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McGrady & Yao: Enough to Make Rockets NBA Title Contenders?

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Tango, Jul 22, 2006.

  1. Tango

    Tango Contributing Member

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    Hi Gang: This is part 2 in a series of studies I've been doing. Refer to the Team Efficiency Ratings thread for some of the explanation regarding the PPP / Offensive Rating (ORtg) stats used for setting up this next stage of studies.

    EDIT: ADDED A SHORT SUMMARY SECTION:
    SUMMARY:
    Here's the cliff notes version for those who want to avoid the details below:

    Looking at the 14-5 streak last season, the 19 game stretch where Tmac and Yao were playing together along with the supporting cast we find some surprising results:

    #1: Yao and Tmac in the game didn't increase the overall offensive efficiency of the team. The reason the team was able to go on the 14-5 streak was because they were able to score on avg. 3.3 pts per game more than their opponents. The impact of Yao and Tmac playing together was not on the offensive end but their impact on the defensive end. (To be honest I'm still totally floored by this.)

    #2: During the 14-5 streak, though going on an impressive .737 winning percentage, the Rockets still ranked lower than any of the WC conference teams that advanced past the 1st round. This even with a TMac and Yao together for 19 games. Going by offensive efficiency rating the Rockets would have equaled NO/OK Hornets. Going by pt margin rating the Rockets woud have equaled the Memphis Grizzlies.

    #3: Basis #2 above if Yao and TMac were healthy for most of the season with last year's roster the Rockets still would not have been a contender in the playoffs but probably would have exited the 1st round.



    Full Analysis:

    One of the questions that I have been interested in is just how strong of a team the Rockets are with Tmac and Yao on the floor together. Last season was arguably an injury plagued season where Yao and Tracy only played roughly 25% of entire season together while relatively healthy (along with a healthy supporting cast) and what most folks attribute the poor performance of the team to last year.

    This has given rise to some optimism that if Tmac and Yao were both healthy that they would have been sufficient enough to take the Rockets deep into the playoffs to contend for a title. Another reason for this optimism is the record of the Rockets during the 19 games that Yao and McGrady played together between Jan 30, 06 - Mar 8, 06 where the Rockets went on a blistering 14-5 win/loss streak (.737 win pct).

    With this in mind I wanted to see if there was a quantitative way to gauge the Rockets performance during this streak as well as the relative difference with other parts of the Rockets season. To that end I wanted to use the Offense Rating (ORtg - or pts per 100 possessions), Point Margin, and Defensive Rating (DRtg - or pts allowed per 100 possessions) as way of gauging the strength of the Rockets. As demonstrated in the "Team Efficiency Rating" thread these stats give us some insight into the qualitative strength of teams.

    The previous team efficiency ratings only gave the season averages for all teams in the NBA. What I wanted to do next was to look at how this trended over the season for the Rockets.

    I first examined the ORtg for the Rockets for the entirety of the season:

    Rockets 05-06 ORtg:
    [​IMG]

    I was somewhat surprised at the result of the analysis. I had expected to see a noticeable increase for the Rockets ORtg during the Jan 30 - Mar 8 stretch of games with a healthy Yao/McGrady combination. Instead the ORtg remained relatively consistent and flat as compared to other parts of the season. There was only a slight increase over the season average 1 pt per 100 possesions:

    ORtg: 101 (Jan30-Mar8)
    ORtg: 100 (05-06 season)

    For reference, I've also marked on the graph the NBA league avg ORtg (104.4) on the graph.

    Next I examined the Point Margin differential of the Rockets:

    Rockets 05-06 Pt Margin Differential:
    [​IMG]

    This graph is a little more revealing and the obvious effect of having both TMac and Yao playing together is evident. For the Jan 30 - Mar 8 stretch, the pt margin correlates with the 14-5 record for that 19 game stretch. It's also interesting to note the increases and decreases in the Pt Margin trend with Yao or Tracy returning (or leaving). So if points per possessions remained relatively consistent for the Rockets then what were the variables that lead to Rockets being so strong from Jan30 - Mar8? If pts-per-possession didn't increase with Yao and TMac together there are two factors that could lead to the increase in pt margin differential:

    (1) increased possessions and field goal attempts (note: increasesed fg% would have resulted in an increased ORtng),
    (2) tougher defense (decrease in points allowed).

    Here is the DRtg chart that I looked at next:

    Rockets 05-06 Defensive Rating
    [​IMG]

    This was the other half of the surprise for me. The Rockets DRtg improved dramatically during the Jan30-Mar8 stretch. It appears that the main factor for the 14-5 record during the combination of a healthy TMac and Yao- it wasn't increased offensive production that the Rockets won games from, but rather increased defensive efficiency. (Just as a check I also looked at field goal attempts to see if there was any correlation and there doesn't appear to be any so I didn't post that graph here.).

