Keep an eye on this, <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Houston?src=hash">#Houston</a>! Tropical disturbance now has a 50% chance of developing into <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Bill?src=hash">#Bill</a>. <a href="http://t.co/JnbbbWk8Tu">pic.twitter.com/JnbbbWk8Tu</a></p>&mdash; Travis Herzog (@HerzogWeather) <a href="https://twitter.com/HerzogWeather/status/609785638716444672">June 13, 2015</a></blockquote>
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A wave down in the western Caribbean has been designated 91L and so far models are showing it heading towards the upper Texas coast probably as a weak TD/TS. The biggest problem is the rain we could see with a system like that. This definitely bears watching as we don't need another round of flooding rains.

http://i.imgur.com/svJ7ztW.png

 

The rain may be a lot heavier than the WPC is forecasting if this thing does become a weak tropical storm.

 

Anything west of the Houston area will bring the brunt of the storm into our area. This will cause flooding rains if this scenario ends up happening. I think tomorrow afternoon/evening things will start to come into place if this storm does, in fact, hold together and get into the Gulf. There is an upper level low pressure shearing the storm right now and pushing all of the convection off to the east. The models have this ULL moving SW and weakening. Things may get interesting tomorrow night if this storm does get its act together over the Gulf tomorrow afternoon.

 

from earlier today:

http://blog.chron.com/weather/2015/...s-the-gulf-of-mexico-now-moving-toward-texas/

 

Just want to clarify. An unexpected extreme intensification toward a Cat 1 by landfall is impossible, correct?

 

What are the gulf Temps rn? Early season, it's not hot enough I think

 

Not impossible but highly improbable.

Edit: Recon is down there right now trying to find a closed surface low. Based on what my untrained eye is seeing it appears that shear has relaxed a little bit and convection is firing where I think the "center" is. It seems to be moving WNW at a rather brisk pace. We will know real soon what recon finds.

Edit2: Recon found a weak low level circulation but they deemed it too weak to classify as a TD. The convection continues to fire at the center though and I think we will see a TD by morning.

 

Please don't hit Southeast with all the rain

 

I have a feeling that this thing is gonna slide West of us and not impact us all that much.

 

Im heading out tuesday morning to New Orleans and then Ill be in Destin. Vacation planned earlier to avoid this

 

I'm surprise no one has said to evacuate Katy yet.

 

That's how it would impact us more.. east is where you want it to go