Nothing groundbreaking in the article, but an interesting read, nonetheless. http://grantland.com/the-triangle/nba-windows-houston-rockets-james-harden-dwight-howard/
Great read (as always) from Zach Lowe. An interesting tidbit -- which is more a call-back to a prior article he wrote -- in there about the league's continuing push for lottery reform and the possibility of its institution as early as this upcoming draft. The league's proposal would make the following changes to the current NBA Draft Lottery rules: --The four worst teams would all get the exact same lottery odds (somewhere around 11% each) --The odds across the remainder of the lottery teams would be redistributed, with the "14th slot's" odds going up from 0.5% to 2.0% --The lottery drawings would be for the top SIX picks (instead of just the top three picks) That last bullet-point could be HUGE for the Rockets. The Pelicans pick the Rockets currently hold is only protected at the top for picks 1-3. If the new reforms are pushed through for this upcoming draft, then if the Pelicans miss the playoffs, there is a much higher percentage chance that they could end up with a top-6 pick under the proposed new rules. There would be at least a decent enough (albeit small) chance that pick falls in the 4-6 range! Don't think for a second that the Rockets aren't closely following this issue. If the league's proposal passes for this upcoming draft, the value of that NOP pick will skyrocket.
WOW! That would indeed be huge. Good catch, Bima (and thanks for the read, OP!). Fingers crossed that this goes through for the next draft.
Good article, as if it had any choice with Zach Lowe's name on it. Holding the Rockets to a title window the length of Howard's contract seems a little harsh to me though - it's a standard that no one else really has been held to. You don't hear that about the Spurs or the Thunder or the Clippers or the Bulls, and you only heard it about the Heat because Wade's rapid decline made it James' best option to get out after his first contract. If the Rockets build on their regular-season success this year and make a good playoff run, then have a strong offseason with the flexibility preserved this offseason, there's no reason to preemptively count Howard as bailing.
As long as the Rockets treat Dwight well, he's going to sign an extension. He won't leave money on the table two contracts in a row. And if he did leave, so what? Morey would have enough cap for two stars, instead of one, and you don't think Durant is watching this closely? And that's what all this yapping from Cuban is about, making sure that Durant chooses them over us.
Good catch Bima. The Pelles pick is truly looking like the swing vote that can turn an election. However my main concern with the Rockets facilitating a major trade really has more to do with the contracts the Rockets have to facilitate that type of deal. You look at all the major trades the Rockets could work, and the one thing the Rockets are going to have to be able to do is take 10 to 20 million in salary off that teams books in almost every scenario I see. As examples of potential (hypothetical) deals: -If you are getting Rondo, you are probably going to have to take Wallace and/or Thornton/Bass -If you get Garnett, you are probably going to have to take Jack -If you get Gallinari, you are going to have to take something else back etc. etc. The Rockets don't have that Kevin Martin much the less the Tracy McGrady type of contract to offer this year to get them that flexibility in trade discussions to take on salary for the other team without giving up key contributors like Ariza, all of their young players (some of which are going to be key contributors in the near future), or piss off all of Greece by signing Papanikolaou just to trade him a few weeks later. So while its great to see that the Pelles pick has the potential (much like the NYK pick swap a few years ago did), to be a gold mine, I'm still not sold on the Rockets ability to do just anything with trades just yet. They still seem sort of limited in their options given their limited salary range.
Also something else that has crossed my mind since hearing about the "Fegen List" given to Morey before the Rockets were "Allowed" to sign Dwight to his team of choice. How much do you guys want to bet that Fegen had some sort of stipulation on the Dwight to Houston agreement list that related to his Summer of 2016 contract extension talks? Anyone thinking that ,regardless of health, Dwight might take a discount to sign a long term extension is almost surely going to be disappointed. I have zero doubt that Morey is going to have to make due on a promise to not short change Dwight at all in the Summer of 2016 and make due with a full mega max extension. The difference between Dwight taking a Mega max extension and renegotiating in free agency based on current market value could be detrimental the the Rocket financial future if Dwight and Harden as a duo at that point have proved not being good enough to compete for titles at a high level. (I do, however, feel hopeful about the H2 duo, and Morey's chances to round out the roster in the next 12 months though despite saying this)
You'll need to outline exactly why you feel that Durant would consider coming here instead of NY, LA or Chi. In my mind, if he chooses Houston, he's essentially picking another version of OKC and if he indeed leaves OKC, that tells me that he has decided that playing in such a place won't get him that coveted championship. So why trade out OKC for Houston when they are essentially the same situation?