    One of the factors that I have not figured out how to adjust for yet is the effect of playing stronger or weaker opponents. I don't know how much this affects the above analysis though on a cursory glance of looking at the strength of schedule the increase in defensive efficiency doesn't seem to be strongly influenced by opponent .pct. Team vs. team match-ups are something I'm still trying to understand how to compare so that's still to come.


    CONCLUSIONS:
    The Rockets with a healthy TMac and Yao in the lineup are at best a first round out with the roster from last year.

    First the lack of offensive efficiency is concerning. The NBA league avg ORtg is 104.4. Even during the great streak the Rockets were hovering below that (101). Also from the previous team efficiency thread the western conference offensive efficiency rating looks like:

    [​IMG]

    Looking at ORtg to be be a championship contender, the Rockets ORtg needs to be in the 106+ range. Looking at pt margin differential the Rockets need to be in the +5 to +7 range.

    With a healthy TMac and Yao playing together during the 14-5 run the Rockets were only averaging ORtg:101 and Pt Margin: +3.3 (Yes the Rockets registered a riduculous 97.3 DRtg but the impact of this outstanding rating is reflected in the Pt Margin).

    An ORtg of 101 would have put the Rockets about equal with the Hornets. A Pt Margin differential would have put them about equal with the Grizzlies.

    So other questions that are my mind regarding all this that I'd like to continue analyzing are: (1) what might the impact of the new additions to the Rockets be, (2) what type of production offensively & defensively out of the role players do we need alongside of Yao and TMac to make us contenders, and (3) what do the matchup comparisons team vs. team look like in relationship to all of this.
     
    #1 Tango, Jul 22, 2006
    Last edited: Jul 22, 2006
  2. H-Dub

    H-Dub Member

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    Yes they certainly are along with Battier and Alston.
     
  3. TMACFORMVP

    TMACFORMVP Member

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    I didn't read the whole thing but yeah I think we are.
     
  4. Tango

    Tango Contributing Member

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    I'm not so sure. Battier's impact needs to be seen still.

    Alston on the other hand as tangent from the analysis above, I'm now convinced does not add enough of an impact. Offensive efficiency did not increase at all with him in the game. I would have expected to see that be the case with his perceived help in easier assists etc. but it doesn't show up.
     
  5. Omer

    Omer Member

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    Screw that stats, this sheit is real. Healthly T-Mac and Yao will bring it home.

    Nice analysis though :)
     
  6. Van Gundier

    Van Gundier Member

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    Seems like a valid conclusion, even Van Gundy has hinted at that during and after the season. He said something about the Rockets would be a "tough out" in the playoffs, but not a real contender. The team was giving more minutes than it should to the likes of Head, Brunson, and Bogans (not to mention the underwhelming starting performance of Juwan and Rafer)... pretty bad supporting cast.

    Management knew they needed change and I'm glad they went out and got some. Battier will be a difference maker.

    But keep in mind that even when TMac played last season, he was rarely quite 100% physically or mentally. Hopefully we'll see optimal Yao and optimal TMac in the new season.
     
  7. dandorotik

    dandorotik Contributing Member

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    I think the postseason is where this becomes more evident. Notwithstanding the first-round collapse two seasons ago (McGrady and Yao's first together, BTW), look at the teams who have won championships- the bench matters, of course, but let's just take the starting five as an example:

    Shaq
    Kobe
    Fisher
    Fox
    Walker (Samaki) or Horry

    You can have 1 weak link with a strong starting 4 (Walker)

    Jordan
    Pippen
    Rodman
    Longley
    Harper

    OR 2 weak links if you have 2 top players and a 3rd who is either really good (think Glen Rice) or, in this case, an extreme specialist (Rodman in rebounding).


    Duncan
    Ginobili
    Parker
    Mohammed
    Bowen

    Remember, with this Spurs team, Parker was NOT an all-star level player; as a matter of fact, his playoff performances are his downfall. However, he was CAPABLE of giving you a 25-30 point performance. This model is 1 weak link with a specialist (Bowen) and two top players (depending on how you look at Ginobili).

    With this lineup:

    Yao
    McGrady
    Battier
    Alston
    Howard

    The only thing you have to do, as long as Yao and T-Mac are healthy, is replace either Alston or Howard, but not both. You have two top players, a specialist (Battier), and a weak link. Replace Alston with Morris Peterson, or Howard with someone like a healthy Nene (or someone that can give you 15 points and 8-9 boards, like a P.J. Brown in his younger days) or like a Udonis Haslem, and you'd have a championship contender.

    Of course, there are always exceptions, the game could continue to change, we could see Phoenix and Dallas win the next several championships to throw the theory out of the water, etc. But I'm still banking on a healthy Yao, a healthy McGrady, and a year of luck/correct personnel choices to take us to the top.
     
