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The Warriors have a 88% chance of Winning

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Air Langhi, May 18, 2015.

  1. mkahanek

    mkahanek Member

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    Man I hope the rockets stun the world so every one of these media meat socks shut their c*ck washers.
     
  2. Rokman

    Rokman Member

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    I heard the Rockets have a 71.4% chance of winning.

    My source is me.
     
  3. SemisolidSnake

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    Eh. Vegas is good at picking elections, because betting on the actions of large groups of dumb voters is pretty predictable stuff. Betting on the overall outcome of only 7 games in this year's Western conference? With the Rockets, a basically unpredictable team, playing? After what they just did to the Clippers? 88%?

    That's the equivalent of narrowing down a multiple choice question to two answers, having no clue what the real answer is, and just penciling in the bubble next to words you recognize vs. words you don't. Doesn't mean you're right in the slightest, but might as well fill in some answer.
     
  4. Air Langhi

    Air Langhi Contributing Member

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    The casino wants to make a profit. The P(A|B)=1 the Casino is Pricing P(A|B)=1.05. That .05 represents their profit. The Casino is simply trying to make the bets on both sides so it can make money. They are not in the business of trying to pick winners and loser. The betting community thinks the warriors have 88% chance of winning.

    A quick example:
    bet on GS 880
    bet on Hou 170

    If Houston wins the payout is 170/100*475 = 807.5+170= 977.5
    If GS wins payout is 880/750*100 = 117.3+880 = 997

    No matter who wins they make money.

    If they don't get money in a certain way then you could end up with the following:

    750 on gs
    100 on rockets

    If GS wins they make $0
    if rockets win they make $275.
     
  5. B-Bob

    B-Bob "94-year-old self-described dreamer"

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    Got it! Thanks.

    So Vegas really thinks:
    GS 85.5%
    HOU 14.5%
    (removing 2.5% from each for the vig)
     
  6. chenjy9

    chenjy9 Numbers Don't Lie
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    This is one of those times where Houston Rockets fans go "F--- Math!"
     
  7. daywalker02

    daywalker02 Member

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    We all have won and lost on sports
     
  8. got em COACH

    got em COACH Contributing Member

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    Feeling good abut this series. A win win situation as a die hard rockets fan and a gambler

    [​IMG]
     
  9. HouStu_Rocket

    HouStu_Rocket Member

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    Pretty unrealistic odds. That goes to show you that the more popular team will always be favorites in Vegas. Series hasnt started and we haven't even gotten to see any semblance of an appropriate match up between these two teams. Its essentially a coin flip at this point
     
  10. PJ86

    PJ86 Member

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    That gives us an 88% chance at an upset, I like those odds!
     
  11. Bäumer

    Bäumer Contributing Member

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    Only a 12% chance at winning...

    [​IMG]
     

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