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Statistical Comparisions for Kyle Lowry

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Carl Herrera, Jul 29, 2011.

  1. Carl Herrera

    Carl Herrera Contributing Member

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    There has been a great deal of discussion about what the Rockets really have in Kyle Lowry: A potential star, an average-ish player, or career backup?

    So, I decided to see which NBA players has had seasons that are statistically similar to Kyle Lowry's 2010/2011 season using the "Player Season Finder" feature in basketball-reference.com.

    I. Method

    To begin, since the Player Season Finder limits the number of criteria you can put into it, I needed to find a few statistics that more or less defines what Lowry did last season. Here's what I come up with:

    1. Offensive Rebound/36 mintes: Lowry was an excellent offensive rebounder for a small guard, averaged 1.3 OReb/36 minutes. So, here I set the miminum OReb/36 min to 1.0.

    2. Height: Since I was talking about his rebounding prowess for a "small guard," I am setting the maximum height to 6 foot 2. I also thought since we are talking about players that are comparable to Lowry, we might as well find guys his own size. (I'll discuss what happens when you relax the height criteria later).

    3. Assists/36 minutes: Lowry was a more than decent floor general, averaging 7 assists per 36 minutes. So, I set the minimum Ast/36 min 6.5.

    4. Points/36 minutes: Lowry had a great month of March as fars as points scored, and was solid during the rest of the season, ending with an average of 14.2 pts/36 minutes, I am setting the minum pts/36 min to 13.0.

    5. 3 Pointers Made/36 minutes: One thing that happened last season was that Lowry made a marked improvement on his 3pt shooting, having shot a higher % than ever and made more than he did in all prior seasons combined. He hit 1.8 per 36, though one might argue he was simply hot (for the whole season). So, I am setting the minimum to 1.0 3Pter Made/36 min, basically weeding out guys who didn't really shoot the 3 at a solid level.


    Now, there are probably other stats: ORtg, WS, Assist%, 3pt%, etc. that are arguably relevant, or more relevant than the above, and you can play around with the program with whatever parameter you want, but I think the above are a decent set of criteria:


    II. Result:



    Anyhow, the player-seasons fitting the above criteria are the following:

    http://bkref.com/tiny/Vronz

    19 player-seasons in total, I am weeding out 7 of them for not having played significant enough minutes (1500/season) leaving us with 12 "real" player-seasons, several names appeared multiple times, so the guys had these 12 player-seasons are (in alphabetical order):

    Kenny Anderson
    Darrell Armstrong (2 times)
    Mookie Blaylock (3 times)
    Raymond Felton
    Allen Iverson
    Mark Jackson
    Kyle Lowry
    Damon Stoudamire
    David Wesley


    III. Kyle Lowry; or, The Modern Mookie Blaylock?

    So, who among this group most reminds me of Lowry? I think it's Mookie Blaylock (assuming, of course, Lowry keeps up the performance or get even better)

    First, Mookie and D.Armstron are the two guys with multiple seasons on the list. However, Mookie had those seasons at an age more similar to Lowry (he was 25, 26 and 27 and in his 4th, 5th and 6th seasons, and Lowry was 24 and in his 5th season). Armstrong was in his 30s during the seasons he had on the list-- he wasn't in the NBA until age 26, a rather rare kind of career.

    Also, like Blaylock, Lowry was a "young veteran" on at team that was at least .500 or above while several of these guys were young players putting up numbers on rather bad teams. Some of these guys (Jackson, Iverson, etc.) also just have different skill sets and physical features.

    One more thing: Both Lowry and Blaylock are known as good defenders for their position. Lowry's steal numbers don't match Blaylock's, though.

    Anyway, do you think this is a decent enough comparison? If not, what's a better one?

    If Lowry stays on the "Mookie Path," I'd be pretty happy. Blaylock made only 1 All Star team, when the Hawks won 57 games one season, but he had multiple statstically similar seaosns and had a grunge band named after him.


    Side Note:

    Now if you relax the height criteria to include guys 6'5'' and under, here's the list:

    http://bkref.com/tiny/tCK1j

    The names added include 4 seasons each from J. Kidd and G. Payton, we also got 2 seasons of B. Davis, and 1 from Steve Francis and 1 from Jeff Hornacek. Now you can always make the height even higher and get guys like Penny Hardaway and Lebron, but I don't think anyone is arguing Kyle Lowry is similar to these guys...​
     
    #1 Carl Herrera, Jul 29, 2011
    Last edited: Jul 29, 2011
    1 person likes this.
  2. YaosDirtyStache

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    I have a Mookie Blaylock autographed card. Interested?
     
  3. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member

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    Blaylock was a little too trigger happy from the perimeter, as I recall. There were some games last year where I thought the same about Lowry. I'm hoping Lowry can find that right balance between attacking the basket and keeping the opponents honest next season.
     
  4. Rockets4279

    Rockets4279 Member

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    I think at worst he'll remain consistent. It appears, like last season when he started working early, just like this season again, he has a really good chance to improve and reach Mookies level which i can certainly see. Lowry is good at defending both guard positions. He's like Chuck in the post taller guards like Kobe have a hard time scoring in the post on him. And i can remember Adelman sicking Lowry on 2 guards. If he can stay consistent getting to the line and knocking down trey's his scoring numbers will improve to about 15-16 ppg. What i like about Lowry is he's a competitor and bring his energy every night and will fight to win. That's what you need from the point position these days.
     
