Still early, but the story here seems to be Repubs blowing opportunities. Even if they win the Senate majority, it will be by the most narrow of margins when a few months ago, folks were speculating about a possible 4-7 seat majority. Not to mention that by virtue of the seats up for election, 2016 looks to be shaping up like a Dem tidal wave already. Here in OR, Merkley was in a precarious position until the Obamacare obsession got the better of the wingers and the Koch brothers threw a bunch of money at a Republican doctor named Monica Wehby hoping she could press the case. She turned out to be perhaps the most hapless Senate candidate I've ever seen. She wasn't vetted, so her three domestic violence episodes came out after the primaries. She has refused debates even when running behind. She and her staff have committed plagiarism more than once, including copying Karl Rove on her "unique" perspective on medical care. She has stood up media organizations and refuses to engage Portland media. She comes off as being above everyone else (hey, she is a doctor). As one guy says: This was Merkley's first reelection campaign and will essentially put him in the Senate for as long as he likes. Which is good for Dems (and haunting for Repubs) because Merkley is a little different. Most people in DC are politicians who are forced to be legislators. Merkley is a legislator forced to be a politician. And he is both smart and relentless in pursuing legislative goals. He will be effective. I fully expect him to be in Harry Reid's chair at some point. When that happens and he proceeds to outsmart and outwork Repubs, they can think back to this election and how the Koch brothers had more money than sense and using that money, chose an ineffectual candidate to run against a young and vulnerable first term senator. And then there is Kansas and NC, where Repubs should be running away with it, but are not because Repubs have tried to enact every wingnut, Randish, oligarchical law they can get through the state legislatures and people are, not surprisingly, pissed. Again, Repubs started with an enormous structural advantage and that may be enough to carry them through to control of the Senate this year. But they haven't helped themselves and any victory will be short lived. If they do win though, they can cause much mischief over the next two years and likely some damage as they will realize it is their one shot at running the Senate for a while... so why not act up?
In democrat eyes, they never lose. if they barely regain the Senate, they will call it a mandate. If they lose the Senate, they will say they were expected to lose more. Typical liberal spin. Better yet, they already think 2016 is shaping up well. Even though 2 years is a very long time in political terms.
GA and KY will be fun to watch as well. I remain cautiously optimistic dems will hold. But it's going to be a nail biter.
This website has some good models and projections for the chances of a Republican majority: http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/senate-forecast/
Five Thirty Eight and Washington Post's Election Lab both say Republicans will take the Senate. We are about a month out, so I am guessing the predictions will be close if not exact.
I posted 538 before and I agree that Repubs just have to do nothing and say nothing inflammatory to win a majority. The disapointment at the Prez from both sides are fueling these numbers despite things picking up. The public isn't visibly noticing the recovery since government attention to the economy has been mostly production-side (interest rates, stocks, tax breaks that doesn't penalize boosts in productivity despite stagnant wages) rather than consumer-side (forced wage increases such as a living wage or increasing the pathetic national min wage, job growth, loan guarantees to stimulate a market composed of stingy banks). Keeping the job you found after you lost your better job and getting a 3% raise is not enough.
Does it really matter that much? 50/50 or 51/49 either way will result in two years of gridlock and posturing for 2016.
Yes, it does matter. Certainly, no legislation will be passed in either case. However, there will be virtually zilch in terms of presidential appointees confirmed to run the executive branch agencies and courts, Repubs will likely press through a number of rule changes in the Senate that make it more like the House, and they won't be able to help themselves on a bunch of stuff, creating endless veto fights over wacko bills and meaning we'll be lucky to have a CR passed for the rest of the year. If Repubs win the Senate, I fully expect another shutdown sometime between 12/12 and early next year.
I don't think I've ever seen this many races still be tossups this close to election day. If you're a Dem, you can take solace in the fact that over the last 2 election cycles, every close Senate race has gone the Democrats' way and their candidates consistently overperform, even when Dems are underperforming in the House. If you're a GOPer, you can take solace in the fact that you have far better candidates than previous years and have probably learned something from those previous elections and made some progress in the ground game. If election day were today, the outcome would be totally unpredictable. That's not really what the models say - the 538 model gives the GOP a 57% chance to take the Senate. A small likelihood, but very uncertain. This is in contrast to previous years where the models had pretty high certainty of their election forecasts with a month to go. There are just too many races up in the air and too many polls that aren't agreeing with each other.
Iowa Senate shocker — contracts awarded to Joni Ernst’s father raise conflict of interest questions Father of GOP nominee won $200,000 in contracts when Joni Ernst was in office, despite conflict of interest rules http://www.salon.com/2014/10/07/exc..._father_raise_conflict_of_interest_questions/ Senate Update: What’s The Matter With South Dakota? http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/senate-update-whats-the-matter-with-south-dakota/ Federal Court Strikes Down One Of The Most Aggressive Gerrymanders In The Country http://thinkprogress.org/justice/20...irginias-congressional-maps-unconstitutional/
Personally, I don't really care anymore. Don't get me wrong, I will still offset some crazy leftist vote with a vote of sanity but I still don't care. At least I know my daughter, who I raised right, will offset another crazy leftist vote being she turned 18 recently. Now that the political spectrum has moved so far to the left, it doesn't really matter. The Tea Party is what the Republicans used to be, the Republicans are what the Democrats used to be, and the Democrats have moved so far to the left, it is down right terrifying.
There is some truth to what you say. The Tea Party is much more sane than the Republicans ever were. Now the Republicans are rushing to be the Democrats as the Democrats fall off of the left side cliff.
My faith in the LORD is the only thing that keeps me sane in this upside-down world we live in where everything that used to be wrong is now right and vice-versa. I know everything is happening according to HIS plan. The USA is not mentioned in Biblical prophecy so we have to become irrelevant and thanks to the leftist we are quickly doing just that. Make fun of me all you want, it doesn't bother me and I will NEVER be ashamed of my faith!!!!
