Average season forecasted. Transition to La Niña to reduce windshear - making hurricanes more likely than last year. However, might see negative AMDO. [rQUOTEr]We anticipate that the 2016 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have approximately average activity. The current weakening El Niño is likely to transition to either neutral or La Niña conditions by the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. While the tropical Atlantic is relatively warm, the far North Atlantic is quite cold, potentially indicative of a negative phase of the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation. We anticipate a near-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted. http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2016/apr2016/apr2016.pdf[/rQUOTEr]
Slightly off topic but can't find the weather thread ... Holy **** !! Anyone else just get a severe downpour . These streets flooded fast
I was on the East side. I legit had to drive 5 mph down a road and still had major vision problems. Pulled over to a church parking lot and it began hailing. Absolute heaviest rain I've ever driven in.
I pulled up in someone's driveway and walked home . My car is fairly low to the ground and the atwell/ willowbend area is a mess when it comes to drainage
Last year's forecast was fairly accurate, as was their forecast of the year before that. 10 years since a major hurricane made landfall in the US, and also:
Scary shelf cloud in Babalama ... https://weather.com/science/weather-explainers/news/shelf-cloud-alabama-gulf-shores-17jun2016
Table below (and pic). http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/#bac <left> <table border="3" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="1" width="40%"> <caption align="left"><b>Table 1.</b> Progress of the average Atlantic season (1966-2009). Date upon which the following number of events would normally have occurred.</caption> <tbody><tr align="center"> <th id="a1">Number</th> <th id="a2">Named systems</th> <th id="a3">Hurricanes</th> <th id="a4">Category 3 or greater</th> </tr><tr align="center"><td headers="a1">1</td><td headers="a2">July 9</td><td headers="a3">Aug 10</td><td headers="a4">Sep 4</td> </tr><tr align="center"><td headers="a1">2</td><td headers="a2">Aug 1 </td><td headers="a3">Aug 28</td><td headers="a4">Oct 3</td> </tr><tr align="center"><td headers="a1">3</td><td headers="a2">Aug 13 </td><td headers="a3">Sep 9</td><td headers="a4">-</td> </tr><tr align="center"><td headers="a1">4</td><td headers="a2">Aug 23 </td><td headers="a3">Sep 21</td><td headers="a4">-</td> </tr><tr align="center"><td headers="a1">5</td><td headers="a2">Aug 31 </td><td headers="a3">Oct 7</td><td headers="a4">-</td> </tr><tr align="center"><td headers="a1">6</td><td headers="a2">Sep 8 </td><td headers="a3">Nov 23</td><td headers="a4">-</td> </tr><tr align="center"><td headers="a1">7</td><td headers="a2">Sep 16 </td><td headers="a3">-</td><td headers="a4">-</td> </tr><tr align="center"><td headers="a1">8</td><td headers="a2">Sep 24 </td><td headers="a3">-</td><td headers="a4">-</td> </tr><tr align="center"><td headers="a1">9</td><td headers="a2">Oct 4 </td><td headers="a3">-</td><td headers="a4">-</td> </tr><tr align="center"><td headers="a1">10</td><td headers="a2">Oct 19 </td><td headers="a3">-</td><td headers="a4">-</td> </tr><tr align="center"><td headers="a1">11</td><td headers="a2">Nov 23 </td><td headers="a3">-</td><td headers="a4">-</td> </tr></tbody></table> </left> Spoiler http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/c*m-average_Atl_1966-2009.gif
[rQUOTEr]Man Drowns in Louisiana Flooding; Evacuations and Rescues Ongoing as Rivers Rise Toward Record Crests Torrential rains have hit both Louisiana and southern Mississippi, flooding homes, forcing evacuations and water rescues, and sending area rivers rising quickly toward historic crests. More than 17 inches of rain have fallen in Livingston, Louisiana, according to observations relayed to the National Weather Service, and Gov. John Bel Edwards declared a state of emergency for the entire state. The heavy rain will continue over Louisiana and Mississippi through at least Saturday morning, said weather.com meteorologist Tom Moore. "It's going to going to get a whole lot worse before it gets better," Moore said. The flooding has already claimed one life. A 68-year-old man has drowned trying to escape floodwaters near Zachary, Louisiana, as heavy rains piled up water in the northeastern regions of the state, WAFB.com reported. ... [/rQUOTEr]