[ESPN Insider] Lotto preview: Who would teams pick?

Lotto preview: Who would teams pick?


Ford By Chad Ford
ESPN.com
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Wall/Turner/CousinsUS PresswireJohn Wall, Evan Turner and DeMarcus Cousins are among the biggest lotto prizes in this year's draft.


SECAUCUS, N.J. -- The 2010 NBA draft lottery is Tuesday night (ESPN, 8 p.m. ET). Fourteen teams will vie for the No. 1 pick in the draft.

This year there are two big prizes -- Kentucky's John Wall and Ohio State's Evan Turner. The other top players include Georgia Tech's Derrick Favors, Kentucky's DeMarcus Cousins and Syracuse's Wesley Johnson.

Here's a brief look at what each lottery team would do if it got one of the top three picks:


New Jersey Nets

Pick 1: John Wall (25.0 percent chance of winning lottery)

Pick 2: Evan Turner (21.5 percent chance of drafting second)

Pick 3: Derrick Favors (17.7 percent chance of drafting third)

Analysis: The Nets know there is more at stake in this lottery than just the first pick in the draft. If they can win the No. 1 pick and grab Wall, they will suddenly be able to make a much stronger pitch to free agents like LeBron James and Dwyane Wade that New Jersey has the young supporting talent to win a championship. If the Nets slide to No. 4 the way the Kings did last year (the Nets have a 39 percent chance of getting the fourth pick), convincing top free agents to sign will be a lot harder.

Wall is the type of superstar player the Nets have been looking for. If they land the No. 1 pick, expect Devin Harris to immediately go on the trading block.

If they slide to No. 2, the Nets would still feel very lucky. Turner would fit a big need for the Nets and bring all the intangibles that a good contending team needs.

If they slide to No. 3, the most likely scenario is taking Favors. The team is still fond of Yi Jianlian, but Favors is a different type of power player.


Minnesota Timberwolves

Pick 1: John Wall (19.9 percent)

Pick 2: Evan Turner (18.8 percent)

Pick 3: Wesley Johnson (17.1 percent)

Analysis: The Wolves are in a very interesting position. They don't really need a point guard because GM David Kahn drafted two of them last year -- Jonny Flynn and Ricky Rubio. Flynn had a solid rookie season, but Kahn is infatuated with Rubio. After watching Rubio's magic in the semifinal game of the Euroleague Final Four, it's not hard to understand why. Still, I've been assuming for months that the Wolves would take Wall anyway. He's a much better prospect than Flynn and no one knows when or even if Rubio will ever wear a Wolves uniform.

However, a source close to Turner's camp told me over the weekend that they've received signals that Turner would be the choice if the Wolves get the No. 1 pick. Turner is certainly an excellent fit with the Wolves' current roster. But if they make that move, they had better be sure that Rubio is coming and that he'll be a star.

If the Wolves slide to the third pick, they'll have their choice among Johnson, Favors and Cousins. Since they are already stocked at power forward with Al Jefferson and Kevin Love, they could be more inclined to go with Johnson.


Sacramento Kings

Pick 1: John Wall (15.6 percent)

Pick 2: Evan Turner (15.7 percent)

Pick 3: Derrick Favors (15.5 percent)

Analysis: The Kings struck gold in last year's draft, despite the fact they slid all the way to the fourth pick on lottery night even with the worst record in the league. Tyreke Evans was the league's rookie of the year and looks like a big-time building block.

GM Geoff Petrie has been insisting that Evans is a point guard, but we'll see how firm he holds to that if the Kings land the No. 1 pick. A Wall-Evans backcourt would be devastating.

Turner is also a good fit in Sacramento. He can play three positions and, combined with Evans, the Kings would be able to give teams a number of different looks.

If they land the third pick, look for them to grab Favors. Yes, the Kings have Jason Thompson and Carl Landry, but neither of those players has the upside of Favors.


Golden State Warriors

Pick 1: John Wall (10.4 percent)

Pick 2: Evan Turner (11.2 percent)

Pick 3: DeMarcus Cousins (12.1 percent)

Analysis: Last year's lottery pick, Stephen Curry, looks like the Warriors' point guard of the future. He averaged a mind-blowing 26.4 ppg and 8.1 apg while shooting 47 percent from 3 in April. However, that won't stop the Warriors from taking Wall if they land the No. 1 pick. The two would be a good match together in the backcourt as Curry can just as easily play off the ball. If they land the top pick, you can expect the Warriors to start shopping Monta Ellis immediately.

