1. Welcome! Please take a few seconds to create your free account to post threads, make some friends, remove a few ads while surfing and much more. ClutchFans has been bringing fans together to talk Houston Sports since 1996. Join us!

Artest Trade: Proof that Moneyball has arrived in the NBA

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by intergalactic, Jul 30, 2008.

  1. intergalactic

    intergalactic Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Jul 1, 2002
    Messages:
    1,277
    Likes Received:
    416
    We just got a former defensive player of the year/20-pt scorer/1-time allstar for a washed-up old player, a late first-round pick who played so well he could have been a mid first-round pick, what will probably be a very late first rounder next year, and 1 million dollars. In other words, from a talent perspective, we ROBBED them.

    Is there any remaining doubt that Moneyball has arrived?

    Before I hear any arguments about basketball being difficult to model statistically, let me say this. Moneyball is not simply about evaluating players. Moneyball is about finding value in commodities that other people are misvaluing.

    As it has turned out, the commodity that many fans and plenty of GMs have misevaluated is not player skill but contracts. While Morey has done only a slightly above average job in drafting (Brooks, Landry), he has been awesome at understanding the value of good and bad contracts.

    First, he understood that he could get a quality starting PF (Scola) by taking on the contract of Jackie Butler and that he could get away with offering almost nothing else, and that this would trump the offers of teams offering actual players.

    Second, he realized just how valuable Bobby Jackson's expiring contract was, which he bamboozled New Orleans into giving up. He traded two players no longer in the rotation, including one with a bad contract (Mike James) for the essential piece in acquiring Artest. Abracadabra.

    Just think back now about the Swift/Gay trade for Battier. While Gay is a promising young player, don't forget the fact that we were able to dump Swift's $5 million/year contract at the same time. That bad contract was worse than the negative value of Jackie Butler's contract. In other words, that "throw-in" was worth more than Luis Scola.

    A few weeks ago I got shot down in a separate thread for suggesting a trade of essentially the same package we just gave up for Artest, but instead for Chauncy Billups. Then consider the fact that Chauncy Billups has 3 more years on his contract at more than $10 million per year. That trade doesn't seem so unreasonable anymore, eh?

    Welcome to the Moneyball era. All hail the Wizard.
     
  2. csux

    csux Rookie

    Joined:
    Jun 26, 2008
    Messages:
    308
    Likes Received:
    1
    I ll reserve the judgement till we hold a larry obrien tropy once again. :D We usually get pretty excited every summer.
     
  3. Asian Sensation

    Joined:
    Oct 29, 1999
    Messages:
    17,883
    Likes Received:
    6,874
    I've got a goooood feeling about this one though.
     
  4. Tornadoofsoul6

    Joined:
    Nov 3, 2007
    Messages:
    1,316
    Likes Received:
    12
    According to scoutingthenba.com; Ron Artest would have a true value about 10 million; and that's including the games he had missed with those injuries (bone spurs etc. etc.). So in Morey's eyes, with any other team as well :eek: , it was a steal for the expiring and picks.
     
  5. TmacsRockets

    TmacsRockets Rookie

    Joined:
    Apr 23, 2008
    Messages:
    472
    Likes Received:
    2
    We should limit Yao and T-mac's minutes now to around 30 mpg until the playoffs so that they don't get hurt.
     
  6. Precision340

    Precision340 Member

    Joined:
    Apr 4, 2007
    Messages:
    3,481
    Likes Received:
    37
    Morey's nickname should be Merlin.. because he IS the wizard!! :D
     
  7. Lady_Di

    Lady_Di Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Apr 11, 2007
    Messages:
    5,354
    Likes Received:
    155
    Where's that Morey's picture that Clutch made? It needs to be posted! :-D
     
  8. agentkirb87

    agentkirb87 Member

    Joined:
    Jul 16, 2008
    Messages:
    1,315
    Likes Received:
    24
    Perhaps it isn't "moneyball" but the general practice of not overpaying for players, and gathering up contracts so that you can be flexible in trades, and doing your homework on draft day so that you can come away with the best possible group of players. Notice Morey hasn't used the full MLE on a player yet, because the majority of players on an MLE contract are overpaid (and he knows this).
     
