As of today, with one game left to play, the Rockets season record stands at 45-36. Should they win tonight, they will finish the season at 46-36 which is right about where I predicted at the start of the season. Should this come to pass, they will have improved their record versus last season by a whopping 3 games. The question I'd like to submit for discussion is: Can this be considered real progress? True, they did make the playoffs as the 7th seed in the West. It's also true that in their division - the Midwest - 6 out of the 7 teams qualified for the post-season (Utah being left out) whereas in the Pacific division, only Los Angeles & Sacramento qualified. In fact, in the Pacific division, out of the teams that failed to qualify for the post-season, only Portland has a chance to finish up the year without a losing record. Not so for the Rockets who play in the toughest division in the league. What concerns me is the apparent lack of demonstrable improvement in their win-loss record in recent years. For the past 5 years, they (Rockets) appear to have become stuck in the 40-48 win range with the exception being the Steve Francis "migraine" year. Four of those years were with Rudy T at the helm. This year with Van Gundy as coach, they stand to improve on last year's record by only 3 games (assuming Dallas does indeed mail it in tonight). Now compare this with the records of Memphis or Denver both of whom appear to have shown greater improvement this season. Memphis improved from 28-54 in 2002-2003 to 50-31 this year - a 12 win improvement. Denver made the most dramatic improvement going from 17-65 in 2002-2003 to 43-38 - a whopping 26 win improvement. The Rockets? Well in 2002-2003 their record was 43-39. This year the best they can finish is 46-36 - a 3 game improvement. Looking back at the 2001-2002 season (the SF "migraine" season), the differences become more pronounced. The 3 teams in question finished 11th (Rockets 28-54), 12th (Denver 27-55) & 13th (Memphis 23-59) in the Western Conference. For the record, the 2000-2001 Rockets posted a 45-37 record. These numbers would appear to indicate that while the 2003-2004 Rockets did improve enough to make the playoffs, their overall progress appears to be less than that of the two teams formerly behind them notably Denver & Memphis. Given that they play in the toughest division in the league, they simply have to do a MUCH better job of finding and evaluating talent if they expect to keep pace in the future. It will be most interesting to see what moves (if any) JVG and the organization will enact to propel this team forward in the years to come.
Not to bash SF or any other players, but I think: 1. The pieces still don't fit too well; we can hardly see some good chemistry between them. 2. We are still trying to establish our identities towards a center-oriented team. But Yao is still inconsistent once a while and our victory still largely decided by perimeter shooting. 3. Remove SF or not, we need to find someone run the offense instead SF, cut the turnovers and make good decision. We also need a strong PF who can contribute in both ends. 4. Strong leadership on the court and in the locker room. Yao and SF are our two best players. But I think they are both fragile under the pressure, just in different ways. If we solve above issues, I believe we could have break through season next year.
Good post. We have had trouble turning into an inside-out team, and we should be since we've been running a guard oriented team for the last 5 years. But we saw glimpses of how unstoppable we can be if we get the right guys.
I think this would best be answered after the playoffs have finished. Based on this logic, the Sacramento Kings haven't really made that much progress, either.
There is also diminishing marginal returns. Denver and Memphis had very poor records and therefore their improvement is much more pronounced. When teams are already in the 40 win range (like the Rockets), it becomes more and more difficult to win extra games. I think a three game improvement from 43 to 46 is more meaningful than, say a 7 or 10 game improvement from 20 to 30 or even 30 to 37. Getting much more than 45 wins requires wins against pretty good teams. Lakers, Kings, Memphis, Dallas, Spurs, Wolves, Pistons, Pacers, Nets, Denver, Utah, and Portland constitute 40 total games for the Rockets. So even if we win all other games against other teams, we would still need 4 wins against these guys to get to 46 wins in a season. We would need to beat these teams even more often to get above 46 wins. In the end, I think we've made some improvement but a much bigger leap is necessary to get to the next level.
I honestly feel our progress is somewhat stunted by the fact that we lost Posey/Thomas as well as Eddie Griffin and another first round pick in Nachbar has pretty much been a non-factor. Posey and Griffin were our starting forwards last year. Additionally Francis has not improved his game, he has regressed. You just can't improve with that kind of talent loss and/or non-improvement in the players games. The only thing that has curbed those factors is the improvement in Yao Ming's game and the great FA acquisition of Jim Jackson. Our team would be a 50+ winning team if we had kept Posey, Griffin improved and put up Chris Bosh type numbers, Nachbar improved and put up solid numbers and THEN we added bench depth in Jim Jackson etc. I think we can get to the 50 win plateau but we have to add more talent to the roster across the board and our star players have to continue to improve their games.
