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Q and A with Daryl Morey

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by dachuda86, Feb 7, 2009.

  1. dachuda86

    dachuda86 Member

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    http://www.nba.com/rockets/news/Q_and_A_with_Daryl_Morey-299705-34.html

    Not sure if this has been posted for discussion but I think it's interesting what he says in this interview... he reveals a lot by discussing his plans... for instance it seems unlikely that they'll make a big trade from what he's saying... it also is interesting what he says about brook's playing Tracy's role in the clutch moment.




    Q&A with Daryl Morey

    Rockets' GM discusses summer of 2010, trade deadline and more





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    Jason Friedman
    Rockets.com Staff WriterHOUSTON - Every couple weeks, Rockets.com sits down with general manager Daryl Morey to get his thoughts on everything Rockets-related. If you've got a question for the GM, send it to us (email link at bottom) and we'll try to get it answered next time.

    JCF: Less than two weeks to go until the trade deadline, so let’s start with that. Is this year’s deadline unique due to the current economic circumstances surrounding it?

    DM: I think there are three things which may make it very active at the trade deadline. One is the playoffs teams and non-playoff teams are fairly well-defined, more than usual at this point. Then there’s the economy obviously and the salary cap will likely be flat to lower, and then I think a lot of teams are trying to set up for the 2010 free agent class. So there will likely be a lot of contractual trades which will not be basketball-related, and contractual deals are generally easier to consummate.

    JCF: Since you brought it up, I have to ask: Has the whole summer of 2010 thing beeb blown completely out of proportion?

    DM: It's overrated. The most important thing is getting good players at good contracts. We’re not saving up for 2010. If there’s an opportunity to get a good player who has money into or after 2010, we won’t hesitate at all. We obviously have kept our flexibility there, but we’re always trying to keep our salary flexibility; but it’s not for 2010 or 2009 or 2011, it’s that we don’t want to bring anyone in unless they’re a good player at a good contract.

    I feel like the league thinks that LeBron’s commercial is real – that there are five LeBrons in 2010. A lot of teams are planning for a big free agent, but then will overspend on a marginal one when they miss out, which is about as big a mistake as you can make.

    Also, we’re trying to win with this core. There’s no wait for 2010 plan.

    JCF: I know you can’t talk specifics about deals you may or may not be working on, but something else has always fascinated me about this time of year: With all the various media outlets, blogs and 24/7 news cycles, how on earth do you manage to play things close to the vest and keep secrets this day and age?

    DM: You know what? Playing things close to the vest is overrated, too. There are some teams that employ a real close to the vest style, but that style also makes it difficult for them to get anything done. So for as much as you might get the once every five years trade where someone shockingly offers you way more than you would be willing to expect for a player on your roster because you’ve been so quiet for years and years, for that limited advantage you are dramatically decreasing your liquidity of actually getting trades done to address your priorities.

    So, to me, close to the vest is overrated and 2010 is overrated.

    JCF: Okay, well that begs the question: What are your priorities then?

    DM: (laughs) That is a good follow-up. You’re good at this. Let’s see… I’ll give a typical GM answer: I should have said it’s important for the other GMs to know your priorities, not necessarily the media (laughs).

    JCF: That’s crushing, Daryl. That really is disappointing.

    DM: I’m sorry. It’s typical GM stuff, but it’s true. We’re trying to add very good players. We’re happy to have a promising future with a lot of good young talent, but we’re trying to win. So we want to continue to add good players who we think can help us out in the playoffs. That’s No. 1. Other priorities, I’ll keep to myself (laughs).

    JCF: Fair enough. How about this then: Is there any way you can put a percentage on the likelihood of pulling off a significant deal before the deadline as opposed to one which is more a minor housecleaning move?

    DM: I think it’s pretty unlikely [we’ll make a major move]. You have to be opportunistic, but generally those don’t happen too often.

    JCF: What’s your biggest concern with the team right now?

    DM: I think it’s really a two-part answer to that. One, the offense is the biggest thing that’s preventing us from being a championship-caliber team. I think, for us, that’s the No. 1 priority. Our defense has been poor, but we know we can recover that and we’ve put a lot of priority on shoring that up since it’s slipped recently. We know we’ve been good at that in the past and that’s what we’ve hung our hat on, so we need to get back to that, but at the same time, the offense has been the ongoing problem for the past five years. We’ve always been middle of the pack and you can’t be middle of the pack and win the Finals.

