1. Welcome! Please take a few seconds to create your free account to post threads, make some friends, remove a few ads while surfing and much more. ClutchFans has been bringing fans together to talk Houston Sports since 1996. Join us!

Jeremy Lin's usage rate vs. his effectiveness

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by CXbby, Oct 29, 2013.

  1. CXbby

    CXbby Member

    Joined:
    Dec 13, 2002
    Messages:
    8,701
    Likes Received:
    10,685
    With Jeremy Lin coming off the bench in a 6th man role, he is likely to be the primary ball handler in a larger portion of his minutes. The narrative all last year was that he is a more effective player with the ball in his hands. It would be interesting to see if that is accurate or not as things play out this year.

    Usage rate measures the amount of plays the team is using you in. RAPM measures your effectiveness on the court.

    For Jeremy, theoretically, there should be a positive correlation between these two stats. Indeed, in the past two seasons:

    USG%

    11-12 28.1%
    12-13 20.8%

    RAPM

    11-12 +2.2
    12-13 +0.4

    http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/l/linje01.html
    http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/

    Lin was limited in the first half of last season, still recovering from knee surgery. That should be taken into account for the decline in RAPM. But his changing role and decrease in usage likely had an impact as well.

    As the 6th man this year, I'd like to see his USG% tick up to around 25%, a happy medium between his role next to Harden, and the NY Linsanity. What will be really interesting to keep track of is how this affects his RAPM.

    __________

    Side note:

    There is a real dearth of effective 6th men in the NBA today. Players who can impact the game off the bench. Guys like Crawford and JR Smith are one dimensional chuckers, as evident by their overall net neutral ratings.

    In recent years, you had Manu, Harden, and even Odom who were crucial to the successes of contenders and champions. Jeremy may not be as good as those guys, but if he could just give us a fraction of that, it would make the team that much more dangerous.
     
    #1 CXbby, Oct 29, 2013
    Last edited: Oct 29, 2013
    1 person likes this.
  2. AvgJoe

    AvgJoe Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Apr 8, 2009
    Messages:
    3,637
    Likes Received:
    392
    I thought it was not confirmed he's the 6th man.
    I truly hope if he's the 6th man, his usage rate can be increased from last year, but as a starter, I don't see why he can't get the same usage by staggering time on court with Harden.
     
  3. Wapzoe

    Wapzoe Member

    Joined:
    May 22, 2012
    Messages:
    779
    Likes Received:
    86
    With Harden on the team, Lin is a natural 6th man.

    His strength is driving (ie ball in hand offense) and 6th man will allow him to operate without Harden for a significant portion of his minutes.

    Really, this is a win-win.
    His minutes will not be affected by coming off the bench
    He will be the primary target for many of his minutes
    He will provide a legitimate playmaker behind Harden
    and allow the rockets scoring to be relatively constant through the game
     
  4. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Feb 11, 2006
    Messages:
    37,908
    Likes Received:
    15,377
    People are worried that him being "demoted" to a reserve role indicates that his minutes and touches will also go down in a major way. One guy even said that Beverley would be dominating the ball when he and Lin are in the backcourt. This is paranoia, masquerading as analysis.

    Lin will probably play about 30 minutes a game, and his usage should be similar to last year, with an increase during those minutes when he's not playing with Harden (of which we can expect about 5 additional minutes per game or thereabouts).

    Improvements in shooting, defense, and turnovers will allow him to stay on the floor longer.
     
  5. Wapzoe

    Wapzoe Member

    Joined:
    May 22, 2012
    Messages:
    779
    Likes Received:
    86
    Also with Bev facing the first string PG, he will limit their effectiveness through his defence much more than Lin would.
    Plus Lin and Harden are both gamblers on defense, leading to inconsistent performances

    Bev needs to be in there with either of those two as much as possible to help our defense and the easiest way to do that is to start him and alternate him with Lin and Harden off the bench
     
  6. CXbby

    CXbby Member

    Joined:
    Dec 13, 2002
    Messages:
    8,701
    Likes Received:
    10,685
    Harden is not playing 43 minutes a game. Lin will likely have a whole quarter(12 minutes) of court time without Harden. That is over a third of his playing time if he averages 30 MPG, compared to last year when he played nearly every minute with Harden in the second half of the season.

    I would be pretty surprised if his usage rate this year ended up similar to last year.
     
  7. iam

    iam Member

    Joined:
    Oct 9, 2013
    Messages:
    63
    Likes Received:
    5
    every single preseason game, with Lin and Beverly together, I've seen Beverly handle the ball.

    This is all coaching. Beverly is an even worse spot-up shooter than Lin. Beverly reminds me of Tony Allen...

    I feel sorry for Lin, Beverly and Lin don't play well together either. Atleast with Harden and Lin, either Harden or Lin can effectively run point.
     
  8. Morlock O

    Morlock O Member

    Joined:
    Dec 6, 2012
    Messages:
    1,413
    Likes Received:
    32
    you just lost all your credibility right there...
     
