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[ClutchFans] Rockets-Blazers: Behind the Numbers

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by The Cat, Apr 14, 2014.

  1. redhotrox

    redhotrox Contributing Member

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    And this is a really good further read, breaking down the player vs. player matchups even more: http://stats.nba.com/featured/playoffs_2014_blazers_rockets.html
     
  2. maxiep

    maxiep Rookie

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    I think that's spot on. I don't think it will matter to you if LA goes for 25-30 ppg and 10-15 rbg. Especially in the playoffs, I think it will be difficult for refs to put guys like Harden, Howard or Aldridge in foul trouble; they'll let them play.

    Right now, however, there's little doubt that Lillard is highly distracted by Beverley. Until he shows he can ignore his antics and play his game, you have a huge advantage. And where's he's especially effective is in gumming up the ball at the point of attack. If we're only getting our offense going with 10-12 seconds in the shot clock, we're toast. However, if we start running a play with 16-18 seconds, we'll be able to pass it around enough for an open look.
     
  3. maxiep

    maxiep Rookie

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    In your second link, those are some terrifying numbers for we Blazer fans. Howard destroyed Lopez statistically. And what he did to Freeland could best be described as child abuse.
     
  4. fluors

    fluors Member

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    Game Stats for the last four games aginst Portland are listed below. Note that James Harden actually played his best defense against Portland last game, March 09, 2014, with a very efficient DRTG=97. He also played good defense the first time round back in January 20, 2014, posting a mediocre DRTG=117, but we won. He also didn’t defend well in the only Houston loss of this series on December 12, 2013, with another mediocre DRTG=118. I can’t recall whether his injury coincided with the December, 2013 and January, 2014 losses or whether the reason lies elsewhere. But here's the good news: Harden's 2013-2014 Defensive Numbers (DRTG) against Portland suggests that he certainly CAN do the job. Of course, all this depends on how you apply these numbers and whether you actually trust and/or accept it as useful information. All data taken from: http://www.basketball-reference.com...equest=1&team_id=HOU&opp_id=POR&is_playoffs=N. Click the Box Score button to retrieve the data posted below.

    March 09, 2014 @ Houston (WIN)<script type="text/javascript" src="http://widgets.sports-reference.com/wg.fcgi?css=1&site=bbr&url=%2Fboxscores%2F201403090HOU.html&div=div_HOU_basic"></script>
    <script type="text/javascript" src="http://widgets.sports-reference.com/wg.fcgi?css=1&site=bbr&url=%2Fboxscores%2F201403090HOU.html&div=div_HOU_advanced"></script>
    Monday, January 20, 2014 @ Houston (WIN)<script type="text/javascript" src="http://widgets.sports-reference.com/wg.fcgi?css=1&site=bbr&url=%2Fboxscores%2F201401200HOU.html&div=div_HOU_basic"></script>
    <script type="text/javascript" src="http://widgets.sports-reference.com/wg.fcgi?css=1&site=bbr&url=%2Fboxscores%2F201401200HOU.html&div=div_HOU_advanced"></script>
    December 12, 2013 @ Portland (LOSS)<script type="text/javascript" src="http://widgets.sports-reference.com/wg.fcgi?css=1&site=bbr&url=%2Fboxscores%2F201312120POR.html&div=div_HOU_basic"></script>
    <script type="text/javascript" src="http://widgets.sports-reference.com/wg.fcgi?css=1&site=bbr&url=%2Fboxscores%2F201312120POR.html&div=div_HOU_advanced"></script>
    November 05, 2013 @ Portland (WIN)<script type="text/javascript" src="http://widgets.sports-reference.com/wg.fcgi?css=1&site=bbr&url=%2Fboxscores%2F201311050POR.html&div=div_HOU_basic"></script>
    <script type="text/javascript" src="http://widgets.sports-reference.com/wg.fcgi?css=1&site=bbr&url=%2Fboxscores%2F201311050POR.html&div=div_HOU_advanced"></script>
     
  5. fluors

    fluors Member

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    Sorry. I made a mistake above. I meant to say that Harden best defensive performances came in March 09, 2014: DRTG=97, and November 05, 2013: DRTG=100. His poor defensive outings occurred on January 20, 2014: DRTG =117, and, in December 12, 2013: DRTG=118. But you can review the data. I don't know how to edit a post.
     
