We do know that the Astros were still willing to get him signed... just with the hedge that they'd be able to get Marshall as a backup. We do not know that short UCL's lead to tears... just that they are hard to fix if they do. The ligament was not torn at the time of the physical, hence my statement that he was "healthy", and hence Aiken's camp leaking all the other physicals he had where they said he was "healthy". We also do know that any pitcher (Appel included) is prone to a UCL problem.... its become the nature of being a young pitcher, and the success rate of the surgery (presuming normal anatomy) is to the point that teams do not necessarily stay away from players because of it (see first round picks last year).
We actually don't know either about UCLs. We have no idea. All we have is a quote that says "He may have some, but not much." That was the only quote. Everything else was from Close/Aiken just saying that he was healthy and from speculation and people not even able to quote an anonymous source. That was the one real quote we got.
Also, the fact that other doctors probably "reassured" Aiken that his ligament was not torn probably kept his resolve to not sign at the lower offer... but what none of those doctors could tell him was that if he had a higher chance of tearing the ligament to begin with. If they had, he likely takes the lower offer. Fact of the matter is, they just don't know... but maybe now more research/case reports will come filtering out that in-fact a short UCL does lead to a higher risk of injury... and with the potential complication of fixing it (until a new TJ procedure gets innovated for this sort of anatomy), these players could be naturally selected to never become big-league pitchers (presuming they all continue to get screening MRI's on physicals).
Correct... UCL length/appearance cannot predict whether a player will eventually need TJ surgery. It was the risk that if the ligament cannot be reconstructed well... would Aiken be the same sort of dominant pitcher (and unless he's going to develop a knuckleball like Dickey did with a similar scenario, the answer is pretty obvious).
Actually, maybe it does. We don't know. We don't know anything about it. All we know is that it concerned our team physician, who may have believed it was only a matter of time before he got hurt, and/or had concerns over his ability to heal properly.
It definitely came from the Astros, but if I'm remembering the timeline correctly, the leaks about the tiny/non-existent UCL came after Casey Close went nuclear in the Rosenthal article.
This is the leak article http://blog.chron.com/ultimateastro...dical-evaluation-rules/#22102103=0&24048101=0
I agree with this completely TJ is typically a year long recovery, the Astros chose I not sign him and take a pick a year later Time wise there isn't a significant difference in when we add a significant prospect to the system. So it surely was more than "knowing" he would have TJ
There's been studies/reports done on MRI appearances of UCL's and ability to predict future pitching injuries... and they're mainly inconclusive. So, until its proven with enough case data/evidence, its hard for teams to extrapolate that... hence why the Astros were still willing to sign Aiken. So, you're right... we don't know... but in this particular case had the other physicians Aiken saw suspected that he would soon be hurt (not just the "if you're hurt, its hard to fix" scenario that still carried an "if"), they'd likely have taken a deal. In the end, Aiken's not taking the deal is a direct reflection of what he was told/advised... and in the end, its why he's the biggest loser in this whole ordeal.
At Minimum for Luhnow and Astros, this TJ injury after 13 pitches completely vindicates them for not signing Aiken for $6.5M, or even the final $5M offer they did make The fact they got a 2015 #2 pick as compensation makes the decision to not sign him a no-brainer victory for Luhnow You can still question every decision he made leading up to taking Aiken #1 ... I never understood passing on a proven college LH starter like Rodon, with an 80-grade slider ready for Majors by 2015, in favor of a an uproven HS LH starter anyway But once the pick was made, and now (with the benefit of hindsight) knowing it would only take 13 pitches to require TJ surgery, there is no question not signing Aiken was the best and only path to try and salvage the situation Anybody here really want to pay this kid $6.5M, beginning in summer 2014, just to rehab from TJ for the next 2 years? Even if everything goes perfectly with rehab, and he comes back completely healthy, that won't happen until late 2016 now At that point, he would be a 19-yr-old, coming off TJ, with zero pro experience, having not played any ball for over 2 years, and looking at another 2-3 years minimum developing as a prospect in the lower minors Do any of these ESPN a$$-hats really still think it was the 'right' move to pay this kid $6.5M just for the chance he might be ready to help Houston win games by 2018 at the earliest? As Houston fans, let me put it to the board another way: Think the Texans wouldn't be ecstatic to have the #2 overall pick in 2015 (and a chance to draft Mariota) if all they had to do was NOT pay JD Clowney a dime as the 2014 #1 overall pick to do nothing but essentially rehab a well-concealed pre-draft injury and red-shirt his entire rookie season??? BoB