If they get the second pick, Turner would be the likely choice. He can play multiple positions, which would allow the Warriors the freedom to move him around.

If they land the No. 3 pick, I wouldn't be shocked if they take Cousins. They don't have a lot in the middle besides Andris Biedrins, and Cousins would give the Warriors a consistent low-post scorer, which they desperately need.


Washington Wizards

Pick 1: John Wall (10.3 percent)

Pick 2: Evan Turner (11.1 percent)

Pick 3: Derrick Favors (12.0 percent)

Analysis: The Wizards traded away last year's No. 5 pick for Mike Miller and Randy Foye with the expectation that they'd be a playoff contender. Instead the team tanked when Gilbert Arenas was suspended for the season in January for a gun incident with Javaris Crittenton in the Wizards' locker room.

If Washington can land Wall, perhaps things could turn around quickly. Wall and Arenas would be a very explosive backcourt as Arenas has always been more of a 2-guard anyway. Turner would also be a good fit given the Wizards' impending free-agent departures this summer. And Favors would be a nice fit at the 4 if they were to pick third.

The truth is the Wizards are basically gutted at this point. If they can get anyone in the top five, they'll have someone who should come in and contribute immediately.


Philadelphia 76ers

Pick 1: John Wall (5.3 percent)

Pick 2: Evan Turner (6.0 percent)

Pick 3: Derrick Favors (7.0 percent)

Analysis: The Sixers have a lot of talent, but none of it really fits well together. Last year they drafted Jrue Holiday with their first-round pick, and after a shaky start he came around in the second half of the season. However, as much as the Sixers like Holiday, it's hard to see them passing on Wall if they pick first.

Turner's another player who's a bit of an odd fit given that Andre Iguodala and Thaddeus Young are the best two young players on the roster. I'm not sure how the Sixers would work all three of them into the lineup, but it could precipitate the Iguodala trade we heard about in February.

Favors plays the same position as Elton Brand and Marreese Speights, but he'd be a pick for the future.


Detroit Pistons

Pick 1: John Wall (5.3 percent)

Pick 2: Evan Turner (6.0 percent)

Pick 3: DeMarcus Cousins (7.0 percent)

Analysis: Joe Dumars loves Rodney Stuckey so much that he traded away Chauncey Billups, in part, to give Stuckey more playing time. But as talented as Stuckey is, the Pistons would take Wall if he fell into their laps. Not only is Wall a better prospect, but Stuckey can easily swing to the 2.

With the No. 2 pick, I believe they'd take Turner even though they're already loaded with small forwards and 2-guards.

At No. 3, they'd have a tough choice between Derrick Favors and Cousins. I think the Pistons are one of the few teams that could really handle the volatile Cousins. Dumars was, for the most part, able to keep Rasheed Wallace under control and the Pistons could really use help in the middle.


Los Angeles Clippers

Pick 1: John Wall (2.3 percent)

Pick 2: Evan Turner (2.7 percent)

Pick 3: Wesley Johnson (3.2 percent)

Analysis: The Clippers, as an organization, appear cursed. After they landed the top pick in the draft last year, Blake Griffin promptly sat out the whole season with a stress fracture in his left patella. If they are fortunate enough to get the No. 1 pick again, you can guarantee they're taking Wall. Yes, they still have Baron Davis under contract for a while, but Davis' injury history and Wall's upside make this a good fit.

If the Clips pick second, Turner would also be an excellent fit. He'll essentially replace what Al Thornton did before he was traded, and do it 10 times more efficiently.

Johnson is another intriguing player for them if they land the No. 3 pick. The one thing the Clips lack, with Travis Outlaw heading into free agency, is a long, athletic swingman who can really stretch the defense.


Utah Jazz (via Knicks)

Pick 1: John Wall (2.2 percent)

Pick 2: Evan Turner (2.6 percent)

Pick 3: Wesley Johnson (3.1 percent)

Analysis: Knicks fans can call this the revenge of Isiah Thomas, who dealt this pick to Phoenix in 2004 when he made the Stephon Marbury trade. Phoenix eventually sent it to Utah and it has been heavily protected. But this year the pick is totally unprotected -- a crushing blow to the Knicks' rebuilding effort.

