RB bust rate is so high that more and more people are going to zero RB theory. I recently did a mock and took Gronk/Luck 10/11 and ended up with Melvin Gordon, Lamar Miller, Joseph Randle, CJ Spiller as my RBs. Thats pretty ****in' thin for a 10 team mock.
Was Jeremy Hill not available when you drafted Luck...? And what did the rest of your mock draft team look like...?
Pretty awful. Hill was gone, and if Brady does indeed end up missing the first 4, Gronk definitely takes a hit. I ended up with Cooks, Maclin, Watkins, Landry, and Cruz as my WRs in that one. Yuck. Definitely won't be doing QB/TE this year if I get bookends. I did much better on mocks this year where I went RB/WR/RB/WR
In that situation I would go WR with the 1st 2 picks... Dez, Demaryius, Brown, AJ Green, OBJ _ or even a Jordy & Cobb combo... Two of those guys had to be available and all of those guys are a safer bet to have over 1200-1300 yards and or double digit TD's than a majority of the RB's you can name. And by drafting two WR's early _ instead of drafting Cooks (who's over valued), Maclin, Watkins, Landry, and Cruz... Maybe Cam and Olsen were available and or you could have drafted one or two more RB's to add to the ones you got (and that's a good group of RB's you drafted _ they're not why the draft was awful).
Interesting. QB/TE early gets you production you can be confident in right off the bat. Allows you to focus on WR (a deep position) and gamble with a stack of RB's. But it looks like it's not paying off for you. Really depends on how good your league is I suppose. I rarely if ever take a QB early, but Gronk will definitely be nice to have this year if Brady plays.
The prevailing idea is that RB shortage leads to WR gain, but this is flawed because an increase in passing does not correlate directly to higher WR usage, especially in systems where RBs and TEs receive a higher % of targets. In this particular mock I spent bookends on Gronk/Luck only to be faced with the challenge of then finding RBs plus insurance depth and 3 suitable WRs. At the end of the draft I feel moderately confident that 2 out of Melvin Gordon, Lamar Miller, Joseph Randle, CJ Spiller will be useful, but then I look at my WRs and see that I have fringe WR2s and 3s. Having bookends filled me with RB paranoia. Without a legit WR1 I am liable to have several off-weeks from the 3 WR slots there and would have to rely on monster QB/TE production to pick up that slack. I will say that this particular mock seemed to be filled with good drafters, which is usually not the case in those yahoo mocks.
setting up a yahoo league for some friends and I...typically we have just done standard head to head and default scoring/position settings. buddy of mine wants to change it to 2 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, TE, flex, K, DEF i think we're going to have 12 people...another buddy said he wants only 1 QB spot if we're having 12 people. i've never used flex spot before...any insight here...what exactly is a flex spot and what about the concern of 2 QB's with 12 people..yay or nay?
A flex spot is good because it allows you to play more to the strengths of your team, usually flex is a RB/WR/TE. So say if you have 3 good RBs you could play them all by flexing the 3rd RB. As for 2 QB, I've done it before and didn't really care for it too much. In a 12 team league 2QB would be really difficult because you have 24 out of 32 total available roster positions, leaving no room for depth. You're going to have teams with 3QBs on the roster to account for bye weeks or depth in general, so you're likely looking at a shortage of supply when one of your guys is on bye week, which will severely piss you off. Simple math really. 32 QBs available. 12 teams x 3QBs = 36. I wouldn't do 2QB with anything larger than a 10 team.
My 14-team non-PPR league is introducing keepers for the first time. Rule is you have to give up the pick two rounds ahead of where the player was taken in the previous draft. I've spent the entire offseason thinking Luck was my guy as he'd cost me a second rounder. Our drafts are QB heavy in the first few rounds (5 pts per TD, 7 taken in first 4 rounds last year, including 3 in first) so he'll be taken in the first for sure. Now after starting to do a little research for the upcoming season, I'm questioning my decision. Here are the only ones I'd consider keeping and the pick I'd give up: Luck - 2nd L. Miller - 3rd C. Hyde - 6th Charles Johnson - 15th T. Kelce - 15th I'm starting to buy into the Kelce hype and leaning towards him. He's consensus top-5 TE from the rankings I've seen, so it seems much better value to have him with a 15th (not to mention a 13th next year, 11th the next, if he's as good as advertised and stays healthy) and keep my second rounder. Thoughts?
I just have more faith in WR's than RB's; rather have Thomas, Brown, and Dez over the likes of Hill, Charles, Peterson, and Bell. I don't grab my first RB until round 5
6 or 4pt passing TD's? Kelce at 15 is a steal and you're done chasing TE's. Luck in the 2nd - that's his value.
Given those options I'd stick with Luck if its costing you a 2nd. I'm not really into high QB drafting, but a TE like Kelce just isn't going to produce Gronk numbers or anywhere close which means there will be a big group of TEs that will finish somewhere around his numbers. This is the reason I don't advocate taking a TE until everyone else has already grabbed one if you don't end up with Gronk or possibly Graham. Grab a late round guy like Martellus Bennett or Kyle Rudolph and then take a flier on a sleeper like Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Tyler Eifert, Josh Hill etc later on. I understand investing very little in a projected Top 5 TE is tempting, but when you're talking about the TE position it is Tier 1 Gronk, Tier 2 Graham (maybe), and then everyone else.
5-pt. That's my thought as well. And if Kelce's as good as they say, I can get him for under value for a couple more seasons. My other keepable players are as follows: Garcon (1st, LOL!) Daniel Herron (15th) Allen Hurns (13th) Shorts (5th, LOL!) Nate Washington (15th) Kendall Wright (4th, LOL!) Man, my WRs were so so so so awful. Luck and Graham carried me to the playoffs.
Any love for Hyde? As a 6th rounder, that could be good value. I just don't trust him and would rather use my keeper on more of a sure-thing.
I'm torn on Hyde. With a 6th round pick in a 14 team league thats good value well below current ADP. On one hand I think he'll get the bulk of the carries, but I'm scared ****less of that offense right now because of how bad it was last season. With the way the defense has been gutted, it seems like they'll be playing from behind more which would mean more Reggie Bush snaps.
