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[ESPN Insider] Beware of NBA's biggest ball hogs

Discussion in 'NBA Dish' started by Wooglin, Nov 29, 2013.

  1. Wooglin

    Wooglin Member

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    [It may be Black Friday for most folks, but here in the land of Per Diem, today is Black Hole Friday.

    Yes, Black Hole Friday.

    On Thanksgiving Day, I identified the players who should be giving thanks for their buckets and to whom they owe their gratitude. But we're going to look at the flip side on Black Hole Friday: where basketballs go but never come back. The ball hogs. The gunners.

    We have a brand-spanking-new trove of numbers from SportVU that will help us expose those who monopolize the basketball and keep it from their teammates. No longer must we be shackled by the confines of the box score. Thanks to 3-D cameras in every arena, we can see exactly how many passes a player makes, how many seconds he possesses the ball, and how often he dribbles.

    In other words, we can identify the biggest ball hogs in the game. For these purposes, we're going to go by the purest sense of the term: the player who hogs the ball and rarely passes. To identify those, we'll see how many seconds each player possesses the ball on average between passes. In the chart below, I've listed the player's average time of possession in seconds (TOP) and his average passes per game, which I'll use to arrive at his average hog rate, which is expressed in seconds.

    Those names?

    TOP 10 BALL HOGS IN THE NBA
    Longest time of possession between passes (minimum 250 minutes; stats through Tuesday)

    Player Team MPG TOP Passes Hog Rate
    Russell Westbrook OKC 33.5 390 50.2 7.8 seconds
    Brandon Jennings DET 35.4 432 59.1 7.3 seconds
    Stephen Curry GSW 34.0 366 50.7 7.2 seconds
    Victor Oladipo ORL 27.6 258 35.9 7.2 seconds
    Eric Bledsoe PHO 34.9 390 56.3 6.9 seconds
    Isaiah Thomas SAC 28.6 312 46.3 6.7 seconds
    James Harden HOU 39.5 270 41.4 6.5 seconds
    Damian Lillard POR 36.9 420 64.5 6.5 seconds
    Ty Lawson DEN 36.4 384 59.6 6.4 seconds
    Goran Dragic PHO 33.2 336 52.6 6.4 seconds
    Kyrie Irving CLE 34.6 360 56.4 6.4 seconds
    As we can see here, Westbrook possesses the ball for 7.8 seconds between passes, which is the highest rate in the league by a healthy margin. That's not an indictment on only him. Thunder coach Scott Brooks doesn't escape blame, either, as his offensive system doesn't exactly predicate itself on ball movement. But it's worth noting that Westbrook's backup, Reggie Jackson, possesses the ball for 5.8 seconds on average between passes (although to be fair, more than a quarter of Jackson's minutes have come alongside Westbrook, where he's not bringing up the ball).

    This certainly won't help Westbrook's reputation next to Kevin Durant, perhaps the best scoring weapon in the game. At this pace, Westbrook will have one of the least efficient high usage seasons ever, as he's using 33 percent of the Thunder's possessions on the floor while registering a pathetic 47.2 percent true shooting percentage (Durant is currently at 61.3 percent). Westbrook may want to defer to Durant more as the point guard struggles to return from his knee injury.

    Elsewhere on the list, you may be surprised to find Curry, who's averaging a career-high 8.8 assists this season. But Curry makes his passes count; 18 percent of his passes turn into assists, which is the highest rate in the league, even above Chris Paul. Yes, it helps to have Klay Thompson, Andre Iguodala and David Lee around. Also, it's hard to fault Curry for "hogging" the ball when he's one of the most efficient point guards in the game; Westbrook doesn't have that excuse.

    On the other end of the spectrum, Jose Calderon holds the ball for just 4 seconds between passes, the lowest rate among point guards. Calderon wastes no time to get the ball moving to his teammates.

    Who's the most selfless player in the league by this metric? Shane Battier, who was once dubbed by The New York Times as "The No Stats All-Star." Here's a Battier stat for you: the Heat veteran wing averages one pass per second of possession this season. Heat coach Erik Spoelstra emphasizes constant ball movement in his "pace-and-space" offense, and Battier represents the ideal. If Battier dribbles, something's gone horribly wrong.