The Jazz are in an interesting conundrum if they land the No. 1 pick because they already have an All-Star point guard in Deron Williams. Some people in Utah think Williams and Wall can play together and I don't doubt it, but I could also see the Jazz dealing the pick if they get it. Turner would be a much better fit for them at both the 2 and the 3. Same with Johnson, as small forward looks like the Jazz's biggest need.


Indiana Pacers

Pick 1: John Wall (1.1 percent)

Pick 2: Evan Turner (1.3 percent)

Pick 3: Derrick Favors (1.6 percent)

Analysis: The Pacers may be proud of their late-season winning streak, but it potentially killed their chances of landing a franchise player in the draft to pair alongside Danny Granger. If the Pacers get lucky, they're going Wall all the way. In fact, of the 14 teams in the lottery, Indiana is the best fit for Wall. The team is in desperate need of a point guard and a star. Wall would own the town.

Turner wouldn't fill as much of a need, but he is the type of player the Pacers have pursued over the years. His versatility could make him a nice long-term upgrade over Mike Dunleavy.

Favors would be a good pick for them at No. 3. The Pacers used their lottery pick last year on Tyler Hansbrough, but they are still in need of long athletes in the frontcourt. Favors is a bit raw, but his long-term potential is massive.


New Orleans Hornets

Pick 1: John Wall (0.8 percent)

Pick 2: Evan Turner (0.9 percent)

Pick 3: Derrick Favors (1.2 percent)

Analysis: The Hornets are loaded at point guard. Not only do they have All-Star Chris Paul, but rookie Darren Collison was dynamite for them in Paul's absence this season. Where would Wall fit? He wouldn't, but I think the Hornets would take him and then figure out what to do later -- they could do everything from trading Paul to trading Wall. The bottom line is you take the best asset available.

Turner is a much better fit for New Orleans in the long term and the Hornets could very well take him No. 1 if they land the top pick and decide they don't want to play all of the trade games.

Favors would also be a good fit. The Hornets are pretty shallow on their front line right now and Favors could be brought along slowly behind David West.


Memphis Grizzlies

Pick 1: John Wall (0.7 percent)

Pick 2: Evan Turner (0.8 percent)

Pick 3: Derrick Favors (1.0 percent)

Analysis: The Grizzlies have never fallen head over heels in love with Mike Conley and have actively shopped him the past few years. With the No. 1 pick, they would take Wall in a heartbeat. Wall combined with O.J. Mayo would give the Grizzlies a very interesting backcourt.

Turner also would be a good fit, especially if the Grizzlies lose restricted free agent Rudy Gay this summer.

Favors, meanwhile, would be a great fit in the long term. The Grizzlies have Zach Randolph under contract for one more year, so finding a replacement for him is also a priority.


Toronto Raptors

Pick 1: John Wall (0.6 percent)

Pick 2: Evan Turner (0.7 percent)

Pick 3: Derrick Favors (0.9 percent)

Analysis: Perhaps no team has more riding on this lottery than the Raptors. If they hit a home run and win the lottery, they would have a stronger argument to convince soon-to-be free agent Chris Bosh to stay in Toronto. Bosh wants to see the Raptors transform into a title contender and with Wall in the picture, that suddenly becomes much more plausible.

GM Bryan Colangelo is also a fan of versatile players like Turner. How he'd fit with last year's free-agent pickup Hedo Turkoglu and last year's lottery pick DeMar DeRozan is a bit of a mystery, but I don't think the Raptors would pass on the chance to get him.

Favors would be more like insurance should Bosh bolt this summer.


Houston Rockets

Pick 1: John Wall (0.5 percent)

Pick 2: Evan Turner (0.6 percent)

Pick 3: Derrick Favors (0.7 percent)

Analysis: Rockets point guard Aaron Brooks just won the league's most improved player award, but he's no John Wall. Ultimately Brooks would be best suited as a high-scoring sixth man should the Rockets land Wall.

Turner does so many different things well, he could be a long-term replacement for Shane Battier.

Favors could fill the big hole Carl Landry left when he was traded to Sacramento.