  9. davidio840

    davidio840 Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Jul 14, 2010
    Messages:
    7,999
    Likes Received:
    3,244

    LOL it is spelled BEVERLEY and BEVERLEY is a good spot up shooter. Just as good as Lin, if not slightly better. Quit crying.
     
  10. Wapzoe

    Wapzoe Member

    Joined:
    May 22, 2012
    Messages:
    779
    Likes Received:
    86
    An interesting thought,
    Does Lin's gargantuan fanbase have any bearing on him starting or not?

    I'd like to say no, but knowing how valuable he is from a marketing perspective I have a suspicion it may play a role.

    Or am i being cynical?
     
  11. knickstorm

    knickstorm Member

    Joined:
    Jun 29, 2006
    Messages:
    3,712
    Likes Received:
    74
    ehh I dont know. Lin was pretty solid from downtown the last half of 2013.
    That said, we'll see if Bev is able to shut down many of the elite PG's otherwise there's no other reason for him to start.

    Lin being the "primary" ball handler kind of overblown I think. He's only the primary ball handler if Harden's off the floor. At 38 minutes a game, that'a s max of 7 minutes of him handling the ball and that's assuming he's always on the floor when Harden's not.
     
  12. knickstorm

    knickstorm Member

    Joined:
    Jun 29, 2006
    Messages:
    3,712
    Likes Received:
    74
    dont know about that one. Lin/Bev actually mesh pretty well from what I saw last year.
     
  13. CXbby

    CXbby Member

    Joined:
    Dec 13, 2002
    Messages:
    8,701
    Likes Received:
    10,685
    You just made 3 posts in a row in this thread that have nothing to do with the discussion at hand. Whether Jeremy should start or come off the bench is not the topic.
     
  14. NewAge

    NewAge Member

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2013
    Messages:
    2,586
    Likes Received:
    2,649
    Yes, good point. In preseason, I was struck how easy he generates offense. He seemed to be able to get to the basket quite easy: good first step and good reading of the PnR.

    He still looks like a confidence/adrenaline player, though. The key is, can he perform with consistency day-in, day-out.
     
  15. Phillycheese

    Phillycheese Member

    Joined:
    Jan 10, 2013
    Messages:
    554
    Likes Received:
    20
    At least Lin has done it. The ? is can Beverley play 82 games at a consistent level.
     
  16. kmart9419

    kmart9419 Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Mar 4, 2003
    Messages:
    718
    Likes Received:
    46
    Beverly dribbles the ball up court then hands it off to lin. Same like Lin does with harden. Beverly benefits both harden and lin. Harden and Lin shares the same skill sets and the same defensive liabilities. Beverly complements both. Beverly's main job is to get ball across the court and pass to the playmaker. Of course he will also pick up the tougher guard assignment as well.
     
  17. pollaxt

    pollaxt Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Jun 13, 2003
    Messages:
    1,822
    Likes Received:
    68
    All Bev is an all-effort guy with solid 3 point shooting. And that's enough. I don't see his effort going away any time soon.
     
  18. kmart9419

    kmart9419 Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Mar 4, 2003
    Messages:
    718
    Likes Received:
    46
    From what I saw in preseason, Beverly and Lin formed quite a tandem. They did very well together. They are a good "fit."
     
  19. Noble

    Noble New Member

    Joined:
    Oct 29, 2013
    Messages:
    2
    Likes Received:
    0
    if Lin comes of the bench, he doesn't need the to be a good 3pt shooter, he just needs to be a good playmaker and be as aggressive as he can be.
     
  20. JustAGuy

    JustAGuy Member

    Joined:
    Dec 17, 2012
    Messages:
    1,464
    Likes Received:
    70
    "Probably play about 30 minutes"... define about :)

    I think Beverley starting makes a lot of sense if Asik starts; his on-ball defense is an important part of what could make that work. If we make it to the finals, Asik is going to be a big reason why, so it all makes sense.

    But while I think Harden should play fewer minutes to be able to hold up all season, I don't think that will happen. That means Lin has maybe 8 minutes as Harden's sub (the rest taken by Garcia), plus some time as Beverley's sub, plus smallball minutes. But if they need him for smallball to end the game, the minutes won't line up very well if he is also subbing for starters.. which means he'll be doing less subbing for starters, because the smallball minutes are more important.

    Net result, to my mind, is closer to 25 minutes with Beverley at 35.
     

Share This Page

  • About ClutchFans

    Since 1996, ClutchFans has been loud and proud covering the Houston Rockets, helping set an industry standard for team fan sites. The forums have been a home for Houston sports fans as well as basketball fanatics around the globe.

  • Support ClutchFans!

    If you find that ClutchFans is a valuable resource for you, please consider becoming a Supporting Member. Supporting Members can upload photos and attachments directly to their posts, customize their user title and more. Gold Supporters see zero ads!


    Upgrade Now