  6. BMoney

    BMoney Contributing Member

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    I just want McHale to adjust quickly if Jones is getting abused.
     
  7. The Jabberwock

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    GOOD JOB FLUORS!

    Here's my shot at it, with 2 differences:

    1. To shorten things up - I looked at totals & averages, not individual games.
    2. I focused on lineups, not players.

    Here goes:

    Lineups' production per 48 minutes.

    Listed are the only 7 lineups that played at least 10 minutes in total.
    Source: stats.nba. see here

    [​IMG]

    What stands out is that we had only one really negative lineup against the Blazers this year.

    If Omri's game has deteriorated - I'd use a lot of Parsons as 4 & Harden as 3.

    Problem is - that's our starter lineup... :(

    Sample is very small, and I am certain that in part it was just a case of 2 really bad games for TJ (It happens...),
    but perhaps we should be prepared to consider varying our main lineup in this series, especially at the 4-spot.

    What worked well was Casspi, Parsons, D-Mo & Asik at the PF.
    however - the last 2 options (D-Mo / Asik at the 4) were only tried in one game.

    Looks like small-ball and even extra-small-ball (PBev + Lin + Harden) worked best for us against Portland this season.


    Here's some advanced stats too, sorted by Offensive Rating:

    Source: see here
    [​IMG]

    Contrary to expectations, lineups with Lin tended to score less on offense,
    but they also allowed less on defense!

    The lineup with D-Mo was stellar on offense but bad on defense
    (I remember this. I think it was in that 4Q run & gun spree when Motiejunas was just great.
    He had a coast-to-coast fast break in this one, I believe. Most of it was garbage time, though)

    Also interesting: The Twin Tower lineup was among the lowest on rebounding...
    The best in this section were the lineups with D-Mo, Omri & Cisco.

    Another way to rate our lineups for defensive ability is to check the opponents' stats.

    Here are the same 7 lineups measured by opponent (Blazers) production,
    sorted by the Blazers' FG% against each lineup:

    Source: see here
    [​IMG]

    The purest small-ball lineup (with Bev & Lin together and CP25 at the PF)
    was great defensively, and held Portland to only 28% from the field.
    The exact opposite lineup - Twin Towers - was just as good, allowing 31%.

    These two lineups also forced the most turnovers per 48 minutes.

    Next in line, with a lesser defensive strength, were the 2 lineups with Casspi in them (39% & 40%).

    The lineups with Jones and D-Mo were the weakest defensively
    (But the latter was in garbage time after a blowout, to be fair)
     
  8. The Jabberwock

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    Correction!!! That's the right post

    GOOD JOB FLUORS!

    Here's my shot at it, with 2 differences:

    1. To shorten things up - I looked at totals & averages, not individual games.
    2. I focused on lineups, not players.

    Here goes:

    Lineups' production per 48 minutes.

    Listed are the only 7 lineups that played at least 10 minutes in total.
    Source: stats.nba. see here

    [​IMG]

    What stands out is that we had only one really negative lineup against the Blazers this year.

    Problem is - that's our starter lineup... :(

    Sample is very small, and I am certain that in part it was just a case of 2 really bad games for TJ (It happens...),
    but perhaps we should be prepared to consider varying our main lineup in this series, especially at the 4-spot.

    What worked well was Casspi, Parsons, D-Mo & Asik at the PF.
    however - the last 2 options (D-Mo / Asik at the 4) were only tried in one game.

    Looks like small-ball and even extra-small-ball (PBev + Lin + Harden) worked best for us against Portland this season.