  9. Spacemoth

    Spacemoth Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Jul 30, 2007
    Messages:
    9,835
    Likes Received:
    4,484
    Think about how pissed off New Orleans fans must be, that instead of blowing tons of money on James Posey they could have had Artest for NOTHING if they simply had held onto Jackson's contract and not acquired Wells, who ended up being useless in the playoffs.
     
  10. Honey Bear

    Honey Bear Contributing Member

    Joined:
    May 8, 2006
    Messages:
    5,102
    Likes Received:
    555
    Well considering Artest is an expiring contract who we have yet to sign to an extension, Moneyball hasn't really shown itself in this situation. It works against us if Artest is a 1 year rental.
     
  11. SuperKev

    SuperKev Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Sep 26, 1999
    Messages:
    1,750
    Likes Received:
    727
    What about the Fakers -they offered up Lamar Odom for Artest and somehow Ron was traded to a rival for nothing... Morey really is a wizard.
     
  12. HowsMyDriving

    HowsMyDriving Member

    Joined:
    Aug 2, 2007
    Messages:
    1,375
    Likes Received:
    102
    i cant believe nobody has said it yet so i will. excellent post. i think you did a good just explaining the mentality that has allowed Morey to turn a team of old and useless players + Tmac & Yao into a very deep and talented roster in an amazingly short amount of time.

    Accumulate assets responsibly. Don't take on bad contracts. Keep yourself flexible. Then, when the time is right, use your accumulated assets to swing for deals when they are most advantageous to your cause.
     
  13. intergalactic

    intergalactic Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Jul 1, 2002
    Messages:
    1,277
    Likes Received:
    416
    I pretty much agree with what you're saying, but I'd argue that what you're describing is in fact the definition of "moneyball." In the original Moneyball book, Michael Lewis makes a point of saying that "moneyball" isn't simply statistical evaluation. A better way to describe it is that it's a constant search for arbitrage opportunities.

    What I think has happened in the NBA in the last few years is that there are some GMs who "get it," i.e. they realize that not overpaying for players and keeping contract flexibility is often more important than accumulating players who are known to be "pretty good." On the other hand, there are other GMs who have completely ignored these principles of efficiency (worst offenders: the Knicks and Nuggets). This leads to opportunities to take advantage of them when they get desperate, like the way the Clippers got Camby for nothing. In fact, I bet if the Clips had played hardball they could have got a 1st round pick thrown in for free.

    Even though people are becoming more and more aware of the importance of contracts, what it comes down to is that trades are ultimately agreed upon by just a handful of people (the GM and the owner). With so few people involved, it's easy for a GM to get emotional about a player and then do something stupid with regard to contracts. Morey's strength seems to be that he's extremely careful about keeping the $ side rational.
     
  14. agentkirb87

    agentkirb87 Member

    Joined:
    Jul 16, 2008
    Messages:
    1,315
    Likes Received:
    24
    I agree with you completely. I think there are a bunch of front offices that really just dont know what they are doing. Its clear that we know what we are doing.
     
  15. leebigez

    leebigez Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Jun 24, 2001
    Messages:
    15,485
    Likes Received:
    586
    I'm not going to chaos the time because I've been calling for Artest for well over a year now. I'm just going to say this and i'll let it go. If morey never makes the Gay and swift for shane 2 yrs ago and if he never makes the howard for james and reed deal Also lets give him credit for getting scola for v-span and butler, right now, Howard 7.3m and swift 6m would be coming off the books at the end of this season. So eventhough he turned a couple of chasing your tail moves back into a very good move, we had to make up for the 1st mistake. As long as he did that, I'm cool. Artest was really a no brainer to me for a while.
     
  16. Mango

    Mango Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Sep 23, 1999
    Messages:
    7,418
    Likes Received:
    1,802
    Since the market is quite small (30 teams), there are likely to be several arbitrage opportunities that can be taken advantage of each year. The limited number of buyers creates an inefficient market.