    When we’ve had everyone available and played inside-out with Yao, we’ve been good enough. But it’s been rare.

    JCF: What, in your mind, is the biggest misconception surrounding this team?

    DM: One, that we’re waiting for 2010. That’s been driving me crazy so I’ll happily get that out there. What else? I don’t know (laughs). I generally don’t know the conceptions, so I don’t know what the misconceptions are. Tell me the conceptions and I’ll tell you which ones are missed.

    JCF: Well here’s one: I think there’s a general feeling that Tracy and Ron can’t consistently play well while they’re on the floor at the same time.

    DM: There’s no doubt they can. When they’ve played together healthy, they’ve played well. But the time they’ve been together has been rare.

    I would say there’s a lot of uncertainty about that since it hasn’t happened much, but we still feel confident that it can work. I mean, Ron hasn’t been Ron. Tracy hasn’t been Tracy, Shane hasn’t been Shane. Not only have they not been together, but even when they’ve been together, it’s been one nagging injury after another. It’s been frustrating.

    JCF: Do you feel confident that they’ll be themselves the second half of the season?

    DM: It doesn’t matter, right? It is what it is. As far as our team planning, we’re factoring in our best guesses of getting back to the level we need for our trade priorities, but whether I’m confident or not it doesn’t change the reality.


    JCF: I heard you discussing something the other day that I found to be fascinating. You were talking about “high leverage moments” late in games. Can you go into the meaning of that term and how it relates to the Rockets?

    DM: I don’t want to go into details since it’s somewhat proprietary, but it basically looks into what people would consider key moments of the game, where the chance of one team winning or the other would shift dramatically. We just add a little more sophistication to it, that’s all.

    JCF: And the Rockets have been very poor in that area, correct?

    DM: Yeah, we’ve been last out of all the playoff teams and we’ve been even worse recently. So we have to address that. I think we might see Aaron a little more, because he’s had some success in those situations.

    JCF: But I imagine a big part of getting better depends on Tracy getting back to being Tracy?

    DM: Yeah, that’s the most important thing. I mean, we’re not counting on Aaron. We’re expecting Tracy to get back to that role.

    JCF: How have you been in recent years in that area?

    DM: We haven’t been the worst, but we’ve not been good. Below average.


    JCF: So if history indicates you’ve been below average and you’ve been even worse this year, do you feel like it’s realistic to expect that to change?

    DM: That’s why we’re looking at things like Aaron, and also coach may try to get Tracy into better situations.

    JCF: I also know you’re a big believer in capitalizing on 2-for-1 situations at the end of quarters. How do you think the team has embraced and executed that philosophy?

    DM: History would show that even two bad shots are better than one. That said, there are game situations which dictate whether it’s a good idea to get a shot off and we trust coach to make those calls. If it’s something where we’ve got a good 8-10 seconds to get a good shot then he often goes for it. If not, his philosophy isn’t to just launch anything, because he wants the team to stay focused on always getting a good shot.

    In the grand scheme, the 2-for-1 – if you do it consistently, at it’s best it probably only shifts one game every two years. So it’s not a huge factor and we trust coaches decision making.

    JCF: Have you shaken off the Memphis game yet?

    DM: I’m still trying to shrug it off. Those games are devastating on so many levels – team confidence, etc. Those are games we need to win to get in the playoffs. Losing games that are expected wins hurt you in two ways. Not only does it likely mean one less win at the end of the season, it also tells you you’re not nearly as good as you want to be. They shift how good of a team you probably are more than anything else, just as big wins on the road against good teams tell you that you are a high quality team.

    We’ve had the highs and lows. We’ve had two of the best wins in the NBA this year – beating Orlando in Orlando and beating Boston in Boston – and we’ve had at least two of the worst losses. If you look at the league as a whole at this point, we’ve got four of the extremes.
     
  2. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member

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    Thanks, I enjoy these.

    I remember Jason Friedman said earlier in the year that there may be a feature at some point where he watches a game with Daryl Morey and picks his brain on what's happening on the floor. I hope that's still in the plans.
     
