[Fox 26] Darin Erstad Agrees to Terms with Astros

[RocketManJosh]

Originally Posted by Ottomaton I disagree. I think the pitching outlook for next year is worse, as difficult as that is to imagine.

I don't see how it could be unless you expect Roy to have a terrible year too.

[MadMax]

Originally Posted by Ottomaton I disagree. I think the pitching outlook for next year is worse, as difficult as that is to imagine.

really?? why? what did we lose?

i'm thinking the addition of backe can't make us worse.

and i'm still betting we add one more arm.

[Refman]

Originally Posted by MadMax really?? why? what did we lose? i'm thinking the addition of backe can't make us worse. and i'm still betting we add one more arm.

What are ya willing to bet on that? :D

[OldManBernie]

Originally Posted by RocketManJosh I don't see how it could be unless you expect Roy to have a terrible year too.

Before last season, we had hope that Jennings would be a solid 2 or 3 pitcher, and Woody would be a solid 3 or 4. We have no such hope for players to step into those roles this year. It's the same staff as last year essentially, but the outlook is MUCH worse than it was before last season.

[Rocketman95]

Anyone hear John Lopez whining about this move?

[RocketManJosh]

Originally Posted by OldManBernie Before last season, we had hope that Jennings would be a solid 2 or 3 pitcher, and Woody would be a solid 3 or 4. We have no such hope for players to step into those roles this year. It's the same staff as last year essentially, but the outlook is MUCH worse than it was before last season.

Wait a minute ... we are not talking about this years expectations versus last years expectations. We are talking about this years expectations versus last years results. Last years expectations are worthless at this point.

We have roughly the same pieces so I expect similar results this year as we got last year. Maybe we'll even get lucky and one of our pitchers will have a breakthrough year and we can be better. I just dont see how we go downhill in pitching unless Roy has a bad year.

[RocketManJosh]

Originally Posted by Rocketman95 Anyone hear John Lopez whining about this move?

What's he got to whine about? Its a low cost short term deal for someone who is going to have a minimal impact on the team.

[Drewdog]

Originally Posted by Rocketman95 Anyone hear John Lopez whining about this move?

I did. Lopez sucks....

[Rocketman95]

Originally Posted by RocketManJosh What's he got to whine about? Its a low cost short term deal for someone who is going to have a minimal impact on the team.

He said they should focus all their resources on pitching. As if this signing means we can't sign another starter. Guy's a moron.

[Ottomaton]

Originally Posted by RocketManJosh Wait a minute ... we are not talking about this years expectations versus last years expectations. We are talking about this years expectations versus last years results. Last years expectations are worthless at this point.

I don't want to weigh this down with statistics unless you want to enter that conversation, but if you compare last year's real results with next years proposed best case, you aren't really comparing apples to apples.

For instance, you can hope that Backe gets 25-30 starts for the second time in his career, but realistically, if you hitch your horse to the idea that he will get more than 10 starts for the second time in 7 years, you are not planning realistically.

I can go on with each pitcher on the staff with the exception of Oswalt. If everything goes great and pitchers 1-5 all manage 30 starts and all pitch fairly well then the pitching staff can be pretty decent. But do you really want to plan with those parameters? Do you want to bet that you will have five guys all suddenly get in the zone at the same time while nothing unexpected happens?

As much as everything can go right, you can have a bunch of unexpected road bumps. Someone can step on Oswalt's big toe and he could miss 3 months. In your 'plan' potential unexpected breakthroughs have to be negated by potential unexpected disappointments.

But I think even if you plan for reasonable expectations, without any major off years from anybody, the team doesn't have enough pitchers to fill every start with even mediocre or young MLB pitchers - warm bodies like Albers. Next year's Albers analog is significantly less talented and significantly worse.

Originally Posted by RocketManJosh We have roughly the same pieces so I expect similar results this year as we got last year. Maybe we'll even get lucky and one of our pitchers will have a breakthrough year and we can be better. I just dont see how we go downhill in pitching unless Roy has a bad year.

Not true. There were more than 40 starts made by people who are no longer under contract with the Astros.

As far as things not getting worse, do you remember 'Lima Time' once he got Enron Shock after leaving the dome? Remember the never particularly talented Chris Holt in his last year give up hit after hit after hit, or how painful it was to watch Shane Reynolds trying to throw like he used to and getting shelled?

That is what the Astros will put out there if anybody gets hurt. Anybody at all. We will trot out the damaged goods, the 'has been', or the 'never was' to throw the ball. As we put in crappy starters, the strain will be alleviated by the 'pen. In turn, the good pitchers will have to eat more innings to alleviate the strain on the relievers. Everybody gets overworked. Everybody suffers. Things can definitely get worse.

Edit:
The one exception is Paulino, who I guess would be the 'not ready' as opposed to the other categories. He is apparently MLB level talent. They will plug him in first but everything I see and read indicates he is supremely talented but nowhere near polished enough to do much better than his 7.11 ERA.

[Plowman]

Erstad was always overrated but has dealt with injuries too.

That said even on the downside he brings quality versatility cheap....consumate pro who is a good guy in the clubhouse.

I actually see Dayton going all way with this now and somehow procuring a solid 2.

[right1]

Originally Posted by Dr.Strangelove Erstad was always overrated

1st pick overall in '95. 240 hits and .355 batting average. Not many people can say that.

[Plowman]

Originally Posted by right1 1st pick overall in '95. 240 hits and .355 batting average. Not many people can say that.

Your right.I guess the injuries took their toll.Erstad would give it up out there.

He dropped off drastically from that. (kinda lived on that rep for most of his career as things slid) That's what I meant,you know?

[MadMax]

Originally Posted by Rocketman95 He said they should focus all their resources on pitching. As if this signing means we can't sign another starter. Guy's a moron.

The very worst reporter in town. He's so biased against the Astros it's ridiculous...all stemming from his, "Drayton hates Hispanics" editorial from years back. Every move they make is one he questions. He plays well to the whiners who pack sports radio, though.

[Mr. Clutch]

Lopez is an idiot. Drayton hates blacks, not hispanics.

[Bobblehead]

Originally Posted by Mr. Clutch Lopez is an idiot. Drayton hates blacks, not hispanics.

No, they signed two nigro player named Reggie Abercrombie and Michael Bourn.


The big question is...where are all the Jews????

[RKREBORN]

Originally Posted by Bobblehead No, they signed two nigro player named Reggie Abercrombie and Michael Bourn. The big question is...where are all the Jews????

In the luxury suites.

[DaDakota]

Can he pitch?

[Rocketman95]

Originally Posted by MadMax The very worst reporter in town. He's so biased against the Astros it's ridiculous...all stemming from his, "Drayton hates Hispanics" editorial from years back. Every move they make is one he questions. He plays well to the whiners who pack sports radio, though.

The fifteen minutes I spent listening to that garbage yesterday just made me realize how happy I have been not listening to sports radio. Between that and Rich Lord saying neither the Patriots or the Giants had anything to play for tonight made me put it back on my new Lupe Fiasco CD.