    Dallas had spent draft picks on the Kidd trade and the Lakers had spent draft picks in the Gasol trade, so neither had the needed assets to interest the Lakers. The Lakers had an expiring contract in Odom, but not draft picks. Detroit would likely have done a swap of Prince for Artest as the principal trade components, but Prince would be on the decline by the time the Kings youth would be seasoned and ready for a strong run in the playoffs. After eliminating a few other teams from the bid process because they lacked the right combination of draft picks and expiring contracts, an inefficient market is created. If Cuban would have invested money to obtain some picks in the recent draft and done a few other salary planning things, then Artest might have become a Maverick rather than a Rocket. By obtaining the expiring contract of Bobby Jackson in Summer 2008, the Kings still have flexibility to seek arbitrage opportunities over the next six months.

    The Rockets do have the 2009 Memphis pick and hopefully will seek to purchase at least another pick in June 2009 to restock. There are likely to be other arbitrage opportunities available as Summer 2010 gets closer, but the Rockets might not have the right assets to take advantage of them.
     
  17. ChenZhen

    ChenZhen Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Aug 20, 2000
    Messages:
    1,779
    Likes Received:
    43
    I'm curious...what are his +/- numbers when he's on the court last year? And for his career?
     
  18. MadMax

    MadMax Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Sep 19, 1999
    Messages:
    73,099
    Likes Received:
    18,948
    I don't think we got over on anybody. Sacramento could have gotten more in terms of immediate talent...but it seems what they want is more immediate flexibility.

    It's not that Sacramento didn't value Artest...it's that they realized they weren't winning with him or without him...and that getting another veteran in his place wasn't going to all of a sudden make them contenders. So they bought flexibility with their asset.
     
  19. BMoney

    BMoney Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Feb 16, 2004
    Messages:
    17,130
    Likes Received:
    10,273
    Until the Rockets win a playoff series all of this discussion is moot. Still, Morey has assembled a roster that is as deep and talented as any team in the league right now and has a coaching staff that is respected, innovative and effective. They also have enough to cap flexibility to make changes to the roster as needed. We can't ask for more than that.

    I have been baffled at the whining that has been going on around here about Morey over the last few months. The amateur GMs have the luxury of throwing enough crap on the wall to see if anything sticks. Then they can pat themselves on the back again about how Morey followed their sage advice. They don't have to answer for such stupid suggestions as going after Ricky freaking Davis, JR Smith or moving Battier to get Artest, or Miller. The best thing about the Artest trade beyond the talent upgrade is that the core whiners around here look all the more silly for whining about Morey and Alexander so much this off season. I imagine as Rockets fans they are happy to be proven wrong.
     
  20. intergalactic

    intergalactic Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Jul 1, 2002
    Messages:
    1,277
    Likes Received:
    416
    Excellent points. I had not thought about it from the small market perspective, and I liked the insights about LA and Dallas. LA's inflexibility is understandable, since they sold off many of their pieces with delayed value (expirings, young players) to Memphis. Your comments also show just how bad the Kidd trade was for Dallas. They are now locked into several very high salaries that will hinder their moves for at least another season.

    I'm not sure about salary cap rules regarding cash transfers, but it seems like these are a tricky way to circumvent the tight constraints built into the salary cap/luxury tax system. i.e. one can use cash to acquire assets, which can then be traded at greater value to teams seeking to dodge the luxury tax double penalties or delay for the future. So I can see why Cuban not opening up his wallet was a key factor.
     
    #20 intergalactic, Jul 30, 2008
    Last edited: Jul 30, 2008

Share This Page

  • About ClutchFans

    Since 1996, ClutchFans has been loud and proud covering the Houston Rockets, helping set an industry standard for team fan sites. The forums have been a home for Houston sports fans as well as basketball fanatics around the globe.

  • Support ClutchFans!

    If you find that ClutchFans is a valuable resource for you, please consider becoming a Supporting Member. Supporting Members can upload photos and attachments directly to their posts, customize their user title and more. Gold Supporters see zero ads!


    Upgrade Now