I need a thread dedicated to DraftKings and FanDuel. I usually play about $5 during the week for NBA and about $15 on Sundays for football. Anyone else involved in DF? If we have enough traction, I need a thread where we can discuss chalk players, sleepers, busts, etc...
Yeah, I've been chronicling my journey lately on my new DFS blog (check link in sig) and I think a weekly thread is a good idea. I cashed last night in an NBA 50/50 but just by the skin of my teeth. Would love to see daily discussion on NBA as well as NFL weeklies.
Awesome, will check it out. Regarding the NFL, I think Im going to stack Cutler and Alshon this weekend as my big play. I'll also have to go through and check out the over/under lines to get a sense of which games I want to target. As far as the NBA, my win rate in 50/50 has been just under 50%, which is pissing me off. Im at about 65% for the NFL, but cant seem to get it right for basketball (even though I go into every night thinking that I nailed it). In any case, Ive started doing a lot more detailed research to set my NBA lineups over the last two days...using Vegas lines, defense vs. position rankings, minutes played, coming off a back to back, etc... I think if we do a weekly thread, it would really allow us to maximize our gains by hearing perspectives of different posters who play.
You really have to stay out of shark infested waters if you want to cash in NBA. Avoid multi-entry 50/50s because sharks lineups are going to dominate those particular fields. (I didn't really understand that and played one last night anyway, finished in the green by literally 1.5 points). The good thing about the NBA is how predictable it is. The bad thing about the NBA is how predictable it is.
I found a bunch of online reading for DFS NFL and all I've managed to do was win my money back so I'm still at my $15 initial bank roll haha. Trying to read up more on DFS for the NBA before I jump into that.
Definitely do like the looks of the Cutler/Jeffrey stack purely based on pace numbers. I also like Rodgers as a contrarian play this week. Think he'll be low owned and play like he's out for blood, even against that Panther D. I don't even know who to pay up for a RB these days. Freeman and Gurley are about all that's left.
I won $1,100 the year Fanduel came out (I think 3 seasons ago now), cashed out, kept $100 in and basically haven't won a game since. I might use the rest of the money I have in my account this weekend. The system is gamed a lot now, people seem smarter, you could almost say there's more to the strategy now than trying to pick the best players at the right price - as crazy as that sounds. That was with with football. I've done basketball maybe 5 or 6 times - always lose.
The industry is just booming. You've got the sharks who play now writing blogs that everyone else reads, possibly baiting you into plays you shouldn't make. Hard to know who to trust. You've got the so-called experts creating algorithms like fantasylabs.com and charging you 60 bucks to gain access to their "formulas". The games themselves are geared to favor higher bankrolls. Do you think you have a shot at winning Millionaire Maker? Maybe against 400,000 random samples, not against 100,000 statistical models. It is nuts, and regulation is going to come swiftly. It has already started in states like Illinois.
One of my NBA lineups for the night on DraftKings: PG - Stephen Curry SG - Marcus Thornton SF - Evan Fournier PF - Luis Scola C - Nikola Vucevic G - Nik Stauskas F - G. Antenokounmpo Util - Russell Westbrook I aim to get 260 points in NBA 50/50 which almost assures a winning lineup on DraftKings. Based on that, and their cost for tonight, I need the following number of points from each guy (in parenthesis, I have their season average)... Curry: 52.52 (59.8) Thornton: 18.2 (26.4) Fournier: 22.88 (31.4) Scola: 17.16 (23.5) Vucevic: 40.04 (40.6) Stauskas: 18.2 (21.6) Antetokounmpo: 35.88 (39.8) Westbrook: 54.6 (57.4) All these guys can perform slightly below their season averages, and that should still be good enough for me to have a winning lineup. Any thoughts or advice?
You would have needed 270 in the 50/50 I did last night because Drummond was 67.9% owned. I mean that lineup looks pretty decent. I did see something today that there is a lot of negative correlation between point totals for players playing on the 2nd night of a road back-to-back so thats something to consider with Vucevic. Also think Jerryd Bayless is a strong play tonight with MCW injured. Big value there.
I prefer H2H over 50/50s and double ups for NBA, but maybe that's just me. I scored 254.75 last night and wouldn't have won in (m)any 50/50s but pretty much broke even in H2H. This is my lineup for today: Spoiler pg: Westbrook sg: Harden sf: Giannis pf: Draymond Green C: Myles Turner (might change if Mahinmi isn't out) G: Thornton F: Fournier util: Bayless
The goods news is that there are a lot of smart people involved with DFS who are genuinely aware that for the betterment of the game, there needs to be more awareness about general tactics and how to succeed. The ugly truth is that unless you have a very good statistical model (Which means you need to be able to code, data-mine, and value certain variables correctly) and 40+ hours to spend on research each week, you aren't going to be able to compete with the big boys. But not everyone is trying to turn this into their day job, they just like it and want to learn more about it.
So I did a 50/50 league and 4 H2H games…ended up winning 4 out of 5 of them. My lowest lineup scored 262.50 and my highest score was 273.5. One of the wins was a H2H against a guy named Kcannon…he's a big time shark…so that made me do one of these --->
Nice, I had a little tourney play going but didn't get there. Only finished at 247. Greek Freak, Gobert, and Ibaka were below average but I really expected more out of Bayless given that he was playing more. Also definitely should have gone Russ over Steph.
You were spot on with Vucevic. He almost screwed me really hard…he did crap in the first half, then hurt himself early in the 3rd and didn't return. I played against Bayless in two of H2H, which luckily helped me out. Still, to end with 247 with that many underperforming is pretty good. Westbrook is basically a triple double waiting to happen every night, Im going to try to find a spot in my lineup every time he plays…given that they don't shoot his price up obnoxiously high.
Yeah, I hit on 2 of 3 of my punts. Sauce Castillo and Jared Sullinger did well. It was my mid-levels and the Bayless punt that really did me in. Ibaka had been rolling nicely but last night he really didn't do much of anything. I was hoping Gobert might be a little more involved offensively but Favors ended up playing so I got a little unlucky there.
Early thoughts on NFL week 9: QB Going to take a risk at QB, either Winston or Mariota. Giants and Saints give up big points to opposing QBs…so trying to get value here. Plus, Winston hopefully gets back Seferian-Jenkins, which will help him out tremendously. Eli, Rivers, and Big Ben have favorable match ups as well, so they are safe bets, which I will use in other lineups. RB Freeman is the chalk player of the week here. I like Langford against the SD run defense…plus, he's only $4,000, so good value here. WR Saving on QB, RB, TE, and Flex, will allow me to go hard here. Rolling with Julio Jones, Antonio Brown, and Alshon Jeffery. TE My toss up of the week…Heath Miller or ASJ. Both guys have high upside with low cost. So, putting Miller at TE and ASJ as my Flex. Def Broncos at $3,000…because I want to root for Luck to get demolished. And because they have held opposing QBs to the lowest point total of any team.
I posted my QB thoughts on my blog yesterday and will be going through RB today. I am also considering Jameis but only if ASJ is back. I think that opens up so much more for them offensively. As far as RB, I think Freeman is about the only chalk left with LB out. Langford I see as a very chalky play as well. I think a lot of people will be going Freeman/Langford so I'm going to be exploring some contrarian ideas. Heath Miller will probably be a popular pick, but I'm thinking ASJ and Gates are better plays. Jacob Tamme is also quietly valuable.
