http://rockets.clutchfans.net/rockets-blazers-behind-the-numbers/ New blog post with a look back at what we've learned from four Rockets/Blazers meetings this season and why it seems to be a favorable matchup for Houston.
Thx for posting this! You mention Mathews being the match-up Portland might try to exploit the most. Isn't he 3-4th option? It's nice to hear that the opponen'ts 4th best player going against our best offensive player is their best matchup. I think the key will be bench play, too. You didn't mention that in the article. Care to add that here in this thread.
Yeah, I didn't go into bench play much because Portland's theoretical edge hadn't really translated much in the earlier matchups. That said, one thing that worried me a bit in the March 9 game was how easily Mo Williams attacked on penetration. He jacked up way too many shots (5-of-15), of course, but the 11 assists were a lot. I do like that Lin got some confidence himself in that game, though (26 points). If those two cancel each other out, I like our chances. I really think it comes down to whether the Rockets can make the offense work while playing Asik/Howard together for 15-ish minutes (most notably, down the stretch in the fourth quarter). I'm encouraged by what happened in November, and obviously McHale wanted it prior to the last game. If it works, then yeah -- Portland's most favorable matchup probably becomes Matthews vs. Harden, and that's not good news for them. I'd guess series ends in 5 games, if that happens. On the other hand, if we have to go small for offense and Aldridge torches Jones/Harden/Parsons/Motiejunas/insert player here, I think it goes 7. I'd still like the Rockets' chances, but that to me is the difference between a short and long series.
Nice write-up. I agree with you that we'll see Twin Towers to start and the Bev, Lin, Harden, CP, DH lineup a lot, especially to close out games. And, let's hope Harden will elevate his focus on D come playoff time like TMac used to. Other random thoughts: I have nightmares of TJones trying to guard LA; I hope Lin can hold Mo Williams; I think we'll only see the 4 guard lineup if CP is having a bad game. I have a pretty good feeling overall.
Matthews playing well heading into the playoffs, too. Also, who's ready for the inevitable footage of Yao's Rockets beating Portland to get past the first round? So happy, yet so sad...
We matchup terribly with you. However, I disagree with a couple of the assertions in the article. First, I think our biggest mismatch will be Aldridge. If he can assert himself, be it against hometown boy TJ (Jefferson HS) by using his length or pulling out Asik and exploiting his speed, then we stand a chance. If not, we're toast. Second, the critical part of the matchups for us will be how Lillard deals with Beverley. PB seemed to show no ill effects in the Pels game from his meniscus, but that's an injury that swells up later. How he felt the next day is more important. If his lateral movement is limited, then that will help Lillard. However, if Lillard lets Beverley get into his head, as he has done in the previous four matchups, then we're dead. Third, Wes has been okay, but he can't hold a candle to Harden. Harden is going to get his 28-30. Wes might get 20, but that won't be enough. Fourth, Parsons has owned Batum. Either Nico steps up his game and forces Parsons to play harder on defense, or it's going to be a short series. Fifth, it will be foul trouble that affects this series. If we can't keep Lopez and Matthews in the game, then we're in real trouble. Similarly, if Beverley or Asik get themselves in foul trouble, then Lillard and Aldridge are going to go off. My heart tells me the Blazers win. However, my head tells me differently. You guys are a terrible matchup with us. For us to win, we have to have everything go right. You have some slack in the line.
I think the key for the Blazer is not Lillard or Aldridge. It's Matthews and Batum. When those two play wells, they are hard to beat. When they play poorly, they usually lose. Unfortunately Harden has to guard one of them. Might make sense to switch Parson on whoever is hot.
Great write up. However what about McHale vs Stotts? WHo has the edge? As far as coaching goes, a large part of playoffs come down to making the right substitution and right rotations at the right time and calling timeouts when needed. Also the ability to draw up a play to get a basket when needed.
I think this is what will determine weather we have a tough time in this series or not. Portland excel in rebounding, i think they are actually number 1 in the league. If we win the rebounding matchup, which i think we are quite capable of doing we win this series in 5. Ive said for months now i think we matchup perfectly vs portland, hopefully it shows on the court.
How far we go in the playoffs will have a lot to d with Harden's defense. Will he step up? lets hope so. We already know the Rockets can score enough to go far, it's just defense. Another big part of going far is bench play. It helps that JLin and Asik are back to the bench, so they can spark something.
DMo has played much improved defense. I think he can spell Asik on LMA to help keep Howard fresh and out of foul trouble. A healthy Beverly will be the deciding factor though.
I think the Blazers are too soft. I don't see them getting us in foul trouble, because they don't draw many fouls. On the other hand, the Rockets will attack all day long.
Defensive rebounding will be important for us, since we suck at it and Portland is a good offensive rebounding team.
OP was dead on in this piece. I appreciate the practice insight. It's good to know the Rox brass understands how effective Asik is defending LaMarcus and that they are keeping that weapon loaded. If we don't use Asik on LaMarcus, Portland could pull an upset. If we deploy Asik on LaMarcus Portland could still win but it would take a miracle. The Portland fan on here that thinks LaMarcus can beat Asik with speed hasn't watched enough video. Only way LaMarcus can beat Asik is by altering his release on his jumper which usually spells doom for his accuracy.
The analysys doesn't count rebounding, 5on5 game, transition game, tactical resources... I see the Blazers switching Batum/Matthews with Harden, and if we're going to play minutes with Asik + Howard in the paint... Harden is NOT going to score 30. If we need Asik to stop Lamarcus, we are going to have to rebound and score on transition, because it's gonna be difficult in stagnant offense. This is a team we can score on transition, if we rebound. Harden actually trying to defend is crucial for the Rockets. I think these will be a more defensive series than previously expected. We're going to see very tough games. And help from bench by Lin, Motiejunas, Hamilton, it will be VERY welcomed offensively. The Lin vs Williams is an important matchup.