In nine months, the Harden-Howard tandem becomes iffy because Howard's contract becomes an expiring contract. At this point in time, I get the feeling that Howard is more interested in winning a ring which makes it much less of a lock that he'll stay here and continue to ride the Morey-go-round in the hope that someone else will join him & Harden. Durant wants the same thing which is why I don't feel it's a given that he would come to Houston under these circumstances.
On top of that there is not a single potential lottery team with their pick on the market much less on the market with less than top 3 pick protection. The Pelies pick is the single best 2015 draft pick available in trade at the moment. And there is no potential lottery team that is going to be willing to give up their potential top 6 lottery pick for anything less than a superstar in a trade.
That's why I agree with others that there could be a "leveraging up" move with Terry. Something like Terry and a 2nd for a better player on a one or two year deal around $8-9 million. You could also see something similar with the Lin TPE, choosing to "buy" a player in order to leverage their salaries in a bigger trade. Players to watch: Taj Gibson (liquid contract. Should be able to move him if necessary) Paul Millsap (expiring) Marcus Thornton (expiring) Wilson Chandler - (expiring - nonguaranteed for 2015-2016 season) Jamal Crawford (expiring - nonguaranteed for 2015-2016 season) Steve Nash (expiring) Jordan Hill (expiring - team option for 2015-2016 season) Taysaun Prince (expiring) Ryan Anderson (liquid contract. Should be able to move him if necessary) Jose Calderon (liquid contract. Should be able to move him if necessary) Kendrick Perkins (expiring) Jason Richardson (expiring) Wesley Matthews (expiring) Robin Lopez (expiring) Derrick Williams (expiring) Amir Johnson (non-guaranteed) Landry Fields (expiring) Chuck Hayes (expiring) Enes Kanter (expiring) Brandon Bass (expiring) Obviously, some of these guys will "cost" more than others. The rockets need $14 million in salaries to take back $19 million. Even if you believe the rockets won't trade Papanikolaou, they should be able to get to $14 million fairly easily: $5.9 - Terry $6.5 - Salary acquired via Lin TPE $1.6 - TJones The guy I'm probably most intrigued by is Brandon Bass. Good defensive player, good mid-ranger shooter, and expiring contract. Boston is in the luxury tax, so it shouldn't cost much, if anything, to get him. Even if you have to give up a 2nd, hes worth it. Beverley / Canaan / Johnson Harden / Daniels / Terry Ariza / Papanikolaou / Garcia TJones / Bass / Capela Howard / DMo / Dorsey I'm assuming Covington, Powell, Adrien, and Ish get cut.
Just a joke, but it would definitely not make Morey any friends in the international community. Papanikolaou took a gamble coming over to the NBA, and Morey really doesn't need to be burning bridges with agents and player over in Europe given the fact that they utilize that talent pool as much as they do. Look... if they have to trade Papanikolaou they have to do it, but I'm just saying that I sincerely doubt that Morey really brought him over for that purpose, and I highly doubt that Kostas and his agent take the contract offer they did if they knew just weeks into signing his deal, he's be dangled in trade talks to teams he has no choice in playing for. Also his deal is now non-guaranteed. If Morey was to trade him before his deal becomes guaranteed and that team then waived him, can you imagine how much flack Morey would receive for delivering such a low blow to a well regarded player like that? Unless Kostas stinks it up, and doesn't earn a spot in the rotation, I highly doubt we see him involved in trade talks this year.
I found this section interesting: Rockets prescient on this issue? With a churning roster, by design or a product of league rules, it could be counter-productive to implement complex stuff.
Terry and Papanikolaou are plenty enough salary to pull off almost any trade, especially if you throw in another cheap player or two. Plus, the Lin TPE can be used to absorb unwanted salary from the other team. If the Rockets are giving up the Pelicans pick or someone like Jones in a trade, they're probably not going to also take back an unwanted individual salary in excess of $8.4M.
If I viewed Papanikolaou as a trade-able contract contract between now and February, I would agree with you, but I just can't see Morey including him in talks without serious repercussions in the process. If you have to trade Kostas to get a game changing deal, you HAVE TO do it, and lackluster play in the first few weeks of the season will make this decision much easier. However I just can't see the decision to include Papanikolaou right now in trade talks not having a harmful impact on the Rockets relationships with the international hoops community. Morey will make the cold business decisions when he has to, but this one would even put a bad taste in my mouth if it bit Kostas in the backside for signing with Houston. And I'm pretty cold hearted myself.
Decent article, I definitely would not bank on Howard staying unless Morey proves this year he's still got the magic.
