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Grantland - NBA Lottery Reform is Coming

Discussion in 'NBA Dish' started by jordnnnn, Jul 16, 2014.

  1. fleecysphere

    fleecysphere Member

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    Actually, it kind of is...
     
  2. JuanValdez

    JuanValdez Contributing Member

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    I understand wanting to disincentivize tanking, but I think you don't want to go too far in the other direction. The NBA is balancing deterrence of tanking with the need to inject more talent into bad teams. I'd worry if you tip too far toward deterrence, it'll take too long for bad teams to pull themselves up by their bootstraps. If you're worried about fans tuning out because their team is tanking, you should also worry that they tune out because their team is taking too long to recover from sucking.

    As a matter of fact, the latter case is worse, because the team has less control over it. When they control how uncompetitive they are, they can always choose to become more competitive when revenue from arena attendance goes down. The shot-in-the-arm of a #1 pick can help turn that around quickly. If they're just relying on free agency and convincing marquee players to come to a bad team, it might take awhile.

    And that's the other dimension of it -- tanking for a draft pick is only one species of tanking. The other is tanking for cap space. Namely, dumping all your current players to make a bunch of cap room to chase max free agents. Taking away a draft carrot won't deter teams from following this strategy. And teams that can't count on building through the draft may actually have a greater incentive to clear their cap space as the only remaining method of rapid improvement.

    Powerful argument.
     
  3. WinkFan

    WinkFan Contributing Member

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    Maybe it's sematics, but I disagree that the NBA incentives tanking. The nature of basketball incentives tanking. Other sports just have drafts based simply on record without tanking being an issue.
     
  4. Aleron

    Aleron Contributing Member

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  5. heypartner

    heypartner Contributing Member

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    How does the NFL not have tanking?

    Sure, tanking in the NBA has more success, but that is because the nature of the game where one player can make a HUGE difference. The difference between the #1 pick and #2 is often huge. Thus, why NBA has a lottery vs NFL. But they both have tanking.
     
  6. heypartner

    heypartner Contributing Member

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    Posted this yesterday in the GARM version of this thread. This was a recap of a draft reform idea I floated during the last lockout.

    http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showpost.php?p=9129314&postcount=31

     
  7. JeffB

    JeffB Contributing Member
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    Fair points, all around.

    The wheel concept unties drafting from team record. And as you and the Grantland article note, missing on a pick can have tougher consequences as at team may not get to draft in the top 6 for another 5 years.

    With the wheel: a team drafts in the top 12 every 4 years and in the top 6 every 5 years.

    Per the article:
    As you also note, that is just one aspect of tanking. Teams may tank for cap space -- as some do already -- in hope for signing a major free agent. Altering the draft merely eliminates a single form of tanking. But it is eliminated, nonetheless.

    It ultimately depends on how teams weigh draft-tanking versus free-agent tanking. I think the former is more attractive than the latter as the draft is in control of the team while free-agency is controlled by the player. The risk of tanking for a free agent may limit the number of teams willing to pursue that strategy.

    What I suspect we may be more likely to see are teams that will put more value on cap flexibility while fielding a competitive roster in order to attract free agents. Kinda what Morey has tried to do during his tenure as GM. It will also mean teams will have to value utilizing the D-League and foreign scouting to find and develop talent. Teams will have to adopt models closer to the Spurs to remain competitive.

    I just think that there are many more avenues for team building that competent organizations can pursue and that the current record-based system punishes teams for trying to be competitive, despite lack of talent.
     
  8. JeffB

    JeffB Contributing Member
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    I like this idea, too. But there will just be tanking for cap space, Philly-style. It does reward fiscally responsible management. But it can also be gamed by teams like the Spurs, whose star players take far below market value contracts. It wouldn't be too tough for such a team to clear capspace for 1-season in which there is a strong draft.
     
  9. heypartner

    heypartner Contributing Member

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    In my opinion...it's the best we can do. The lottery will reward something. Let's reward fiscal responsibility. imo, it's the only way to reward mediocre teams who are trying to make the playoffs (not tank) and are fiscally responsible.