    All of the players on the above list are ball handlers, which makes sense if you're looking for a pure ball hog. But that's not typically what we imagine ball hogs to be. If you've ever played pickup ball, you know the Black Hole guy. He's the one who never gives the ball back. As soon as you pass him the ball, better run back on defense -- the shot's going up.

    We didn't incorporate shots in that last metric, but how can we talk about ball hogging without shots? Let's correct that. Here's a list of players who have the lowest rates of passes per shot attempt, or what I like to call the Black Hole Rate. The passing and shooting numbers below are listed on a per-game basis.

    TOP 10 BLACK HOLES IN THE NBA
    Lowest rate of passes per shot attempt (minimum 250 minutes and 10 shots per game; stats through Tuesday's games)

    Player Team Passes Shots Black Hole Rate
    Klay Thompson GSW 19.9 15.3 1.30
    Eric Gordon NO 20.2 12.9 1.56
    Nick Young LAL 16.9 10.7 1.58
    Marcus Thornton SAC 17.2 10.6 1.63
    Rudy Gay TOR 33.5 20.3 1.65
    DeMar DeRozan TOR 33.2 19.3 1.72
    J.J. Redick LAC 21.2 12.1 1.76
    Kevin Martin MIN 30.9 17.5 1.77
    Carmelo Anthony NYK 39.8 22.2 1.79
    Dion Waiters CLE 23.1 12.4 1.86
    Well, if you can shoot it like Thompson, maybe you can get away with not sharing the ball. But the Golden State shooting guard fires up nearly as many shots as passes when he's out there, which is pretty remarkable. The Warriors probably don't care, as long as he continues shooting 50 percent from the floor and 46.8 percent from downtown.

    We can't say the same for Gordon, Thornton or Gay, who have collectively shot 38.3 percent from the floor this season. These are the Black Hole guys you don't want to see on your team. For perspective, Gay fires up five more shots per game than James, but dishes out 14 fewer passes. Also, Gay is shooting 37.5 percent from the floor. In related news, Gay has banned his team from looking at the stat sheets in the locker room.

    Another interesting player on this list is Redick, who has transformed his game since his Orlando days. Before he was traded to the Milwaukee Bucks last season, Redick averaged 4.4 assists per game as a primary playmaker for the talent-deprived Magic. Now playing for the Clippers, he has left the playmaking duties up to Paul, which is probably the smart move. As a result, Redick's dishing numbers have taken a dive.

    Like Redick and Thompson, Martin is out there to shoot, and he does it well. The rest of the list features the usual suspects in Anthony, Waiters and DeRozan. Feel free to pass it to them, because their respective franchises have hinged their playoff hopes on their success. Just don't expect the ball back.]

    As much as we complain about Harden holding the ball, at least he's not Westbrook!
     
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  2. Lihao

    Lihao Member

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    you do know those list except Harden (play like a PG) are all PG ? it would take a few seconds for them to bring the ball to the front court.
     
  3. Shaud

    Shaud Member

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    Pretty much sums up the stupidity of this stat.
     
  4. shastarocket

    shastarocket Contributing Member

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    Isn't Oladipo a SG? I haven't watched him play too much, but I assumed Jameer Nelson is the PG, unless Oladipo handles the ball when playing next to Afflalo.

    Also funny seeing Irving and Waiters listed under top ten ballhogs and blackholes, respectively, considering the circumstances.
     
  5. DaDakota

    DaDakota If you want to know, just ask!

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    Wow that was a really cool read.

    DD
     
  6. heypartner

    heypartner Contributing Member

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    I'm not in favor of comparing PGs to other positions in terms of time of possession between passes. Steve Nash, Magic Johnson and Stockton would all make the top 10, too. That's their job. Paul, too.

    Ball control offenses vs passing offenses ... ball control does not mean ISO.

    There is nothing wrong with PGs probing the court by dribbling vs passing. It is highly effective and can keep TOs down.

    Maybe Magic wouldn't make top 10 if you count fast breaks.
     

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