  8. BMoney

    BMoney Contributing Member

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    Alston's strength is setting up scoring for other players. It's not a crazy notion to argue that a healthy Yao, McGrady and Battier would make Alston more productive than he was passing to the likes of Keith Bogans, David Wesley and Juwon Howard.
     
  9. steddinotayto

    steddinotayto Contributing Member

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    i sometimes have no idea what is being described in his graphs, but I have to give tango lots of credit for spending time on doing something like this.
     
  10. WhoMikeJames

    WhoMikeJames Contributing Member

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    Looked complicated skipped the whole post, my answer is yes.
     
  11. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member

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    It's interesting that our team defensive efficiency was so much better when Yao and Tracy were both in the lineup. Perhaps that has more to do with us facing some really poor offensive teams? I would have expected the impact would have been more on the offensive side than the defensive side with those two.

    Another related stat to look at would be Rockets point differential with both McGrady and Yao on the court over the course of the season.

    In 800 minutes with both on the court
    Rockets: 96.4 pts per 48min
    Opponent: 91.2 pts per 48min
    Net: +5.2 pts per 48min

    With both on the court, the Rockets outscored the opponent (W) in 19 games, and they opponent outscored us (L) in 11 games.

    Here are the top 5 Player-Pairs for the Rockets last season (at least 500 minutes played), based on W-L%:

    <table><tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt; width: 48pt;" height="17" width="64">Player</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 48pt;" width="64">Player2</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 48pt;" width="64">Min</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 48pt;" width="64">+/-</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 48pt;" width="64">Off</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 48pt;" width="64">Def</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 48pt;" width="64">Net/g</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 48pt;" width="64">W</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 48pt;" width="64">L</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 48pt;" width="64">W%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl27" style="height: 12.75pt; width: 48pt;" height="17" width="64">Ming</td> <td class="xl27" style="width: 48pt;" width="64">Head</td> <td class="xl27" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" width="64">1056</td> <td class="xl27" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" width="64">152</td> <td class="xl27" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" width="64">93.5</td> <td class="xl27" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" width="64">86.6</td> <td class="xl27" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" width="64">6.9</td> <td class="xl27" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" width="64">33</td> <td class="xl27" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" width="64">19</td> <td class="xl28" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="0.63" width="64">63%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl25" style="height: 12.75pt; width: 48pt;" height="17" width="64">McGrady</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 48pt;" width="64">Ming</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" width="64">800</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" width="64">86</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" width="64">96.4</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" width="64">91.2</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" width="64">5.2</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" width="64">19</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" width="64">11</td> <td class="xl26" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="0.63" width="64">63%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl27" style="height: 12.75pt; width: 48pt;" height="17" width="64">McGrady</td> <td class="xl27" style="width: 48pt;" width="64">Wesley</td> <td class="xl27" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" width="64">1249</td> <td class="xl27" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" width="64">95</td> <td class="xl27" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" width="64">96</td> <td class="xl27" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" width="64">92.3</td> <td class="xl27" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" width="64">3.6</td> <td class="xl27" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" width="64">27</td> <td class="xl27" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" width="64">17</td> <td class="xl28" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="0.61" width="64">61%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl27" style="height: 12.75pt; width: 48pt;" height="17" width="64">Ming</td> <td class="xl27" style="width: 48pt;" width="64">Swift</td> <td class="xl27" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" width="64">507</td> <td class="xl27" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" width="64">59</td> <td class="xl27" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" width="64">92.4</td> <td class="xl27" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" width="64">86.8</td> <td class="xl27" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" width="64">5.6</td> <td class="xl27" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" width="64">24</td> <td class="xl27" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" width="64">20</td> <td class="xl28" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="0.54" width="64">54%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl25" style="height: 12.75pt; width: 48pt;" height="17" width="64">Ming</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 48pt;" width="64">Wesley</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" width="64">1035</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" width="64">38</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" width="64">93.4</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" width="64">91.6</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" width="64">1.8</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" width="64">22</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" width="64">20</td> <td class="xl26" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="0.52" width="64">52%</td> </tr> <!--[if supportMisalignedColumns]--> <tr style="display: none;" height="0"> <td style="width: 48pt;" width="64"></td> <td style="width: 48pt;" width="64"></td> <td style="width: 48pt;" width="64"></td> <td style="width: 48pt;" width="64"></td> <td style="width: 48pt;" width="64"></td> <td style="width: 48pt;" width="64"></td> <td style="width: 48pt;" width="64"></td> <td style="width: 48pt;" width="64"></td> <td style="width: 48pt;" width="64"></td> <td style="width: 48pt;" width="64"></td> </tr> <!--[endif]--> </table>

    I'm surprised how well the Yao-Luther pair did last season. Though perhaps they didn't face starters as often as Yao-McGrady did.
     
