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[ESPN] Hollinger: Evaluating the James Harden Deal

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by durvasa, Nov 28, 2012.

  1. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member

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    There will likely be a lot of HOU-OKC coverage tonight.

    Hollinger reviews the deal 1 month into the season.

    http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/page/PERDiem-121128/how-james-harden-deal-worked-out

    [rquoter]
    You might describe James Harden's season in Dennis Green terms: He was who we thought he was.

    Through 14 games with his new squad in Houston, Harden has predictably been forced to take more shots than he did in Oklahoma City and converted with less efficiency as a result. But the upshot of that trade-off is that Harden still looks to be the All-Star caliber guard he showed himself to be as a sixth man with the Thunder: His 21.89 PER is nearly a perfect match for the 21.13 he registered in OKC.

    If he keeps that up, it pretty much cements him as utterly deserving of a max contract; very few wing players ring up numbers anywhere close to what Harden has done. His PER ranks him second only to Kobe Bryant among shooting guards, and fifth overall among wing players -- behind only Bryant and the three luminary small forwards, LeBron James, Kevin Durant and Carmelo Anthony.

    While one presumes that Dwyane Wade probably will pass Harden at some point too, this at worst leaves him as the sixth-best wing player in the league. The other five, you'll notice, all get the max.

    So let's set that debate aside, because it's not much of a debate anymore, and then look at a few other questions as Harden's Rockets head to Oklahoma City tonight for his first visit since his surprising preseason trade to Houston:

    ...

    Is Harden killing Linsanity? James Harden is a pick-and-roll guard. Jeremy Lin is a pick-and-roll guard. You can only run pick-and-roll with one of them at any given time, and Harden is better at it than Lin. Soooo ... what exactly does that leave Lin doing?

    "Spotting up" seems to be the answer, but Lin isn't any good at this, shooting only 25.6 percent on 3s this season and 29.4 percent for his career. In fact, he has been even worse inside the arc, making only 6-of-28 on 2s from beyond 10 feet. He shot respectably at this range in New York a year ago (44-of-98), so this may just be a short-term thing, but regardless opponents will happily concede long 2s to Lin if it lets them smother Harden's drives. He needs to punish them with 3s.

    There's a lot going on here -- it's a small sample of games, Lin is coming off a knee injury and the Rockets are still figuring out how to incorporate the talents of all their new players.

    But the cruel truth, according to NBA.com's stats tool, is that Harden is a lot better when Lin isn't playing next to him. Harden shoots 48.9 percent with Lin on the bench and only 43.9 percent with him in the game; he also draws dramatically more fouls and has a better plus-minus.

    As for Lin? Amazingly, the Rockets have hardly tried letting him run the show while Harden sits. He has played only 48 minutes without Harden this season, and while his numbers in that stint haven't been good, we're looking at a fairly minuscule sample size.

    An obvious solution for Houston would be to stagger the minutes of both players so that Lin and Harden each get a solid 10-minute run without the other. Thus far, they've averaged about half of that -- in 14 games, they have only 164 minutes of solo time between them.

    The theoretical maximum, if the Rockets had perfectly timed the rest periods for each, is 336, which means Houston is giving their two guards solo time only about half as often as it could. Obviously there are some practical limitations to this, but it seems Houston could take it further.

    In the meantime, the two have to coexist better as well. Despite their talents, the Harden-Lin pairing has been one of the Rockets' worst two-man units (just a +7, while playing nearly two-thirds of the minutes of a team that is +31 on the season). Working out the kinks with two guards who need the ball and aren't great spot-up guys (especially Lin) was never going to be easy, especially without a training camp. We're seeing the growing pains as we go.

    ...
    [/rquoter]
     
  2. abigwreck

    abigwreck Member

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    good read.
     
  3. alethios

    alethios Member

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    I think it speaks to a lack of a decent backup point guard as well, but I totally agree that so far our offense hasn't been setup to be the most efficient when they are both on the floor.
     
  4. Sydeffect

    Sydeffect Member

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    Hollinger has the Rockets ranked 11 on his power rankings
     
  5. larsv8

    larsv8 Contributing Member

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    Yea, Lin is definately not a good long term fit and will probably be moved for a better fit eventually. He does bring some rebounding and defense, but in the long run, we need to upgrade.

    A spot up shooter would be ideal. A defender would be a nice bonus. Playmaking not really needed.

    Aaron Brooks anyone?
     
  6. hotballa

    hotballa Contributing Member

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    Dragic is probably a better fit tbh
     
  7. Beard

    Beard Member

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    I have seen a lot of improvement these last 2 games, when they are next to each other spaced out at the top, one drives, draws D, kicks to the other. Not a lot of lin camping out in the corner
     
  8. Fullcourt

    Fullcourt Contributing Member

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    Very neat, thanks for posting
     
  9. cytrynowa

    cytrynowa Member

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    Wasn't this roxxy's idea like after 4 games? :)
     
  10. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member

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    I'd like to give Lin a full season. He's shown some improvements the last couple games. No reason to rush him out of here, unless we're getting a star player in return. I like AB, but I'd pass on that trade.
     