  3. DaDakota

    DaDakota If you want to know, just ask!

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    Jason writes very well, and asks excellent questions.

    DD
     
  4. Coob5

    Coob5 Member

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    I am happy to see Morey say that we will see more Aaron, because that means less Rafer. Earlier in the season I was against having Brooks start but I remember the games that Rafer was suspended and Brooks really stepped up his game in that starting spot.
     
  5. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member

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    I loved this exchange:

    [rquoter]DM: ... So, to me, close to the vest is overrated and 2010 is overrated.

    JCF: Okay, well that begs the question: What are your priorities then?

    DM: (laughs) That is a good follow-up. You’re good at this. Let’s see… I’ll give a typical GM answer: I should have said it’s important for the other GMs to know your priorities, not necessarily the media (laughs).

    JCF: That’s crushing, Daryl. That really is disappointing. [/rquoter]

    Nice try, Jason. :D

    I think we can guess the priorities. The Rockets are apparently in a win now mode. PG seems to me to be the glaring weakness on the team. More than anything, that could dramatically shore up the offense (which is what is concerns our GM more than anything, for good reasons). They are banking on Aaron to be that guy to step up, particularly in the "high leverage" moments. What that suggests is a lack of confidence in Rafer Alston, their starting PG. If that's the case, I have to think they are looking hard to upgrade there.

    And I'm glad Jason followed up on Morey's comments on "high leverage" moments from the 610 interview (that was a great question from that caller). Morey says its proprietary, but I remember a stats guy who I think used to post on the APBRmetrics boards about game shifting possessions ... and I believe he's employed by the team right now. It might be related to some of his work. I'll try to dig up some of those posts, if I can.
     
    #5 durvasa, Feb 7, 2009
    Last edited: Feb 7, 2009
  6. crash5179

    crash5179 Contributing Member

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    Great interview.

    I really glad the Rockets are not putting all their eggs into 2010
     
  7. DaDakota

    DaDakota If you want to know, just ask!

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    So....OFFENSE is the main problem.....HUH????? Now where have we heard that on this BBS?

    ;)

    DD
     
  8. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member

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    I think we're obviously a better defensive team than offensive team. But at this stage, what's more attainable: becoming a top 10 offensive team, or becoming the best defensive team in the league? We should try to be both, but I imagine focusing on one will take away from the other.
     
  9. DaDakota

    DaDakota If you want to know, just ask!

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    One does not preclude the other, more committment to D has nothing to do with getting more efficient on offense...heck good D leads to steals and fast breaks which lead to better offense.

    And more offensive efficiency leads to less fast breaks and transition buckets going back AT the Rockets.

    It is all connected....but the team has to get players that can score the ball, or get A PLAYER THAT CAN SET THE TABLE for people to score the ball.

    Even a 2nd tier PG like Hinrich makes this team better...and is more effective on this team overall than a more talented player like Artest.

    DD
     
  10. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member

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    This is the thread I was referring to, entitled "game win probabilities and leverage". Ed Kupfer is the analyst who I believe is currently working for us:

    http://sonicscentral.com/apbrmetrics/viewtopic.php?p=1879&sid=f3ff4c26f3bde0109a4804072c8463e9

    [rquoter]
    One of the things that has been brewing for a while, ever since play by play data became publicly available, is a Game State Matrix of win probabilities -- a multidimensional matrix of within game win probabilities. The simplest version of this would have two dimensions, time remaining and team lead. Say the home team was up 4 points with 30 seconds remaining: you'd check the matrix to find that the home team's probability of a win is about 95%. (These probabilities where derived from empirical data and theory, mainly by DeanO.) A more complex matrix could add other relevant factors: possession of the ball being the most important, but timeouts remaining and fouls to give would probably be useful as well. This is a project for the future.

    With the matrix, you can quantify how much a player helped his team to win. For example, same scenario as above home team up 4, 30 seconds remaining. Away team has the ball. Player X takes a three pointer. Before the ball left his hands, the away team probability of a win was 5%. If he makes the shot and cuts the away team deficit to 1 point, the probability of a win increases to 35% -- we can credit Player X with that 30% increase. In theory you could do this for every shot taken, crediting offensive players and debiting the defensive players for giving up the point. In theory, that is. The reality is that it's much too complicated now accounting for defenses and team-mates.