  12. KeepKenny

    KeepKenny Contributing Member

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    Yao and Luther were really starting to develop some chemistry at the end of the season. We consistently saw the play where Yao passed to a cutting Luther on the baseline for layups.
     
  13. DraftBoy10

    DraftBoy10 Member

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    I agree, Tango, with your conclusions. I really see that offensive efficieny will make us the most a 2nd round team. As you stated, from January to March, with Tracy back you'd expect some better offensive results. Yet we still see a team that is about 3.4(at Jan-March) lower in 100 possesions per, and 4.4 as a whole. That's very bad. Especially with the likes of Tracy and Yao, but again, that's two players, we need 6 other players to contribute in the rotation and 7 more players to be ready to come in. That's why I am very happy with the depth we've added this off-season.

    29 on that list is a 1st round exit, we got to the 1st round simply cause of the defensive efficiency and the fact we have Tracy and Yao. We need major help on offense.

    Like you stated, the presence of T-Mac, Yao wasn't majorityon offense, it was on defense. Surprising, until you read into this analysis. Infact, that's a concern, I'm happy to see thier defensive presence insanely good, I knew Yao was, but offensively if their presence meant that little, then there's a huge problem.

    Anyways, nonetheless, Tango, great job.
     
  14. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member

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    We should also factor in that during that time, Yao was just coming off an injury (remember, he didn't really explode until after the allstar break), and McGrady was operating at less than 80% in pretty much every game. And the rest of the role players were flaky when it came to health as well.

    If we experience relatively good health next season, I think we can be a very good team. I'm weary of being too optimistic with the offseason after last year, but I think our roster is clearly better now than it was last November.
     
  15. Tango

    Tango Contributing Member

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    Here's the cliff notes version for those who want to avoid the details above:

    Looking at the 14-5 streak last season, the 19 game stretch where Tmac and Yao were playing together along with the supporting cast we find some surprising results:

    #1: Yao and Tmac in the game didn't increase the overall offensive efficiency of the team. The reason the team was able to go on the 14-5 streak was because they were able to score on avg. 3.3 pts per game more than their opponents. The impact of Yao and Tmac playing together was not on the offensive end but their impact on the defensive end. (To be honest I'm still totally floored by this.)

    #2: During the 14-5 streak, though going on an impressive .737 winning percentage, the Rockets still ranked lower than any of the WC conference teams that advanced past the 1st round. This even with a TMac and Yao together for 19 games. Going by offensive efficiency rating the Rockets would have equaled NO/OK Hornets. Going by pt margin rating the Rockets woud have equaled the Memphis Grizzlies.

    #3: Basis #2 above if Yao and TMac were healthy for most of the season with last year's roster the Rockets still would not have been a contender in the playoffs but probably would have exited the 1st round.
     
  16. Tango

    Tango Contributing Member

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    I'm of the similar mind but actually have looked at some stats that indicate this. I'll visit this idea some other time in the future.
     
  17. Van Gundier

    Van Gundier Member

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    I'm not that suprised. Without shooters around Rockets weren't cashing in on a lot of help D on TMac or Yao. Both players also saw their overall FG% go down, perhaps as the result of heavy D on each of them even when both play together. TMac's condition also wasn't optimal.

    On the other hand, the one thing that TMac gave the Rockets, even when not 100%, was some perimeter size that they sorely lacked on D. At the very least, having TMac around reduced the need to overuse the likes of Head, Wesley, and Brunson.
     
  18. Tango

    Tango Contributing Member

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    If Alston's strength is setting up other players for scoring how come the offensive efficiency increase for the Rockets when he came back healthy?
     
  19. Tango

    Tango Contributing Member

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    durvasa - one of the reasons I was expecting to see an increase in offensive efficiency for the Rockets was based on the +/- numbers you quoted above. I now have a better understanding of why that is not the case. The reason is +/- stats are really just a measure of the relative difference between players being subbed-in and out on the same team vs. a relative ranking against other teams.

    Strength of schedule still plays into all the above analysis I think but again looking at the graphs you would have expected similar effectiveness in defensive efficiencies for the Rockets vs. weaker opponents in other parts of the schedule but they really aren't there.
     
  20. Van Gundier

    Van Gundier Member

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    Tango, one thing a TOR fan told me was that one of Rafer's favorite thing to do is to penetrate into the paint and throw the ball out to guys spotting up for 3 (particularly, the corner 3). He claimed that most of Rafers assists came from these situations. I wonder if the lack of other shooters (Rafer had both Bonner and Marshall in TOR) had hurt Alston since his favorite play doesn't work well with last year's non-shooters.

    His player pair table from MIA and TOR look pretty good:
    http://www.82games.com/0304MIAP.HTM
    http://www.82games.com/0405TORP.HTM

    Perhaps its really just the whole lineup not fitting well...
     

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