  11. SamFisher

    SamFisher Contributing Member

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    Brooks is good at spotting up but basically it means you have to get him to mentally concede that he's a 5-9 3 pt specialist.

    If he's capable of comprehending this and playing like Bulls-era Steve Kerr, than cool enough. He'd be a productive add.

    If he plays like he tried to play last stint in Houston (I haven't watched him this season so I don't know what he's doing this year) and play like a PG by dribbling and driving and etc it's counterproductive unless you have literally no other options because he's very limited under the hoop.
     
  12. HMMMHMM

    HMMMHMM Contributing Member

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    No. I think you need to pair Harden with a plus defender. Think Kyle Lowry, prime Chauncey Billups.

    Then again Lin has looked good these last few games and I don't think the Rockets are at all in a rush to trade him.
    Morey has said he likes "attack guards" and the team obviously wants to push the pace. Bledsoe isn't a great shooter, but he might fit that bill. Llull is having his best season yet in the ACB, but unless there's a buyout we don't know about, he won't come over for a while and as good as he's been playing he's probably still best suited as a change of pace combo guard off the bench.
     
  13. Arthurprescott2

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    That's a point which I and many others on this board have been harping on since the trade. Two ball-dominant guards? Then stagger their minutes!

    Part of the problem has been that Delfino is out and Cook isn't trusted yet. Sampson seems to loathe putting leaving Lin in to anchor the offense w/ TD or Cook (for good reason).
     
  14. DudeWah

    DudeWah Member

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    I think this at least somewhat puts to rest the myth that Jeremy Lin makes things easier for Harden. That was a silly sentiment all along.

    I agree with Hollinger that if you have two players who are proficient at one thing and one of them does it quite a bit better than the other, he should have the ball.

    I do however think that putting Lin in pick and roll situations more often so he can prosper will fare better for the team overall by keeping the defense honest.
     
  15. DudeWah

    DudeWah Member

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    <br>
    Brooks is an excellent 3 point shooter so this wouldn't be a complete stretch.
    <br>
    To be fair though, Brooks has always been good at driving to the hoop because of his quickness and his ability to change pace exceptionally well.

    That's a dimension the Rockets absolutely need from a PG that spots up. When a defender is closing in to contest the 3 point shot, that player has to be able to drive past him. I think that's actually part of the reason Chandler Parsons has been playing so well lately. He's not afraid to drive past his defender anymore. When the defense realizes he can score in more than one way, it makes it harder to defend.

    That's one of Brooks' strong suits imo. The ability to drive past the defender and hit the "stop and pop" a la Calvin Murphy.

    I wouldn't say he's completely unproductive under the hoop either. IIRC he was fairly adept at those "kiss off the glass" type layups, but more importantly at drawing fouls under the basket. And since he's a ~90% ft shooter that means a lot.
    <br>
    But then again, I don't know if the liability he brings on defense would be worth it or not.
     
  16. JayGoogle

    JayGoogle Member

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    The key is to get them both moving really, keeping them both threats so that it is harder for the entire defense to just key in or collapse around either of them.

    I still see a lot of spotting up...I think though that the defenses are now giving Parsons, Asik, and the rest of the players more respect though. Those other guys, even Patterson because he will fill it up if left open have stepped up the last two games really.

    With all that said. I'm glad Hollingers number say what they do about Harden. I've said it over and over, dude is a star player.
     
  17. HamJam

    HamJam Contributing Member

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    Bill Simmons, who is of course not always right, has long said that Lin is the perfect 3rd guard offensive spark off the bench -- along the lines of Barea when he was in Dallas. I think Hollinger's analysis supports this view. Unfortunately the team does not have a starting point guard that would really allow Lin being used in that way, but I think Lin coming off the bench and the Rockets thus maximizing the talents of both Lin and Harden is the ideal solution for this team.
     
  18. larsv8

    larsv8 Contributing Member

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    Kyle Lowry and prime Chauncey Billups are not available.
     
  19. Sydeffect

    Sydeffect Member

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    If Lin can shoot the 3 more consistently, it would open up the entire Rockets offense completely. Usually the 2nd player guarding Harden is Lin's man daring him to shoot the jumper. It would improve Harden's game also. FG%, APG, and cut down on his TO numbers.
     
  20. HMMMHMM

    HMMMHMM Contributing Member

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    Are you sure? What about prime Jason Kidd? Mike Conley or Dragic would be decent fits, too.

    I'm with durvasa. Let's give Lin some time. Aaron Brooks should always be available.
     

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