  5. RudyTBag

    RudyTBag Contributing Member
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    Lowry's strengths aren't in his stats, even though his stats were getting pretty damn good last year. He's a no stats allstar with decent stats...
     
  6. redhotrox

    redhotrox Contributing Member

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    I want Lowry to keep up his play from after the trade deadline. I believe he was something like 18/8/4, along with his usual good defense and decision making. Next season will be his year to do it long term and prove he’s a GREAT player, not just a good one.
     
  7. rocketboyz1

    rocketboyz1 Member

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    Kyle lowry is a star............I would pick him up b4 I would westbrook!!!
     
  8. Rocket 914

    Rocket 914 Member

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    CP3, D-Rose, Deron, Westbrook, Wall, Curry, Holiday, Rondo, Tony Parker

    These are the only PG's I'd prefer to have over Lowry for the next 4-5 years. I have excluded Nash/Kidd/Miller/Devin Harris/Baron Davis/Mo Williams for the obvious age/injury concerns.

    Brandon Jennings/Mike Conley/Darren Collison/Ty Lawson are not as tough, stable and consistent as Lowry.
     
  9. daspydamayn

    daspydamayn Member

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    i think hes a good starter with no glaring weaknesses to his game. and at the money he's making, he's a STEAL
     
  10. t_mac1

    t_mac1 Contributing Member

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    Conley is very good man. As his jumper keeps improving, he'll be pretty damn good. I think he and Lowry are around the same level right now. Conley didn't have the fortune of playing under an offensive mastermind like Adelman either. I think you should group him in the 2nd tier of PGs.

    Through 81 games, Conley put up 14, 3, 7, 2 steals on 44% fg.


    Exactly. For our team with quite a few scoring options, he's very good. He does have a glaring weakness and that's his jumpshot. He had a great month shooting 47%, but the rest of the year, he hovered around 41-42%. He doesn't take a lot of shots, but as defenses load up on him since he's a full-time starter now, he'll be better suited if he can improve his jumper. And with his work ethic, I expect a more consistent J next year.

    And yes, he's a steal at that price.
     
  11. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member

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    He had two great shooting months (December, March), 1 good shooting month (February), 2 bad shooting months (November and January).
     
  12. t_mac1

    t_mac1 Contributing Member

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    He had a great 3pt shooting month in December (he shot 45% overall, which is good).

    He was lights out for his standards in March with 48% overall, 43% on 3s, 86% on FTs, and 20 points overall.

    As long as he can stay around 44-45%, I'll be extremely happy. He was a much better 3pt shooter than I anticipated, which I was very proud of.
     
  13. jaybiddyforeal

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    I think you have to put ast/to ratio in as one of those search categories. Aside from his improved shooting, that stat was the one that stood out in my mind.

    -James
     
  14. TheFreak

    TheFreak Contributing Member

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    He wasn't hot for the whole season. He was hot in December and March. He was actually pretty streaky for the year on the whole.
     
  15. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member

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    Even if you discard his 3-point shooting in December and March, he still shot 32% on 3s. That's not particularly good, but its still better than what he shot in any full season prior to last.
     
  16. roslolian

    roslolian Member

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    Defense and all around presence don't show up on stats, and that's both things Conley doesn't really have so saying Conley and Lowry are around the same level is pretty laughable to me.

    Also Conley is making 30% more than Lowry is, doesn't his contract average to 9M a year?
     
  17. t_mac1

    t_mac1 Contributing Member

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    Conley is a decent defender (the guy gets 2 steals, and has the quickness to stay in front of his guys--just lacks the strength) and he's a very good floor general for the Grizzlies. The ball is basically in his hands to make all the decisions for the most part, and his decision making is very sound (as seen in the playoffs). That guy still has a lot of room to improve, and he's gradually doing it. I think the Grizz are satifised with their PG for the foreseeable future.

    You're right that Lowry is a better steal in terms of contract. Conley isn't worth that much. That contract is for a borderline all-star PG, which he won't be.

    Considering the types of shots he takes, he still shoots a low percentage. Hopefully, that fg% goes up to the 45% range and he'll be good to go. 42% is low for a 3rd scoring option behind Scola and Martin. And Adelman pushed for a faster paced offense.
     
    #17 t_mac1, Jul 30, 2011
    Last edited: Jul 30, 2011
  18. CXbby

    CXbby Member

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    You are talking to a guy who's basketball knowledge starts and ends with Points, Rebounds, Assists, and FG%. Oh, and let's not forget Steals to represent defense.

    In his world, Stromile Swift is the exact same player as Shane Battier. Both 10 points 5 rebounds guys after all.
     
  19. t_mac1

    t_mac1 Contributing Member

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    Hey, "LOOK AT ME!!! I'm the guy who predicts the future and guarantees Marcus Morris will be the best player on a championship team!!! I just know it!!! BET ME!!!"

    And so idiotic to compare Swift and Battier when one is a PF and one is a SF. In this case, a basic stat-line would have differentiate both. 5 rebounds for a PF is pathetic. But I expect that from you.

    Furthermore, if those stats usually aren't sufficient to describe a player, but they are the main stats used in every discussion by 99% of the NBA heads, including coaches/commentators/analysts when they first discuss players.

    Also, Conley and Lowry are very similar players, even if you like to use what you called "ADVANCED STATS." Why don't you try looking it up and see how similar they are?
     
    #19 t_mac1, Jul 30, 2011
    Last edited: Jul 30, 2011
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  20. jordnnnn

    jordnnnn Member

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    1 person likes this.

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