Seeing that the bullpen was more responsible than any other spot for getting us knocked out of the playoffs, and there is a lot of talk about what we will do there, figured this deserves it's own thread as opposed to being stuck in the general offseason stuff. First off I think the two guys that started the year as the 8th and 9th inning guys, Gregerson and Neshek, are still quality relievers, but neither is obviously a lock down closer. Their rate of use ramped up quite a bit later in the season, and the results suffered. The total innings might not have changed, but the number of times they were asked to throw back to back nights, and probably more importantly 3 nights in a row, 4 games in 5 nights, and situations like that went up. If we could add a true shut down closer and push Luke back to the 8th, moving Neshek into more of a 7th inning role that could easily be shared with others reducing his work rate, we could have a dominant bullpen. Even last year despite how it ended, the overall pen was one of the better ones in baseball. So the question is, who should we go after, and how... 1) Chapman is obviously the top choice, but the cost would be great in terms of prospects. I think one of (Appel, Feliz, Martes) would have to be the top piece in a deal that would also need other valuable pieces. Appel/P Tucker/Aplin, something like that would probably get it done? Personally i'd take a shot on something along those lines even knowing we would only be guaranteed Chapman for one year 2) Miller is right there behind Chapman, but the fact that he is signed for 3 more years at 9 million per year means the cost in prospects/players would be even higher. The Yankees would be much more interested in players who could help them now obviously, as they are not in a rebuild mode like Cincy. A guy like VV would likely interest the Yankees greatly, but what in addition would it cost. VV + Fiers get it done? Probably need another piece 3) Giles...I don't have a clue what the cost would be for Giles, or why Philly would be wanting to move him. 25 year old closer who was very good would seem to fit what they want/need right now themselves. And if you are the Astros are you looking for a young guy who has shown some success, or a truly proven guy who could lock down games for you? I would do a 1 for 1 type of deal, Feliz for him, something like that if Philly preferred a starter to a closer, but wouldn't do much more Obviously there could be other guys they are talking about that we don't know are available, but other than someone that is totally off of the media radar as available right now, those are probably the only three guys available that would be clear upgrades to Gregerson. So if not one of those three, we probably still have Luke as the closer but need to add more quality depth down there 1) Darren O'Day...has been very good for 4 years straight now. He could be a solid guy to add to the 7th/8th inning mix, really could be that one additional arm down there that could give the pen some length. Not the shut down 9th inning guy a lot of us would want, but could be a difference maker 2) Antonio Bastardo...now here is a guy who would make a lot of people nervous, but could be a 7th/8th inning strikeout arm, a guy who throws the 6th when needed but could also come in when the situations calls for a K and get one. 3) Trade for a 7th/8th inning guy. This is the most likely senario, if they decide they don't want to move any of the top prospects in a deal for a pen arm. Impossible to predict who that could be, as these guys don't get much press coverage even if they are being discussed There are some prospect arms that could probably fit the bill in this role also, but Luhnow hasn't really shown that he is ready to take a guy like Appel/Feliz and try them in a high stress late game bullpen role. And probably for all the right reasons, a dominant starter is generally thought of as more valuable than a really good closer. Personally, if Appel could be the lead piece of a deal to get Chapman here, i'd do it and do it now. He would make us the AL favorite in my opinion
McCullers would make an outstanding closer. Just love his demeanor and moxie. In any case, I can't believe there isn't any option in our farm. Ferrell looks good but isn't ready. After that it seems that all we have are valuable starters. Where's our next Billy Wagner or Brad Lidge?
I think there are some options in our farm, just none that are 1) Ready (Ferrell) or 2) At the point where Luhnow is willing to move them to the pen and off the starter role yet (Feliz, Appel, VV)
The Astros are not giving up VV and Fiers for Miller and they certainly are not giving up Martes/Appel and other pieces for a single season of Chapman at $12-13,000,000 next year. There are other options out there such as Melacon and possibly Robertson.
Melancon wouldn't come much cheaper So if you think my ideas are so crazy What is the answer at closer We aren't getting a lock down closer without giving up top prospects
The Market says that closers are netting a substantial haul of prospects. Good thing is that the competition who'd give that quantity of prospects netted their guys. I would not expect the Astros to go crazy, but you never know. But, I am almost dreading what they give up for an elite closer. I am sure a lot of you who've followed the minor leagues do too.
I think with the depth that we have in our system, Luhnow will be willing to move a package of prospects for a closer to give us a greater chance to win it all next year. He understands we don't have room for all of them to progress to the majors, he understands all of them won't pan out, and he has the confidence that he can continue to replace them. That said, plenty around here will be upset with the cost when a trade happens
He'll move prospects, and quality ones at that, but how much? Velasquez would certainly be available for Miller, but Velasquez & Fiers is a lot for a closer. He's certainly worth a lot though. I could see us giving up one of Fiers/Velasquez/Appel/Martes/Feliz/Musgrove, just not 2.
