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Rockets pick wrong year to give up draft pick!

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by barbourdg, Mar 7, 2003.

  1. barbourdg

    barbourdg Contributing Member

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    Rockets pick wrong year to give up draft pick!

    The youth movement is going to send some great great picks down deep into the draft. To bad we won't be there.

    From EPSN insider:

    Brace yourselves college and international basketball fans. Come May, the NBA will experience the largest exodus of underclassmen (both college and international) in the history of the draft.

    Why? Rumors are running rampant among NBA GMs and player agents that NBA commish David Stern is working out a deal with Players Association president Billy Hunter that would create a 20-year-old age limit for the 2004 NBA draft.

    Currently, American high school players are eligible for the draft after their high school senior class graduates. International players must turn 18 by Dec. 31st of the year of the draft.

    The new rule would destroy the distinction between American and international players. Essentially any player wishing to put his name into the draft would have to turn 20 in the year of the draft.

    Stern, who's been pushing for the rule for years, may have finally found a way to get the NBPA (which has always opposed such a rule) on board.

    The rumored compromise would create cap relief for teams that want to sign older veterans but can't because of luxury-tax fears. Older players, who happen to dominate the leadership of the players' executive council, have been complaining for the past few years that aging veterans have been the most adversely affected by the new rules.

    If the two sides work out an agreement soon (Sports Illustrated reported it could happened next month) expect NBA player agents to begin working overtime with teenagers in high school, college and overseas to get them into the draft this year.

    "It will dramatically affect how we handle some of younger clients overseas and some of the kids we're recruiting in high school and college," one prominent NBA player agent said. "If a kid is 17 or 18 right now and NBA teams are interested, it's now or 2005 or 2006. I think some of these kids don't want to wait that long."

    It's already likely that LeBron James (age 18), Darko Milicic (17), Carmelo Anthony (19) and Chris Bosh (19) will declare for this year's draft.

    Top high school prospects like Luol Deng may consider skipping college if the NBA passes an age limit for 2004
    But several other players, including top high school prospects like Kederick Perkins, Luol Deng, Charlie Villanueva, James Lang, Travis Outlaw and Kris Humphries, who were on the fence before, may now be pushed into the draft if the rumors persist.

    None of them, according to several respected NBA scouts, are ready for the NBA. However, the lure of guaranteed money now, as opposed to two years from now, may be too much to pass up. Of course, if they declare, teams will draft them, ready or not.

    "The draft is still about upside," one GM told Insider. "At the end of the day you take the guy who will eventually be the best player, not the kid who's the best player right now."

    Expect an even bigger flood of international players to consider bolting. The advantage they have is that NBA teams can keep them overseas for a few more seasons and develop them. Over the past week young prospects such as Yugoslavia's Kosta Perovic (18 years old), Senegal's Malick Badiane (18), Brazil's Tiago Splitter (17) and Poland's Maciej Lampe (17) have all been rumored to be considering throwing their names in the draft because of the rule change.

    That puts a heavy burden on international scouts.

    The problem, as even the most enthusiastic international scouts will admit, is that international scouting is following the same trend as American scouting. "The kids we are looking at are getting younger and younger," one assistant GM told Insider. "Even three years ago, you pretty much waited until an European kid established himself over there before you seriously looked at him. There were exceptions, like Andrei Kirilenko, but for the most part teams were only comfortable drafting guys who had already become stars on the international scene. Nowadays, we're trying to evaluate kids like Nikoloz Tskitishvili. It's becoming a much riskier proposition."

    That's what made Denver's selection of Tskitishvili, currently the second-youngest player in the NBA, such a risk. Everyone could see his skills in workouts, but no one got a good look at him in a game.

    Without any real game film to go on, teams must rely on international junior competitions, grainy game film, practices (increasingly difficult to get into) and a lot of second-hand accounts.

    This year, Milicic, who turns 18 just weeks before the draft, will be the youngest player ever drafted in the lottery. Fortunately, he starts for his team, giving teams plenty of game film to examine. But for a number of other blue chip international prospects, scouts must increasingly rely on their gut and a little bit of faith.
     
  2. sun12

    sun12 Member

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    Rox does not want another 18-year old kid sitting on the bench anyway with a guaranteed contract.

    Rox still has a 2nd round pick right ?
     
  3. barbourdg

    barbourdg Contributing Member

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    They do have a 2nd round pick, and a possible pick coming from the Bulls.

    I agree they do not want any 18year old kids, but all these kids are going to push down a lot of talented college players deep into the draft. This draft might be like 2 years ago, when the High School kids dominated the top picks.
     
  4. C-Kompii

    C-Kompii Member

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    Correct me if I am wrong, but I thought we traded our 2nd round pick along with Kenny Thomas in a 3 way trade for Posey.

    -G'day-
     
  5. Sane

    Sane Member

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    We got Steve Francis in the deal. Arguably, Steve Francis got us Yao Ming. What's there to regret?
     
  6. GATER

    GATER Contributing Member

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    If there isn't anyone in the draft you'd give up Steve Francis for then it's a moot point IMO. (I haven't seen him but I don't think I'd rather have LeBron James). Also, even if the Rox weren't sure SF was really the future, I think they could get a better player(s) in a trade for him than any lottery pick.

    If this happens, there's a hidden benefit given that the Rockets are so young. Many of the 18 to 20's will drive some very good 3 and 4 year college players into the second round.
     
  7. Deuce

    Deuce Context & Nuance

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    To be honest, while there will probably be a lot of young prospects entering the draft I doubt there will be the "quality" that we had in the most recent draft. Nothing I have read or seen suggests that the next draft will have a lot of "quality" prospects. I don't think the Rockets are losing out here.

    Chris
     
  8. MONON

    MONON Member

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    I think not having a 1st round pick this year could be a blessing in disguise. We have enough young players trying to get playing experience now & don't need a guaranteed contract teenager who hasn't played against players as good as or better than they are. As has been already stated, the influx of these teenagers will push the college players with 3 or 4 years experience into our 2nd round non guaranteed contract grasp. We get more experience for less money.
     
  9. Fegwu

    Fegwu Contributing Member

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    I have a gut feeling that David Stern will get his wish - I like it.


    We don't really need to be in this upcoming draft (at least in the first round) because we have almost all the pieces in place. Baring unforeseen 'third'stances, Boki, Yao, Francis, Eddy, MoT, Cato, Mobley, Tito etc. plus one or two free agents (Mid-Level vets) will be formidable come next season.

    I will prefer if we have a 2nd round draft pick and use it just like San Antonio used their 55th a few years ago to draft Manu Ginobilli - i.e. draft a player and allow him to develope in Europe for a 2 or 3 years. Well that does not always pan out (see Tucsan?) but it is worth the try if all you have is a low 2nd round pick.

    But I doubt if we have any picks left since it is very like the Grizz will get out 1st rounder - and Dencer will get out 2nd rounder. If we choose to, we can get a 2nd round pick for some like Glen Rice if need be - to make room for Boki to assume his throne.
     
  10. TheFreak

    TheFreak Contributing Member

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    The Rockets don't need anymore draft picks.
     
  11. Deuce

    Deuce Context & Nuance

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    Let me also say that I agree, the Rockets DON'T need anymore draft picks. They have ENOUGH "young" players. What they need more of now are a few veterans to help out the young players. We need to let Yao, Griffin, Nachbar, T-Mo, Francis etc develop. Pepper in a few veteran players with our youth movement and we will be ok.

    Chris
     
  12. saleem

    saleem Contributing Member

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    I agree that what we need are veterans who can be effective for the next 3-4 years who can guide our young and immature youth more than draft picks.
     

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