    That's the key. It puts the #14 team on the same playing field as others, if they have capspace.


    As I said, the bidding game can only be played by lotto teams. Teams who make the playoffs gets slots 15-30 based on record, as usual.

    We could tweak this too by saying you can only bid if the pick is yours, not via trade.


    Note also, it's a very risky business to use all or part of your capspace on a draft pick. That's one of the key points in my idea. Teams who win, must actually pay the player their bid as a bonus, such that they lose that capspace right before the FA season. Teams aren't going to bid all their capspace on draft picks, necessarily. Spurs never had to.

    Note: per CBA rules, the capspace is what remains from the whole previous season. Teams would have to go an entire summer and regular season preserving their capspace for the draft...since the draft always happens before new Caps are announced.

    I think this is a very simple idea, with a lot of excitement via a sealed-bid system. The only caveat I can think of is the Players Union would say that it hurts vets. I'm no so sure. Once we see teams blow capspace on busts, teams will be hesitant to do it.
     
    #29 heypartner, Jul 17, 2014
    Last edited: Jul 17, 2014
  10. J.R.

    J.R. Member

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    <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Lottery reform vote at NBA Board of Governors Wednesday. 23 of 30 votes to pass. Philly/OKC will vote &quot;No&quot; but support short on stopping it.</p>&mdash; Adrian Wojnarowski (@WojYahooNBA) <a href="https://twitter.com/WojYahooNBA/status/524303786748022784">October 20, 2014</a></blockquote>
    <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
     
  11. NotChandlerParsons

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    Nice, makes the Pellies pick slightly more valuable.
     
  12. JuanValdez

    JuanValdez Contributing Member

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    Only if the reform is implemented quickly, which I think they'd be foolish to do.
     
  13. NotChandlerParsons

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    The NBA, foolish? Well I never :p
     
  14. AFS

    AFS Member

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    Why will OKC vote no? Are they preparing for the inevitable departure of their superstars?
     
  15. ling ling

    ling ling Member

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    I like the draft wheel, but it should only affect the top few pics, which is where it really matters. It prevents teams from tanking multiple seasons for multiple high draft picks.

    If you:
    pick 1, you will be out of the top 10 for the next 3 years.
    pick 2, out of top 8 for next 3 years
    pick 3, out of top 5 for next 3 years
    pick 4, out of top 5 for next 2 years
    pick 5, out of top 5 next 1 year.
     
  16. Williamson

    Williamson JOSH CHRISTOPHER ONLY FAN
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    I like that the wheel completely divorces the draft from rankings - but as others have mentioned, if the next Lebron James is slated to be the #1 pick in the draft and Minnesota is scheduled to draft first this year, but the Knicks or the Lakers get the first pick next year, or even the year after that, what is to stop them from just waiting until they can go to a more desirable team/market? Especially if their agent has the data that says they'll make enough money to more than offset the year or two of lost wages if they land in one of the biggest markets?

    I would think, then, the only way they could regulate that is if players could ONLY come out after their senior year. And the players union would never let that happen.
     
  17. NotChandlerParsons

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    I think it'd be very unlikely for us to see that, by staying in school you're always risking injury or a slide in the draft. Even if playing in a big market or just a non-crap team appeals to you, you're leaving a multimillion dollar guaranteed deal on the table.
     
  18. BigBenito

    BigBenito Member

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    Because they would be hypocrites if they did vote for it after building their team that way.



    But really what you said x 1000
     
  19. what

    what Member

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    The opnly reason Rocket fan likes this is because the rockets hardly ever draft a player from the lottery. Their team is comprised of free agents.
     
  20. Carl Herrera

    Carl Herrera Contributing Member

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    How did the Rockets end up with Patrick Patterson, Marcus Morris and Jeremy Lamb during 3 consecutive seasons?

    I personally just want to watch games without thinking that one of these teams shouldn't be trying to win. I also don't like reading all the internet chatter about fans rooting against their own teams. There will still be fans rooting for tanking, but the fewer incentives the better.
     

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