If we had Miller it's conceivable we beat KC last year. It's also conceivable that we get better via young player improvement this year. Personally don't think we need another starter but you can't go wrong there. I think Colin MCHugh is going to be even better next year. His slow start was attributed to working on that cutter. My bold prediction is that his Era will be lower than Dallas K's this upcoming year.
I didn't say your idea was crazy. I said the Astros would not give up Fiers and VV/Appel for Miller or Chapman. Other posters have said the same. Do I think they would give up VV for Miller? Yes I do, Miller has 3 years left on his deal at a reasonable contract, he has limited mileage on his arm and can go more than 1 inning. Do I think they would give up Appel? No I don't. For Chapman? Well Chapman is negligibly better, but he makes $4,000,000 more next season and then he is a free agent. You get a number #1 for him when you give him the QO, but Appel/VV is worth more than a #1. Melancon would not cost as much as Miller or Chapman. There are also other options out there. The Astros passed on KRod, which didn't really cost much. There is Ramos, Storen, Pappelbon and Vizcaino that all are possible. That doesn't include players like Capps that were dominant in a non closing situation. The Astros will not hold onto all their prospects, they will decide the prospects they feel strongly about (Correa, McCullers, probably Appel) and trade high on those they are not as high on but have value (Phillips, Nottingham). However, you have to be careful dealing prospects for a pitcher that gives you 60 innings a year. The feeling was that the Red Sox over paid for Kimbrel. However they got the best closer in baseball, under team control for 3-4 more years and they arguably didn't give up as good a package as VV/Appel & Fiers.
The Astros have a moderately deep system. The Astros are likely willing to move a package of prospects for a closer. I don't see those two as related as most do. It isn't like the Astros are so deep that they are leaving top 200 prospects available for Rule 5 (so tempted to put a V there just for Buck). Astros shouldn't be willing to pay more just because they have more prospects. They should still try to seek fair value. Granted, it is likely easier for the Astros to make a deal because odds are there is something the Astros have on farm that other team is likely to want.
The Astros passed on a chance to get KRod and Lind at the deadline in a fruitless effort to get Kimbrel. They were criticized for pen issues and to an extent deserved to be. However, in fairness the Astros did offer Miller more than the Yankees did in free agency. The Astros also offered a large contract to Robertson as a free agent. They tried to get an over powering closer without losing elite prospects. Yes, it is very likely the Astros beat the Royals with Miller closing and Gregerson setting him up. They should, but it isn't a guarantee. McCullers could become a lock down #1-2 or he could have command issues and end up in AAA. Reed could get a strangle hold on first base for the next 10 years and become a prime 30 homer 380 OBP hitter....... or he could become a Richie Sexton type player or could turn into Eric Anthony... no one knows. There is a whole lot of starting pitching depth in the organization, and while most are not #1-2 starters, they are #3 types and those have a lot of value. You have Appel, VV, Feliz, Musgrave and others. I think you will see some of them packaged for a legitimate #1-2 starter in trade. That is mostly what the Astros covet. There is already discussion he is being shopped.
I have never understood this perspective either. Just because the Astros have a good system (and I personally think it is more than moderately deep, I think it is very deep), doesn't mean that you start overpaying. That hasn't been the Astros mode of operating under Luhnow and I do not think that it will start now.
I am wondering why we are not making a more aggressive push for O'Day. The acquisition cost for him is just dollars. That, to me, is a big deal, as we would not have to over-spend in prospects to get the likes of Chapman or Miller (I love the idea of adding Chapman by the way, I just don't see it feasible at the moment unfortunately). And reports that I have read is that he is looking for 4 years guaranteed, in the $28-35M range. If we could do the lower end of that range, and nab him for $7M AAV, then I pull the trigger on the deal. I understand that he is 33 already, but I put less weight on the age risk for relievers. I also think the 4th year he is looking for can actually make the deal more valuable. As salaries will do nothing but rise, we might be locking in on a below-market rate for an additional year. The market rate currently for a top-tier RP is probably $6-7M or so. But in two or three years, the market rate for a reliever of O'Day's quality could very well jump to the $8-10M range. Signing O'Day might not make the impact of trading for Aroldis Chapman (again my preference in a perfect world), but when you consider the acquisition costs for all of our options, then O'Day becomes more and more of a realistic improvement. I also hope that we can sign Korean closer Seung-hwan Oh. For many of the same reasons above, I think we can sign an eventual shut down closer for way under-market. I think the risk is much greater with a potential Oh signing, but so is the possible reward. And worse case scenario is that we sign Oh and he completely flops, and is a sunk cost. His contract shouldn't be high enough where it would blow our budget and completely eliminate our financial flexibility. Signing both O'Day and Oh (for roughly equivalent of the salary that Chapman will get for this year alone) might be the most prudent and cost-effective way to improve our bullpen.