    Something else you can do is calculate the "clutchness" -- what I'll call leverage, borrowing the term from our sabrmetric cousins -- calculate the leverage of any scenario, and see how well a player performs. Leverage can be calculated as the difference between the best case and worst case outcome of a shot (or possession, or steal attempt, or whatever). Using the same example as above, the away player shoots the ball down 4 points with 30 seconds remaining. The leverage of his three point attempt is 35% - 5% = 30%. Only 1/3 of all games have opportunities with that amount of leverage.

    ....
    [/rquoter]
     
  11. Coob5

    Coob5 Member

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    Dude you keep dreaming of getting Hinrich... That's not going to happen buddy. All of the Artest hate that you spread won't help get your boy Hinrich here.
     
  12. DaDakota

    DaDakota If you want to know, just ask!

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    There is no hate for Artest, I think he plays hard. I like Artest.

    However, I think the Rockets have a lot of wings and could use his contract to upgrade another weakness.....PG or penetrating wing.

    Don't confuse asset management and team building with hate.

    DD
     
  13. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member

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    I don't think a penetrating wing should be a priority. Tracy can still penetrate, going left, decently for a wing. He's been doing that the last 2 or 3 games pretty consistently. And Wafer is a good penetrator as well. To me, a Corey Maggette (that's the guy you're looking for, right?) would provide marginal improvement over where are, if any.

    I think PG is the target. I'm hoping Artest could fetch someone better than Hinrich and his 10 million dollar contract, but perhaps not.
     
  14. fmullegun

    fmullegun Contributing Member

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    I think he gets credit based on clicks so we should probably just leave the link and delete the text right?
     
  15. DaDakota

    DaDakota If you want to know, just ask!

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    I agree about the PG...but maybe I should be more clear.....a 2nd penetrating player who can finish would add a lot and be able to take advantage of the attention Yao and Tmac get.

    We need another option to go to when teams clog the middle on Yao, and double Tmac to give the ball up....someone that can attack and take advantage and score or set up other teamates as well.

    And Hinrich would be this team's Mike Bibby a player that others thought was OK, but would FLOURISH on this Rocket's team.....

    DD
     
  16. fmullegun

    fmullegun Contributing Member

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    Oh man this is awesome. How many other GM's would call their system "proprietary".

    He is running this crap like an investment group or something. :D
     
  17. henGoOink

    henGoOink Member

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    nice q and a
     
  18. bob718

    bob718 Contributing Member

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    thanks for highlighting the key parts.

    I hate to read long articles :D
     
  19. worzel gummidge

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    Morey's had that opinion all along but that hasn't been the case with Les.
     
  20. Spacemoth

    Spacemoth Contributing Member

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    I agree with everything Morey said except for two things. First off, let me just say how glad I am to hear that he knows EXACTLY what our problems are; in this case the statistics match the eyeball test--Tracy sucks, and the Rockets suck in general, at closing out close games and getting points when we absolutely need them. This is a problem that has been going on for years, due to one thing or another: Yao's ineffectiveness late game, McGrady's tendency to dribble the air out of the ball and murder the ball movement when he thinks "it's on him", McGrady's tendency to jack shots up, and other teams' realization that we stop running our normal offense under these situations.

    The two things I disagree on are:

    1.The effectiveness of the 2-for-1. I had seen it work in the JVG-era, a little less last year, and I HAVE NOT SEEN IT WORK ONCE THIS YEAR. Every time they try to do it, either Rafer or T-Mac pull up at the 3pt line, brick the shot badly, the other team comes down, takes their sweet time, usually scores, and then the Rockets ALWAYS get a horrible shot off at the buzzer (see above rant for why we suck in those situations). It might work for other teams, but it does NOT work for us.

    2. Our need to improve offense over defense. The past few years that was the case because our defense was top 3 in the league if not top 2, but this year our defense is barely top 10. That's our identity: and if we lose that we're no better than Phoenix giving up its offense to try and play defense with a bunch of stiffs on that side of the floor. I say defense is a MUCH higher worry than offense at this point for the Rockets.
     

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