    If Omri's game has deteriorated - I'd use a lot of Parsons as 4 & Harden as 3.


    Here's some advanced stats too, sorted by Offensive Rating:

    Source: see here
    [​IMG]

    Contrary to expectations, lineups with Lin tended to score less on offense,
    but they also allowed less on defense!

    The lineup with D-Mo was stellar on offense but bad on defense
    (I remember this. I think it was in that 4Q run & gun spree when Motiejunas was just great.
    He had a coast-to-coast fast break in this one, I believe. Most of it was garbage time, though)

    Also interesting: The Twin Tower lineup was among the lowest on rebounding...
    The best in this section were the lineups with D-Mo, Omri & Cisco.

    Another way to rate our lineups for defensive ability is to check the opponents' stats.

    Here are the same 7 lineups measured by opponent (Blazers) production,
    sorted by the Blazers' FG% against each lineup:

    Source: see here
    [​IMG]

    The purest small-ball lineup (with Bev & Lin together and CP25 at the PF)
    was great defensively, and held Portland to only 28% from the field.
    The exact opposite lineup - Twin Towers - was just as good, allowing 31%.

    These two lineups also forced the most turnovers per 48 minutes.

    Next in line, with a lesser defensive strength, were the 2 lineups with Casspi in them (39% & 40%).

    The lineups with Jones and D-Mo were the weakest defensively
    (But the latter was in garbage time after a blowout, to be fair)
     
  9. fluors

    fluors Member

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    Good work, Jabberwock, your data supports the conclusion that many here reached based on the naked eye test: TJones does not play well against Portland, for reasons that have been well documented (Lamarcus Aldridge). Your data shows that our starting lineup against the Blazers this season: Howard-Harden-Beverly-Parsons-TJones resulted in a team worst Plus/Minus (-48); the fewest points scored per 100 possessions on offense (OffRating=98pts), and the most points given up per 100 possessions (DefRtg=140 pts). I don’t know if the negative trends are down to TJones alone but his presence in the starting lineup against Portland has not been beneficial; thus far.

    You’re probably right that TJones had two uncharacteristically bad games offensively and defensively against Portland this year but his defensive efforts against Portland pretty much reflect his ESPN’s 2013-2014 Defensive Real Plus Minus (DRPM= -2.06); TJones is ranked #83 among the 90 Power Forwards in the league on defense. That can be made up for with offensive; i.e., James Harden, whose DRPM (via ESPN) is -2.66. But that huge negative on defense is offset by an insanely efficient Offensive Real Plus Minus (ORPM) of nearly +6.0. Problem is, TJones is unable to score against the Blazers. In fact, he scores fewer points against the Blazers than any other Western Conference team. So, if TJones can’t get it going offensively, and, he can’t slow down LMA, he is rendered ineffective against the Blazers (the reason behind the -48 Plus/Minus that you posted). I hope he plays well tonight, and in this series, but based on the data, you have to at least consider the possibility that Portland might be his Achilles Heel. Every Rockets player has one….some even have more than one.

    Not surprised that the small lineup of Harden-Lin-Beverley works well. Lin plays excellent defense when on the court with Beverley because he feeds off Bev's intensity. Beverley seems to get good looks on offense because of the spacing created by the threat of two attacking guards (Harden and Lin). James likes it because no longer has to contend with the speedy Lilliputians in this league and can focus solely on scoring.



     
  10. Benchwarmer

    Benchwarmer Member

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    Throw Josh Powell in there, see what he's got.
     
  11. autoprt

    autoprt Member

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    if anything just to foul the crap out of aldridge. for next game have to hold him to about 24 and liliard to about 18 and we'll have a chance.
     
  12. FTW Rockets FTW

    FTW Rockets FTW Contributing Member

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    Like I said, great write up but you did not recognize a key part of the match up - coaching.

    McHale got thoroughly outcoached and out thought by Stotts most of the game.
     
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