Deuce, you are spot on. I would add that JVG was inflexible in the length of rotation and did a lousy job with Pike. Somehow both Boki and Pike should be legitimate contributors at this point. On any other team they would be a factor on their team.
With them facing the Kings in round one, one can expect their playoff appearance to be a rather brief one. All that I'm looking for is some evidence that there is genuine improvement being made here - that they ARE making stides toward becoming a legitimate contender for the title. So far, I have just not seen anything to lead me to believe that this is indeed the case with the Rockets.
Considering Steve's performance, we're making progress. Before the season start can you imagine we have 45-37 with Steve having the worst career year ?
How long did it take the Mavs, Kings, Grizzlies, to become contenders. The Mavs haven't been contenders since the late eighties. The Kings, have they ever been contenders till recently. The Grizzlies, 9 years of lotto picks and finally. Denver hasn't been in the playoffs for 9 years. The Timberwolves have been in existence for 15 years and problem have been true contenders in just the past 4. The Lakers probably weren't true contenders from 92 till 98. The Spurs is the only team that has been a consistent contender since the Rockets won a championship, and that largely has to do with drafting to of the best big men of the last 20 years. My point, the problem with the Rockets is the patience or lack of from the fans more than the team's progress.
griffin, and posey not being here really hurt us. we allways say we want a 4 who is quick, can hit from the outside and rebound/contest shots....we wouldve had that in griffin. the way posey plays is great. he too, would be a great fit for what we want. a tough defender/rebounder with a good outside shot. we would be 50+ wins this year for sure.
Plus, This season the West is even stronger. If we were playing last years teams we probably could have gotten to fifty.
The Rockets are a team in transition, making the playoffs is progress. I was thinking 47 wins given all the personel changes, so we are about where I thought we'd be. The extent of our progress is going to depend on how we do in the playoffs.
I agree that patience with this team is in rather short supply. Had they not made the playoffs this year, things would have really gotten ugly here at ClutchFans. I believe that the central issue with this team is not so much patience but faith. Do you have faith in this organization to deliver a championship? If the answer is yes, then it will be easy to be patient. My problem is that I have lost faith in CD & the rest of the organization to deliver the goods. With the bad contracts (Cato, Mo T, Moochie), bad drafts (I won't get started about EG again...), cut-rate free agent acquisitions (the Rocket rest home for ex-Knicks), stupid free agent acquisitions (Adrian "I'm hurt...again" Griffin) and questionable personnel decisions (KT, Posey). I find no reason to believe they are smart enough to do what's necessary to get this team to the next level. That's why today we see Memphis ahead of us with Denver close behind us - their organizations are simply superior to what we have here and the proof is in the standings. We've just come off a period of 4 straight years in the lottery which should have given them a shot at finding some pretty good talent but unfortunately, that is not the case at all. Outside of Yao Ming & JJ, the Rockets have been unable to significantly upgrade their roster in any meaningful way while a Dallas, who's already loaded, can pick up a Marquis Daniels or draft a Josh Howard while CD and the boyz just manage to muddle along in mediocrity.
How is the West stronger? Utah lost two hall of famers, Dallas isn't as good, SA isn't as good, the Kings aren't as good, Portland is worse, Phoenix is worse. The T-Wolves, Nuggets, and Grizz got better. I think that's a net decrease not increase...
It's clear the team as a whole got slightly better than last season. You can contribute this to their natural progress by playing together one more year, or JVG's coaching is making the difference. One notable improvement is their consistency. I know they are not as consistent as we'd like they to be, but compare to last year, they are much better. Last year, they'd beat the elite teams one night, lost to the lottery team the next game. We still do that, but to a much less frequency. This is evident by the records we compiled against EAST and WEST. A more interesting question is, did this team do as good as you think they shoud achieve this season? My answer is they are slightly below my expectation.
The team is in their first year of a dramatically different system than the Rudy Era. There will be changes to match JVG's play, but securing a 7th seed is an accomplishment. In the new CBA era, how many championship finalists have gotten themselves back within 10 years and a different core? We're 3 years removed from Dream's shadow. The Lakers The Spurs who got lucky with TD The Knicks got lucky with a weak EC and inspired play The Pacers are doing a great job keeping their peak Are there any more? We were spoiled into thinking that we could keep contending with superstar trades and making drastic changes. We're ignoring how normally teams usually take several years to build chemistry and an identity with the same coach. I'm not sure if CD's and JVG's have matching visions on how a team works, but these aren't last years Rockets, and I see the differences will be clearer every new year.
Totally agree. If Steve was not lucky enough to win the lottery, this team will suck big time. The management has done nothing intelligent for the past 4 years, but they can make up for it during this off-season. Let's see who they will sign and trade.
simple as this our team is built for the long haul, not just a flash in the pan type of thing. I dont think the nugs and griz will be there for the long run.