and RSmith wouldn't even hesitate if today Tennessee called and offered the #2 pick for Clowney straight-up What they are going through now with Clowney is an almost exact preview of where the Astros would be today if they had signed Aiken If given a 'do-over', like Luhnow has with the comp pick, the Texans would gladly take it, and be in a much better position for it I'm just grateful the Astros are run by someone MUCH smarter than RSmith, the Aiken camp, or any of the supposed baseball 'expert' writers who have been hammering Luhnow and the Astros for almost a year now Like I said, you can still question picking Aiken last year, and I would still take Rodon over the 2015 #2 pick every time But once the pick was made, and the Astros got their 1st real look at his elbow, the decision to not sign Aiken was the only viable option left It would be nice to see at least 1 of the clowns crushing us last summer have the stones to man-up and eat some crow by admitting they were wrong and Luhnow was right In the end they were all just pawns who were fed nothing but lies and propoganda by this 'poor kid' and his family/agent as they tried to use the media as leverage to manipulate the Astros into signing 'damaged goods' To Aiken and his family: Good luck getting anywhere near $5M in the draft after not playing baseball for over 2 years and coming off very recent TJ surgery Good luck paying for all of your own rehab out of pocket, and with the training staff at IMG Academy Good luck hiding your medical records and using the media to wage a PR war on your behalf during your next attempt to negotiate (extort) a new deal with whatever team takes a chance on you in the draft I find it endlessly amusing that in 2012 Luhnow passed on 'sure-thing' Appel for the 'cheap' option in Correa at #1 This enabled the Astros to play the same $ pool games that netted them McCullers and Ruiz At the time, these same 'experts' had nothing but praise for Luhnow's approach to offer below-slot to the #1 pick and use the savings to pick up 2 more top-30 players in later rounds Now, in 2014, he does the same thing, and Luhnow is portrayed as the devil incarnate?!?!? IMO, the only difference? 1 - Correa was not hiding an injury 2 - Correa did not have an army of backers fighting a PR war through the media on his behalf to get 'full compensation' Instead, the poor kid from Puerto Rico accepted the lower initial offer without hesitation, started his career immediately, and is now knocking on the door to lock down SS in Houston for the next decade as a bona-fide superstar prospect Maybe if the rich kid from San Diego did the same, he could be rehabbing his arm with the best medical care in the world, and a lifetime of financial security in the bank Well played, Aikens .... you sure showed Luhnow how to play hardball
Rosenthal article was published on same day, at 2:28am. Drellich article doesn't have a time stamp that I can see, but I remember it coming out during the middle of the day. Just reinforces my belief that the Rosenthal article dropped with Close and anonymous "industry sources," so the Astros retaliated the same day by feeding info to Drellich.
I'm an idiot. If you actually READ the Drellich article, he references the Rosenthal article several times. Rosenthal article clearly came first.
Boy are the Astros gonna feel stupid when the "complications" of his surgery result in Aiken coming back throwing 105 mph with little or no wind up.
I thought the Rosenthal article only mentioned that there was something in the physical, but didn't get specific. Hard to remember, not that it matters at this point. Either way, we didn't have a lot to go on. Only Aiken can give us the full story, and that will never happen.
And if he did, the people on the side of that story he portrayed would trust him as being truthful...but I'm not sure people on the other side of the story would. It is tough to know what to believe from a GM or a player when discussing contracts.
Rosenthal article didn't give specifics, but it had several quotes from Casey Close, anonymous doctors, and rival execs that intimated that the Astros were doing something improper. The thinly veiled message was that the Astros had fabricated a medical issue or were treating a routine idiosyncrasy as an "abnormality." But yeah, we'll never get the full story here. What frustrates me is that guys like Aiken and Vogelsang are quick to say "you'll never believe what happened," but refuse to give any actual details. It essentially insulates them from criticism. And the Astros won't talk, of course. There's far more for them to lose than gain by talking.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>How <a href="https://twitter.com/JakeNix33">@JakeNix33</a> became first player to be drafted, pass physical, agree to deal—and not sign, and what he's doing now <a href="http://t.co/sBfmCNivki">http://t.co/sBfmCNivki</a></p>— Stephanie Apstein (@stephapstein) <a href="https://twitter.com/stephapstein/status/582952267843792898">March 31, 2015</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
I hope for Drelich's, and Twitter's sake that Nix (and eventually Aiken) go on to become HOF pitchers... it was obviously a debacle that both the team and the players want to put behind them. Lets hope the beat-writers soon do the same as well.
Thats kinda like saying my ex employer will be sorry when I hit the lottery. Not likely but possible.
